GM(1,N)模型在城市道路交通噪声预测中的精度分析

根据武汉市1998～2002年城市道路交通噪声检测数据以及相关的数据,分析相关因素的选取对GM(1,N)灰色模型的预测精度的影响.结果表明选取相关因素会降低GM(1,N)灰色模型的精度,而GM(1,1)模型则有较好的预测精度;利用GM(1,1)模型对武汉市2008年前的道路交通噪声进行了预测.     

旅游目的地灾害事件的影响机理研究

认清旅游灾害事件的影响机理是进行旅游灾害管理的基础。在灾害背景下,旅游目的地受灾害事件影响表现为旅游客流的减少,进而导致旅游经济链条的断裂。游客减少的根本原因是由于目的地灾害事件信息影响了潜在旅游者对目的地的形象感知,从而决定了潜在旅游者到目的地旅行的行为意向强度,进而影响到目的地的旅游流强度。     

Violation analysis for solid waste management systems: an interval fuzzy programming approach

This paper introduces a violation analysis approach for the planning of regional solid waste management systems under uncertainty, based on an interval-parameter fuzzy integer programming (IPFIP) model. In this approach, several given levels of tolerable violation for system constraints are permitted. This is realized through a relaxation of the critical constraints using violation variables, such that the model's decision space can be expanded. Thus, solutions from the violation analysis will not necessarily satisfy all of the model's original constraints. Application of the developed methodology to the planning of a waste management system indicates that reasonable solutions can be generated through this approach. Considerable information regarding decisions of facility expansion and waste flow allocation within the waste management system were generated. The modeling results help to generate a number of decision alternatives under various system conditions, allowing for more in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives as well as those between system optimality and reliability.     

试论中国环境保护的历程和发展趋势

中国的环境保护经历了70年代初“三废处理”、70年代末“依法保护环境”、80年代“城市环境综合整治”和90年代“可持续发展战略”的发展历程。中国的环境保护要坚持以可持续发展战略为指导、污染防治与生态保护并重、环保与发展综合决策的发展道路。     

重庆市区城市建设用地预测研究

重庆市作为西部唯一的中央直辖市和长江上游地区最大的经济、文化、商贸中心,在西部大开发中扮演十分重要的角色。重庆市是一个典型的山地丘陵城市,地形起伏大,工程地质条件复杂,施工难度大而且建设费用高,极大地限制了重庆市城市建设的发展。再加上受以前城市建设政策的影响,重庆市的城市建设发展缓慢。城市建设用地长期不足。为此必须加快重庆市城市建设步伐,重点放在搞好城市建设规划,加强城市基础设施建设上。首先要做好城市建设用地预测,以便为规划提供科学依据。从重庆市城市建设用地的实际情况出发,采用目前应用广泛的灰色系统分析法GM(1．1)预测了重庆市区城市非农业人口规模,进而测算出城市人口规模,并根据几种可能的人均用地水平预测了未来重庆市区城市建设用地规模。     

滑坡加固方案优化选择的灰色系统方法

综合利用了灰色系统理论的局势决策及线性规划方法, 为滑坡的加固方案提出了一种优化选择方法, 并以实例说明了该方法的实用性和可靠性。     

PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN WATER PLANNING: A CRITIQUE OF THEORY,DOCTRINE, AND PRACTICE1

ABSTRACT. Water development planning has virtually since its beginnings over one hundred fifty years ago utilized a variety of devices for involving segments of the public. But a new insistence for increased public participation, particularly at the Federal level, has stimulated re-examination of objectives and methods for relating water planning to citizen interests and preferences. Involved is partly a recommitment to democratic symbols, partly a recognition that segments of society have been overlooked, and partly a reaction to the pressures of confrontation and demonstration. The rhetoric and polemics of participation have often implied a kind of “town-meeting” process of decision, difficult at best in a nation of 200 million. In water planning more emphasis has been placed on listening to citizens, which has meant providing opportunities for influentials to express their views and preferences. A more adequate approach would seem to require identification of all who are significantly affected by plans and proposals (even though they may not perceive then-interest). But gaining greater participation does not make the planning job easier. It may increase tension and conflict; it may require difficult choices; and it can alter existing power relationships and generate changes with considerable consequences for the agency and its programs.