CREATIVITY AND RATIONALITY IN PLAN FORMULATION1

ABSTRACT: It is the thesis of this paper that plan formulation is both art and science, and that to improve formulation, to develop better alternatives, the planner needs to both improve his creative capability and to think more systematically. Research into creativity by psychologist and social scientist has identified four aspects of creativity: the creative process, the creative product, the creative person, the creative situation. A review of research results on each aspect suggests several ways in which planners can improve the creative dimension of plan formulation. To improve the rational aspects of plan formulation a way of thinking is presented in the form of a conceptual model to assist the planner in systematically developing a broader range of plans. The major components are inventory, forecast and synthesis. The model utilizes the concept of a production function to provide information about the resource, management practices and its use.     

交通事故预测分析

运用模糊图、灰色系统、非线性回归、随机过程和安全系统工程的理论与方法，进行交通事故预测分析。给出了交通事故预测分析的双向模糊图模型、灰色马尔可夫预测模型及非线性回归模型。模型运行结果可为交通事故的预防和交通安全管理提供科学依据     

A pattern of contractor selection for oil and gas industries in a safety approach using ANP-DEMATEL in a Grey environment

Contractor selection is one of the major concerns of industry managers such as those in the oil industry. The objective of this study was to determine a contractor selection pattern for oil and gas industries in a safety approach. Assessment of contractors based on specific criteria and ultimately selecting an eligible contractor preserves the organizational resources. Due to the safety risks involved in the oil industry, one of the major criteria of contractor selection considered by managers today is safety. The results indicated that the most important safety criterion of contractor selection was safety records and safety investments. This represented the industry’s risks and the impact of safety training and investment on the performance of other sectors and the overall organization. The output of this model could be useful in the safety risk assessment process in the oil industry and other industries.     

Explosion prevention and weighting analysis on the inerting effect of methane via grey entropy model

Explosion prevention is vital for process safety and daily life. In practice, inerting is viewed as an ideal method to reach basic explosion prevention as well as to diminish flammability risk in normal operation, storage, and transportation of materials. This study deals with the inerting effect on the explosion range for methane via grey entropy model, comparatively detected under the different inert gases of nitrogen (N₂), argon (Ar), and carbon dioxide (CO₂), which have various loading inerting concentrations: 10 (90 vol% air), 20 (80 vol% air) and 25 vol% (75 vol% air). The inert influences were determined via the experimental 20-L-apparatus investigations under 1 atm, 30 ^OC, combined with the grey entropy model, which is one of the most prevailingly used grey system theories for weighting analysis and decision-making of the fire and explosion assessment for practical operations. The results indicated that CO₂ had better inerting capacity than the others, as derived from our grey entropy theoretical soft computing calculations. Through the combination of the grey entropy weighting analysis model and the flammability investigations in this study, the concluded decision-making was feasible and useful for the practical applications of inert gases for preventing fire and explosion hazards in relevant processes.     

Decision-making on process risk of Arctic route for LNG carrier via dynamic Bayesian network modeling

An increasing number of ships have chosen the suitable route to transport in Arctic waters during summer. Seeking a suitable model for risk decision-making in route planning is a necessary research topic at present. Due to its complex natural environment, there is significant uncertainty regarding ship navigation safety in Arctic waters. The process risk-based decision-making method to support route planning is established based on the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) risk assessment model for LNG carrier collision with ice or obstacles in Arctic waters. The decision-making process for ship navigation is dynamically associated with time. Therefore, a Markov Chain (MC) is built for each dynamic node in Bayesian belief network (BBN) to realize DBN associated risk assessment, which is called process risk and is applied to decision-making. Three possible routes for ships sailing from the Vikitsky Strait to the Long Strait in Arctic waters were selected in conjunction with the objective daily change data of wind speed, temperature, wave height, and ice condition. Simulations for risk decision-making in the ship navigation process are performed. Application examples show that the ship selected either ROUTE2 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Sannikov Strait – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) or ROUTE3 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Proliv Dmitriya Lapteva – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) in August as the best navigable route.     

试述系统安全分析评价方法及其实现

从系统安全控制出发,分别从系统安全分析、系统安全评价和安全决策三方面对常用安全评价方法进行了阐述,并概括分析了各方法的实现过程及特点。     

噪声功能区划中一类,二类混合区域的划定方法研究

根据灰色系统理论,通过灰色聚类的方法判定噪声功能区中的一类、二类混合区。判定结果与实际情况具有较高吻合度。     

运用灰色系统的GM（1，1）模型对城市噪声的综合预测

应用GM（1，1）模型，对大同市各功能区环境噪声进行综合预测，得出了大同市未来几年城市噪声的变化趋势。     

灰色关联矩阵优势分析在水环境质量综合评价中的应用

把一条河流视为一灰色系统，应用灰色关联矩阵优势分析法，并以国际[1]为参照系，进行综合评价，通过尝试说明该数学模型有较强的分辨能力，是一种接近实际的方法。     

灰色拓扑分析方法在海上溢油趋势预测上的应用

依据１９７３～１９９６ 年间中国海域船舶溢油的历史数据，利用灰色系统理论的灰色拓扑分析方法，以１０ 个不同的溢油总量作为分析采用的阈值，建立相应的ＧＭ（１，１）分析模型，对未来的溢油趋势进行预测分析。分析的结果显示未来年份的溢油量较１９９６ 年以前的溢油量要高，表明未来的溢油趋势仍不可乐观。必须加强以大溢油量（单次溢油量＞５０ ０００ ｋｇ） 溢油事件的防止工作。