Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Vulnerability assessment of sea-level rise in Viti Levu, Fiji Islands

Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds: ‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change.     

Climate hazards: Lessons from recent events in the United States

Three recent cases of climate extremes are studied to identify human impacts and response strategies and to identify common characteristics that may help illuminate the nature of climate hazards. The 1980 heat wave in the central United States, 1981 cold wave in Boston, Massachusetts, and recent flooding and lake level rise in northern Utah, illustrate several important aspects of climate hazards that separate them from the more traditional set of catastrophic events (e.g. tornadoes, hurricanes and earthquakes) usually dealt with by hazards research and management. Among those characteristics are an emphasis on health impacts rather than physical damage, accumulative effects rather than short shocks, a tendency for impacts to accrue to certain socio-economic classes, and relatively slow onset. The management and research implications of these hazard characteristics are explored.     

建立绿色包装系统的可行性研究报告

笔者从我国包装的现状分析入手，探讨建立绿色包装系统的可行性和必要性，提出建立绿色包装系统的具体措施和实施方案。     

绿色化学浅议

绿色化学是更高层次的化学，其产生是为了避免或减少化学过程对人类健康和环境造成的危害，由此出现的技术是环境友好的技术。绿色化学的发展能节省资源、减少环境污染，并将成为可持续发展战略的核心内容之一。     

建立能够体现化工行业特点的行业排放标准初探

化工行业具有传统的工业类型和新兴产业交叉渗透的特点。现有的污染物排放标准因涵盖行业过多、细化内容不够、可操作性不强、行业特点不突出,故不太适应化工行业的发展,建立新的化工行业污染物排放标准势在必行。文章概要介绍了我国现有污染物排放标准,分析了美国、欧盟、日本、德国等一些国家和组织的排放标准,提议建立能够体现化工行业特点的行业排放标准,以达到淘汰落后工艺和促进清洁工艺的目的。     

排污费资金使用相关制度改革探讨

从原有排污费资金使用相关制度存在的弊端为切入点 ,提出了新的排污费资金使用制度出台的必要性 ,进而对贯彻执行新的排污费资金使用制度应坚持的原则进行了阐述。     

发展绿色经济是21世纪的必要抉择

发展绿色经济是各个国家处理环境与发展关系，实现可持续发展的抉择。本文着重介绍了绿色经济的内容，主要包括绿色产业、绿色贸易、等。在发展绿色经济方面，我国已有一定认识并取得了较大成就，但和发达国家相比还存在较大差距，必须下大力迎头赶上。     

气候变化与实施清洁发展机制的展望

本文第一部分介绍了《气候变化框架公约》的达成与主要内容，以及在柏林、日内瓦、京都与布宜诺斯艾利斯先后召开的４ 次缔约方会议的结果； 第二部分介绍了清洁发展机制（ＣＤＭ） 同《京都议定书》的其他灵活机制的异同，以及ＣＤＭ 的特点、方法学与技术问题； 第三部分分析了ＣＤＭ 的前景、影响其成功实施的因素、它可能提供的潜在机遇以及实施中的需求与供给；最后就ＣＤＭ 的实施作了展望。     

青岛市建设循环型经济社会的探讨

以青岛市为例,通过对传统型经济社会发展所面临环境问题的对比分析,阐述了发展循环经济、建设循环型经济社会对我国经济社会可持续发展的重要意义。指出为了实现2008年“绿色奥运”和生态型城市的建设目标,在青岛市发展循环经济,建立循环型经济社会的可能性和必要性。提出了青岛市发展循环经济、建设循环型经济社会的实施对策。