The benefits of the Kyoto Protocol to developing countries

The Kyoto Protocol relies on incentive-based regulations layered underneath a global cap on net emissions of greenhouse gases. Within the Kyoto Protocol are opportunities and constraints for signatory nations. Of concern to developing nations are the constraints the Kyoto Protocol could place on future growth. We examine the constraints and the opportunities offered to developing countries within the Kyoto Protocol. By identifying the potential costs and benefits the Kyoto Protocol has to offer to developing countries and by examining the incentives each create, we hope to spark serious investigations into ways to minimize the potential costs of entering the Kyoto Protocol and take full advantage of the potential benefits.

Modelling forest management within a global vegetation model—Part 2: Model validation from a tree to a continental scale

The construction of a new forest management module (FMM) within the ORCHIDEE global vegetation model (GVM) allows a realistic simulation of biomass changes during the life cycle of a forest, which makes many biomass datasets suitable as validation data for the coupled ORCHIDEE-FM GVM. This study uses three datasets to validate ORCHIDEE-FM at different temporal and spatial scales: permanent monitoring plots, yield tables, and the French national inventory data. The last dataset has sufficient geospatial coverage to allow a novel type of validation: inventory plots can be used to produce continuous maps that can be compared to continuous simulations for regional trends in standing volumes and volume increments. ORCHIDEE-FM performs better than simple statistical models for stand-level variables, which include tree density, basal area, standing volume, average circumference and height, when management intensity and initial conditions are known: model efficiency is improved by an average of 0.11, and its average bias does not exceed 25%. The performance of the model is less satisfying for tree-level variables, including extreme circumferences, tree circumference distribution and competition indices, or when management and initial conditions are unknown. At the regional level, when climate forcing is accurate for precipitation, ORCHIDEE-FM is able to reproduce most productivity patterns in France, such as the local lows of needleleaves in the Parisian basin and of broadleaves in south-central France. The simulation of water stress effects on biomass in the Mediterranean region, however, remains problematic, as does the simulation of the wood increment for coniferous trees. These pitfalls pertain to the general ORCHIDEE model rather than to the FMM. Overall, with an average bias seldom exceeding 40%, the performance of ORCHIDEE-FM is deemed reliable to use it as a new modelling tool in the study of the effects of interactions between forest management and climate on biomass stocks of forests across a range of scales from plot to country.     

Inverse calculation approaches for source determination in hazardous chemical releases

Source determination is vital in decision making and emergency planning involving hazardous chemical releases. This work was concentrated on inverse calculation approaches for source determination as well as current trends and future perspectives. In this paper, these different approaches are reviewed by dividing them into two categories: probability modeling methods and optimization modeling methods. The traits of these approaches are comparatively analyzed. Then it is shown how these approaches behave when applied to practical cases, and their feasibility, applicability, stability, and limitation in determining the location and strength are presented. It is argued that when experimenting with potential terrorist attacks involving hazardous chemical releases, observation points should be around the main line of the downwind direction when the source is known; while the uniform distribution of observation points is an efficient solution for unknown incidents. Probability modeling methods are demonstrated to be insufficient during emergency responses due to their lacking of enough prior information of unknown parameters, while optimization modeling methods are efficient and become a new trend in source determination. Findings reflect an urgent need for the development of high-accuracy detectors and further research of data transmission techniques in order to ensure the validity of these approaches.     

Potential world garbage and waste carbon sequestration

To offset the carbon dioxide released by fossil fuels, a proposed sequestration strategy relies on burying garbage and waste in landfills. This paper roughly estimates the current annual world supply of carbonaceous waste to be 35.5 billion metric tons and to contain about 18 billion metric tons of carbon. If landfills received all of this waste, sequestration of more than 5.6 billion metric tons of carbon seems theoretically possible—an amount well in excess of the 3.3 billion metric tons which the atmosphere is currently gaining.     

