Prioritizing species conservation programs based on IUCN Green Status and estimates of cost-sharing potential

Over 1 million species around the world are at risk of extinction, and conservation organizations have to decide where to invest their limited resources. Cost-effectiveness can be increased by leveraging funding opportunities and increasing collaborative partnerships to achieve shared conservation goals. We devised a structured decision-making framework to prioritize species’ conservation programs based on a cost–benefit analysis that takes collaborative opportunities into account in an examination of national and global conservation return on investment. Conservation benefit is determined by modifying the novel International Union for the Conservation of Nature Green Status for Species to provide an efficient, high-level measure that is comparable among species, even with limited information and time constraints. We applied this prioritization approach to the Wilder Institute/Calgary Zoo, Canada, a nonprofit organization seeking to increase the number of species it assists with conservation translocations. We sought to identify and prioritize additional species’ programs for which conservation translocation expertise and actions could make the most impact. Estimating the likelihood of cost-sharing potential enabled total program cost to be distinguished from costs specific to the organization. Comparing a benefit-to-cost ratio on different geographic scales allowed decision makers to weigh alternative options for investing in new species’ programs in a transparent and effective manner. Our innovative analysis aligns with general conservation planning frameworks and can be adapted for any organization.     

Factors associated with preemptive conservation under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In recent decades, there has been an increasing emphasis on proactive efforts to conserve species being considered for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) before they are listed (i.e., preemptive conservation). These efforts, which depend on voluntary actions by public and private land managers across the species’ range, aim to conserve species while avoiding regulatory costs associated with ESA listing. We collected data for a set of social, economic, environmental, and institutional factors that we hypothesized would influence voluntary decisions to promote or inhibit preemptive conservation of species under consideration for ESA listing. We used logistic regression to estimate the association of these factors with preemptive conservation outcomes based on data for a set of species that entered the ESA listing process and were either officially listed (n = 314) or preemptively conserved (n = 73) from 1996 to 2018. Factors significantly associated with precluded listing due to preemptive conservation included high baseline conservation status, low proportion of private land across the species’ range, small total range size, exposure to specific types of threats, and species’ range extending over several states. These results highlight strategies that can help improve conservation outcomes, such as allocating resources for imperiled species earlier in the listing process, addressing specific threats, and expanding incentives and coordination mechanisms for conservation on private lands.     

长江口滨岸带生态环境质量评价指标体系与评价模型

基于生态系统理论,构建了由社会、经济、自然环境、自然灾害4个子系统和7个二级指标及29个三级指标组成的长江口滨岸带生态环境质量评价指标体系;以信息熵理论为基础建立了客观确定指标权重的综合信息熵模型法,并以层次分析法和综合信息熵模型法相结合确定评价指标权重值;采用灰色关联综合评价模型对上海滨岸带生态环境质量进行评价。对上海滨岸带宝山、浦东、南汇、奉贤、金山和崇明岸段1999~2003年5年间生态环境质量的时空变化特征和分级规律的研究表明：宝山滨岸带生态环境质量1999~2000年为较差,2001~2003年为中等;浦东、奉贤、南汇和金山生态环境质量一直处于中等水平;崇明生态环境质量1999、2000年为良,而2001~2003年为中。     

应急物流研究现状及发展动态分析

从应急物流的定义与特征、系统体系构建、保障机制、风险评估以及定量模型等方面对国内外近10年来的应急物流相关成果进行系统分析,指出当前应急物流存在的问题与不足,探讨应急物流发展趋势。分析表明,国内外对应急物流定量模型的研究主要是选址和调度问题分开进行的,对选址调度问题的集成研究还较少,也没有将应急物流的风险识别与选址调度问题结合起来进行研究。另外,应急物流的开展需要多个部门协同决策,开发应急物流协同决策系统也将是未来的研究方向。     

灰色系统模型在大气环境质量预测中的应用

把大气环境作为一个灰色系统,建立GM(1,1)预测模型,对大气中的降尘及总悬浮物做出科学的预测,并进行灰色模型的精度检验。      

灰色神经网络模型在油气管道腐蚀速度预测中的应用

简要说明了GM(1,1)模型和BP神经网络模型预测过程,提出了灰色神经网络组合模型,用此方法对某原油长输管道腐蚀速度进行了预测,并用MatLab语言编程的方法对数据做了处理,结果表明用该方法预测得到的数据与实测值非常接近。     

等维新息GM(1,1)模型在TNT生化降解研究中的应用

文中指出了常规GM(1,1)模型的缺点之所在,并对其建模方法作了改进,同时将改进得到的等维新息GM(1,1)模型与常规GM(1,1)模型对白腐菌生化降解TNT废水的过程进行了比较分析,得出改进的等维新息GM(1,1)模型具有更高的预测精度,从而拓宽了GM(1,1)模型在环境科学领域中的应用范围,为环境系统的拟合、预测分析和决策开辟了新的途径。      

基于云模型的民用机场消防指挥员决策能力测评研究

为研究民用机场消防指挥员决策能力,考虑测评指标分为定性与定量2类,且指标存在模糊性的特点,建立基于云模型的民用机场消防指挥员决策能力测评方法。根据相关规章规定、专家意见和问卷调查结果,确定测评指标体系,并依据云模型原理建立定性到定量的测评转换模型,将指标的定性测评转化为直观的定量评价;最后,根据云模型的期望、熵、超熵,评价民用机场消防指挥员决策能力水平。研究结果表明:利用基于云模型原理构建的定性与定量测评转换模型进行决策能力测评,所得测评结果能够体现评价指标模糊性和随机性的特点,评估结果更加直观且贴近实际情况。     

The challenges of participatory and systemic environmental management: from aspiration to implementation

Participatory and systemic approaches in environmental management are advocated as they are thought to lead to more equitable, resilient and integrated solutions. However, there is mounting evidence that, in practice, these approaches are exceedingly challenging and do not always lead to improved environmental management, or greater community engagement. To better understand the challenges facing organisations wishing to use these approaches, we monitored the dynamics of a decision-making process on an estate. We observed an oscillating pattern of widening and narrowing participation and integration. Three key factors created tensions with the estate's desires to increase community participation and follow a more systemic approach: stewardship values, organisational capacity and unresolved core issues. A combination of these tensions and other factors led to the early cessation of a series of planned participatory workshops. We conclude that academia needs to take these challenges seriously by placing greater emphasis on multi-dimensional, transdisciplinary analysis of such transformation processes.     

An inexact optimization approach for river water-quality management

A previously developed fuzzy waste load allocation model (FWLAM) for a river system is extended to address uncertainty involved in fixing the membership functions for the fuzzy goals of the pollution control agency (PCA) and the dischargers using the concept of grey systems. The model provides flexibility for the PCA and the dischargers to specify their goals independently, as the parameters for membership functions are considered as interval grey numbers instead of deterministic real numbers. An inexact or a grey fuzzy optimization model is developed in a multiobjective framework, to maximize the width of the interval valued fractional removal levels for providing latitude in decision-making and to minimize the width of the goal fulfillment level for reducing the system uncertainty. The concept of an acceptability index for order relation between two partially or fully overlapping intervals is used to get a deterministic equivalent of the grey fuzzy optimization model developed. The improvement of the optimal solutions over a previously developed grey fuzzy waste load allocation model (GFWLAM) is shown through an application to a hypothetical river system. The fuzzy multiobjective optimization and fuzzy goal programming techniques are used to solve the deterministic equivalent of the GFWLAM.