灰色系统理论在岩崩,滑坡监测中的应用

本文根据灰色系统理论，利用１９９０～１９９３年的ＧＰＳ观测结果，建立了岩崩、滑坡的预测模型ＧＭ（１．１）。同时进行了灰色关联度分析，从而求得新滩滑坡区的地壳形变规律。由于该区地处长江三峡工程的重要地段，因此进行长期监测是非常必要的     

KNOWLEDGE UTILIZATION IN WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE NETHERLANDS RELATED TO DESICCATION1

ABSTRACT: The use of scientific knowledge in environmental policy making is an important topic. However, the relation between knowledge producers and policy makers is not a straightforward producer-user relationship. The development of a national desiccation policy in the Netherlands and the implementation of desiccation plans in local situations are used as a case study to investigate the knowledge policy relationship. Three theoretical explanations were used to analyze this case: a difference between the cultures of producers and users; a different rationality of the policy making and research processes; and processes of social construction of problem definitions which imply that different knowledge stocks are used depending on the framing of the policy problem. Emergence of the policy issue at the national level is demonstrated to develop in close interaction between knowledge producers and policy makers, while the interactions at the local level were more based on integration of expert knowledge through personal expertise and closely tied to the development of management plans. This case study thus reveals a difference between general knowledge supporting measures at the national policy level and the way in which specific knowledge is applied in local cases. Therefore more attention should be paid to the translation of policy problems from rather high levels of political authority to the conceptualization at lower management levels. A final conclusion is that knowledge use in Dutch desiccation policy can be understood by pointing to multiple theoretical perspectives. The rational actor model and a construc-tivist perspective turned out to be especially useful in explaining the different ways knowledge was used at the national and the local level.     

用灰色关联度模型评价湖泊富营养化

应用灰色关联度模型对大理州主要的８ 个湖泊水库进行富营养化评价。结果表明,８ 个湖泊水库都处于中营养级、评价结果与实际情况较为吻合。文章还提出了富营养化防治对策,为湖泊保护提供了科学依据。     

LIMITS ON THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAME OF REFERENCE IN WATER RESOURCE DECISION-MAKING1

Study of water resource decision-making in Massachusetts demonstrates the existence of many institutional constraints such as the established fee system for consulting engineers, the funding of certain agencies, the institutionalization of equity concerns, overrepresentation of interests, and incompatibility of agency goals. These institutional constraints are attributable in part to certain broadly-based value-orientations such as the American pragmatic tradition. However, various lines of evidence indicate that these constraints are less important than other factors in the etiology of decisional outcomes. The outcomes of the decision processes were found to be at variance with the decisions studied, a fact leading to the conclusion that choice of decisions for study should be given more attention. The authors conclude that institutional constraints are important if one is interested in studying how decisions are made, but that what actually happens in the long run cannot be easily ascertained by studying either institutions or the decision-making process. They suggest the need for more research utilizing the incremental theories of Carl Lindblom and the side-effect theories of Albert O. Hirschman.     

Evaluation of Immunocontraception as a Publicly Acceptable Form of Vertebrate Pest Species Control: The Introduced Grey Squirrel in Britain as an Example

We sent out a targeted questionnaire to organizations and private individuals across the UK that have expressed an interest in squirrel management and conservation. Respondents were asked to evaluate shooting, trapping, poisoning and immunocontraception (IMC), according to their perceived efficacy, cost efficiency, and whether they were considered to be humane. The majority of both professionals and enthusiasts indicated support for grey squirrel control to help conserve red squirrels and to reduce economic damage to timber crops. Respondents\' comparative evaluations of current forms of control showed that trapping is the most acceptable method. When IMC is compared with the other methods, it was considered to be more humane and acceptable. In contrast, poisoning was seen as humane or acceptable by the fewest respondents. Furthermore, poisoning elicited the greatest difference in opinion between the professional and enthusiast groups. This difference (34\%) may be interpreted partly as concern over the type of death that results from poisoning and partly as due to the possibility of poisoning nontarget species. Our findings indicate a need for more public information regarding secondary poisoning hazards to other species and their predators. Interest and concern about squirrel control correlated with the overlap between contemporary areas of distribution of the two species. It is these areas where consultation and education programs about control methods should be targeted. This research indicates that there would be support for grey squirrel control using IMC from both lay and professional interest groups. It demonstrates the existence of a sound basis for constructive dialog that can lead to the design and implementation of acceptable and efficient control strategies.     

城市防震减灾的决策分析

研究城市抗震减灾的目的是为了给城市的抗震防灾工作提供相应的行为依据。这些工作依赖于不同的决策分析方法和相应的城市基础数据。本文综合了几种常见的决策方案，建立了相应的决策分析方法；分析探讨了防震减灾决策综合支持系统的特点和内容。     

井下作业温度对事故影响关系的灰色关联分析

笔者基于灰色系统理论 ,结合煤矿井下运输生产实际 ,建立了以死亡人数为参考数列、以不同作业温度为比较数列的灰色关联分析体系。通过对构造的不同数据列的无量纲化处理、求取差序列 ,计算灰色关联系数等 ,得到了不同作业温度对伤亡事故影响的灰色关联度 ,并据此分析结果而找出了井下作业温度对死亡事故的影响关系 ,为预防事故发生、减少伤亡损失及改善作业环境提供了有用的依据     

基于灰色预测理论的瓦斯传感器自校正技术

笔者提出了将灰色预测理论与单片机技术相结合 ,对瓦斯传感器的非线性进行自校正的新思路 ;采用了灰色预测理论中GM(1,1)模型和单片机技术相结合 ,将预测误差值对传感器的实测值进行分段补偿的方法 ,实现对瓦斯传感器的非线性自校正 ;该方法克服了灰色预测理论对波动较大的随机序列的预测精度低的缺陷。其研究结果表明 ,应用该方法得到的预测值与真值的拟合程度好 ,预测值与真值之间最大的差值为 0 .15 0 1% ,而该处校正前的差值为 0 .30 0 0 % ,提高了传感器的测量精度。     

矿井瓦斯涌出量预测的灰色建模法

简要介绍了瓦斯涌出量的常用预测方法 ,指出了各种预测方法的弊端 ,从矿山实际出发 ,把非等间距数列变为等间距数列 ,根据灰色理论提出的预测方法 ,利用不同采深瓦斯涌出量的原始数据建立矿井瓦斯涌出量的动态GM(1,1)模型 ,进行瓦斯涌出量预测 ,选择了合理的误差检验模型 ,并通过实例说明了GM(1,1)模型在预测瓦斯涌出量中的应用 ,结果表明预测程度较高。对矿井延深做好瓦斯涌出量预测并进行矿井安全生产具有很好的指导意义。     

安全投资决策优化模型

安全投资决策是安全生产决策的重要内容。企业生产系统的安全投资 ,是生产成本的组成部分 ,合理地安排投资项目 ,可以最大限度地提高企业的安全效果和经济效益。当安全投资额度不能完全满足投资需求时 ,不同的投资组合导致系统安全效果差异较大。分析了生产系统的安全效果与费用的关系 ,根据系统的安全需要确定投资项目费用 ,将安全投资项目通过系统安全要素与安全效果直接挂钩 ,建立了安全投资决策的目标规划模型 ,确定了合理的安全投资组合 ,使有限的安全投资取得最佳的安全效果。通过一个案例验证了模型的有效性 ,可作为企业确定安全投资项目和政府有关部门进行安全管理的决策依据。