Translating habitat class to land cover to map area of habitat of terrestrial vertebrates

Area of habitat (AOH) is defined as the “habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range” and is calculated by subtracting areas of unsuitable land cover and elevation from the range. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Habitats Classification Scheme provides information on species habitat associations, and typically unvalidated expert opinion is used to match habitat to land-cover classes, which generates a source of uncertainty in AOH maps. We developed a data-driven method to translate IUCN habitat classes to land cover based on point locality data for 6986 species of terrestrial mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles. We extracted the land-cover class at each point locality and matched it to the IUCN habitat class or classes assigned to each species occurring there. Then, we modeled each land-cover class as a function of IUCN habitat with (SSG, using) logistic regression models. The resulting odds ratios were used to assess the strength of the association between each habitat and land-cover class. We then compared the performance of our data-driven model with those from a published translation table based on expert knowledge. We calculated the association between habitat classes and land-cover classes as a continuous variable, but to map AOH as binary presence or absence, it was necessary to apply a threshold of association. This threshold can be chosen by the user according to the required balance between omission and commission errors. Some habitats (e.g., forest and desert) were assigned to land-cover classes with more confidence than others (e.g., wetlands and artificial). The data-driven translation model and expert knowledge performed equally well, but the model provided greater standardization, objectivity, and repeatability. Furthermore, our approach allowed greater flexibility in the use of the results and uncertainty to be quantified. Our model can be modified for regional examinations and different taxonomic groups.     

Role of predator switching in an eco-epidemiological model with disease in the prey

In the present paper we propose a modification of a basic eco-epidemiological model by incorporating predator switching among susceptible and infected prey population. A local and global study of the basic model is performed around the disease-free boundary equilibrium and the interior equilibrium to estimate important parameter thresholds that control disease eradication and species coexistence. Next we analyze the switching model from the same perspective in order to elucidate the role of switching on disease dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out to justify analytical results.     

Emissions trading of global and local pollutants, pollution havens and free riding

In the presence of local (sulfur) and global (carbon) pollutants, we examine the pollution haven hypothesis and free riding behavior. Under domestic emissions trading, poorer Southern countries become pollution havens when free trade opens up whenever sulfur damage functions are linear or when sulfur levels in equilibrium are not higher in the South. With global trading of carbon permits, the pollution haven effect emerges in equilibrium whenever the convex sulfur damage functions are nonlinear. Countries that do not participate in a Global Protocol designed to reduce carbon emissions enjoy double benefits, stemming from free riding and cleaner local environments.     

Database-driven models of the world's Large Marine Ecosystems

We present a new methodology for database-driven ecosystem model generation and apply the methodology to the world's 66 currently defined Large Marine Ecosystems. The method relies on a large number of spatial and temporal databases, including FishBase, SeaLifeBase, as well as several other databases developed notably as part of the Sea Around Us project. The models are formulated using the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling approach and software. We tune the models by fitting to available time series data, but recognize that the models represent only a first-generation of database-driven ecosystem models. We use the models to obtain a first estimate of fish biomass in the world's LMEs. The biggest hurdles at present to further model development and validation are insufficient time series trend information, and data on spatial fishing effort.     

Characteristics of plankton Hg bioaccumulations based on a global data set and the implications for aquatic systems with aggravating nutrient imbalance

• Hg bioaccumulation by phytoplankton varies among aquatic ecosystems. • Active Hg uptake may exist for the phytoplankton in aquatic ecosystems. • Impacts of nutrient imbalance on food chain Hg transfer should be addressed. The bioaccumulation of mercury (Hg) in aquatic ecosystem poses a potential health risk to human being and aquatic organism. Bioaccumulations by plankton represent a crucial process of Hg transfer from water to aquatic food chain. However, the current understanding of major factors affecting Hg accumulation by plankton is inadequate. In this study, a data set of 89 aquatic ecosystems worldwide, including inland water, nearshore water and open sea, was established. Key factors influencing plankton Hg bioaccumulation (i.e., plankton species, cell sizes and biomasses) were discussed. The results indicated that total Hg (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations in plankton in inland waters were significantly higher than those in nearshore waters and open seas. Bioaccumulation factors for the logarithm of THg and MeHg of phytoplankton were 2.4–6.0 and 2.6–6.7 L/kg, respectively, in all aquatic ecosystems. They could be further biomagnified by a factor of 2.1–15.1 and 5.3–28.2 from phytoplankton to zooplankton. Higher MeHg concentrations were observed with the increases of cell size for both phyto- and zooplankton. A contrasting trend was observed between the plankton biomasses and BAF_MeHg, with a positive relationship for zooplankton and a negative relationship for phytoplankton. Plankton physiologic traits impose constraints on the rates of nutrients and contaminants obtaining process from water. Nowadays, many aquatic ecosystems are facing rapid shifts in nutrient compositions. We suggested that these potential influences on the growth and composition of plankton should be incorporated in future aquatic Hg modeling and ecological risk assessments.