Multicriteria analysis as a tool to investigate compatibility between conservation and development on Salina Island,Aeolian Archipelago,Italy

Several multicriteria evaluation techniques have been developed since the 1970s. The need to compare different territorial policies has justified their introduction into environmental research. These methods are based on the numerical manipulation of heterogeneous information, which varies in terms of reference scale and type of measure (continuous, ordinal, qualitative, binary, etc.). During recent years, diverse investigations have focused on general conditions on Salina, the “green island” of the Aeolian archipelago. Such studies, within an interdisciplinary project, aimed to explore the possibility of implementing conservation strategies that are compatible with human needs, landscape preservation, and sustainable economic development. Three different evaluation techniques are applied, namely multicriteria weighted concordance and discordance analysis and a qualitative procedure. They are used to compare four alternative plans for the socioeconomic development of Salina Island. These plans lie between extreme alternatives: total protection of natural resources and maximizing economic development based on tourism. The plans are compared to each other on the basis of 14 criteria that reflect the socioenvironmental perception of Salina's inhabitants. The approach used in this research seems particularly fruitful because of its flexibility: it offers decision makers the chance to manage heterogeneous data and information that is not easily quantifiable. Such “soft” information helps to evaluate environmental conditions more precisely, and to make a less damaging choice among alternative development plans.     

Environmental regulatory compliance on army lands: A case study

A “finding of no significant impact” (FONSI) resulting from an environmental assessment (EA) was reported by the US Army in June 1986 for the construction and utilization of a multipurpose range complex (MPRC) at the Pohakuloa Training Area, Hawaii. There was little public response, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service and state agencies were consulted and had few comments concerning the results of the botanical surveys used in the assessment. Construction of the $24 million project was begun in 1988. Near the end of construction in 1989 a lawsuit was filed to halt construction because an environmental impact statement (EIS) had not been done for the project, and the plaintiff thought that significant damage had occurred to several unusual ecosystems. Judgment was against the plaintiff and construction continued. An appeal was filed with the 9th Circuit Court. As MPRC construction was nearly complete, and on advice of Department of Justice lawyers, the Department of Army agreed to settle out of court. The settlement in part called for: (1) the plaintiff to drop the appeal and allow construction to be completed as scheduled, and (2) the Department of Army to prepare an EIS for the operation of the MPRC. A subsequent botanical survey for the EIS discovered one endangered plant species, four category 1 candidate plant species (taxa with sufficient data to support listing as endangered or threatened), three category 2 candidate plant species (taxa with some evidence of vulnerability but insufficient data to support listing at this time), one category 3a species (presumably extinct taxa), and possibly three undescribed species growing within the MPRC boundary. The MPRC case study is an excellent example of why the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) must be modified to require in-depth and thorough environmental surveys.     

Application of a GIS-based stream buffer generation model to environmental policy evaluation

In this article a GIS method is presented for riparian environmental buffer generation. It integrates a scientifically tested buffer width delineation model into a GIS framework. Using the generally available data sets, it determines buffer widths in terms of local physical conditions and expected effectiveness. Technical burdens of data management, computation, and result presentation are handled by the GIS. The case study in which the method was used to evaluate the stream buffer regulations in a North Carolina county demonstrates its capability as a decision support tool to facilitate environmental policy formulation and evaluation, and environmental dispute resolution.     

Agenda setting and acid precipitation in the United States

The objective of this research was to analyze the retention of acid precipitation as a viable policy issue on the Congressional agenda during the 1980s. Issue maintenance (a term borrowed from Barbara Nelson's discussion of the four stages associated with agenda decision making) was examined in relation to a set of issue characteristics originally developed by Roger Cobb and Charles Elder, i.e., concreteness, social significance, temporal relevance, complexity, and categorical precedence. Each issue attribute was found to be somewhat useful in explaining the longevity of acid rain as an agenda item although the direction of influence for two factors, complexity and temporal relevance, was contrary to expectations. It was suggested that a conceptual merger of this sort could contribute to the comparative analysis of agenda policy decisions by providing a clearer and more restricted set of decision points to be explained.     

关于铁路行车事故预测的应用研究

本文论述了事故预测对铁路行车安全的重要性,并应用灰色预测模型和概率回归估计法模型研制了预测软件,进行铁路行车事故的宏观及微观预测,为采取有针对性的防范措施提供一个可靠信息。     

几种事故预测方法的探讨

本文根据生产单位事故发生的随机性特点,论证了未来时段中事故次数及其时间分布等各项指标,是能够用多种随机数学模型和灰色系统理论来预测的。用非随机的函数模型预測事故是不合适的。给出了几种事故预測方法,并提出了几种值得研究和试用的方法。     

陕西延安地区1992—2000年干旱趋势灰色预测

本文存分析延安地区干旱特征的基础上,采用地地区40a的资料,运用灰色理论的预测方法,预测了1992～2000年间干旱发生的季节及强度,预计该时该区的旱情将持续出现,故提出必须立足抗旱,以保农业生产的稳步发展。     

灰关联分析在故障树诊断中的应用

介绍一种灰色诊断法。在故障诊断模式识别中,运用灰关联分析,依据故障树的底事件重要度,通过关联度计算及排序,对故障树分析中,各种故障模式发生的可能性大小作出了准确的判断,从而为处理事故的先后、缓急提供了依据。     

Conservation Opportunities for Securing In-Stream Flows in the Platte River Basin: A Case Study Drawing on Casper,Wyoming’s MunicipalWater Strategy

The Platte River Basin consists of tributaries largely in Wyoming, Colorado and Western Nebraska, with the main stem in Central Nebraska. Critical wildlife habitat on the main stem requires additional in-stream flows. The watershed is one hosting multiple resources, a variety of users, and managed by an array of state and federal agencies. This study proposes a basis for securing in-stream flows for the Platte River. Candidate water supply mechanisms are suggested based on the way in which Casper, Wyoming secured water for its municipal needs. Canal lining is compared to a dam project, increasing reservoir storage, and purchasing water rights, with consideration also made for water pricing to reduce municipal use. Comparisons are based on economic efficiency, potential water conservation, and property rights criteria. Canal lining, coupled with demand management, is shown to conserve water best, given the set of efficiency and cost criteria for in-stream flow enhancement. The approach offers an opportunity to organize the water supply choice context in a transboundary watershed when quantitative information is limited.     

Application of Decision Analysis to Forest Road Deactivation in Unstable Terrain

Resource managers require objective methodologies to optimize decisions related to forest road deactivation and other aspects of road management, especially in steep terrain, where road-related slope failures inflict extensive environmental damage. Decision analysis represents a systematic framework that clearly identifies real options and critical decision points. This framework links current decisions with expected future outcomes and provides advantages such as a common currency to systematically explore the liability consequences of limited budget expenditures to road deactivation and other road-related activities. Furthermore, the decision framework prevents the analysis from becoming hopelessly entangled by the vast number of possibilities generated by the alternative occurrences, magnitudes, and consequences of landslide/debris flow events and provides the information required for the first step of an adaptive management process. Here, a structured analysis of potential environmental risks for a road deactivation project in coastal British Columbia, Canada is presented. The application of decision analysis generates a ranking of the expected benefits of proposed deactivation activities on various road sections. The ranking distinguishes between road sections that offer high expected benefit from those that offer moderate to low expected benefit. Seventeen of 171, 100–m road segments accounted for 18% of the cumulative cost and 98% of the cumulative expected net benefits from road deactivation. Furthermore, the cost of deactivating a section of road is related to the expected benefit from such deactivation, thus providing the basis for more effective resource allocation and budgeting decisions.