CREATIVITY AND RATIONALITY IN PLAN FORMULATION1

ABSTRACT: It is the thesis of this paper that plan formulation is both art and science, and that to improve formulation, to develop better alternatives, the planner needs to both improve his creative capability and to think more systematically. Research into creativity by psychologist and social scientist has identified four aspects of creativity: the creative process, the creative product, the creative person, the creative situation. A review of research results on each aspect suggests several ways in which planners can improve the creative dimension of plan formulation. To improve the rational aspects of plan formulation a way of thinking is presented in the form of a conceptual model to assist the planner in systematically developing a broader range of plans. The major components are inventory, forecast and synthesis. The model utilizes the concept of a production function to provide information about the resource, management practices and its use.     

噪声功能区划中一类,二类混合区域的划定方法研究

根据灰色系统理论,通过灰色聚类的方法判定噪声功能区中的一类、二类混合区。判定结果与实际情况具有较高吻合度。     

增强环保科技创新能力支撑环境管理决策:需求·挑战·对策

新时代我国环境保护形势面临着深刻变化,满足人民群众日益增长的对优质生态产品需求成为环保工作的主要矛盾.为落实党的十九大关于生态文明建设和环境保护的要求,牢固把握"环保科技的人民性",在对未来环境形势和环保科技创新需求分析判断的基础上,紧密围绕绿色发展和环境质量改善的目标,提出了加强环保科技创新发展的4个重点任务:面向国民经济绿色发展主战场,全面提升环保科技供给能力和水平;加强环境科学基础研究,引领环境质量改善;研发关键技术,突破环境治理技术瓶颈;加大生态系统保护力度,推进人与自然和谐共生.同时,提出了完善环保科技创新体制机制的5点建议:实施平台化、国际化、产业化、规范化、信息化管理,助推现代环境科研院所制度建设;加快环保科技创新体系建设,完善和补强科技创新链条;完善管理决策支撑机制,解决科研与管理脱节的问题;统筹全国环境科研力量,创新重大科研项目组织模式;加强人才队伍建设,充分调动人才创新活力,为环保科技创新提供政策和制度保障.      

公路应急救援系统分析及模型仿真

针对公路应急救援进行了较为全面而深入的研究,分析系统中的各个组成环节,提出依据救援呼叫(CFS)的概率建立ESSR应急救援单元的新思路,建立救援单元模型,进行仿真分析,得出救援设施数量安排策略。制定了ESSR系统整体最优化模型,并利用matlab软件进行仿真分析,获得紧急救援最佳方案。为公路和市政道路管理者全面收集和分析信息资料,管理应急救援系统提供依据。通过模型仿真可评估和优化管理设施,实现信息和决策支持,提高了配备资源,快速高效处理交通突发事件能力。     

“Consent and Consensus in Policies Related to Food – Five Core Values”

When formulating a policy related to food in a heterogeneous context within a nation or between nations, oppositional positions are more or less explicit, but always have to be overcome. It is interesting to note, though, that such elements as culture and religion have seldom been the focus in discussions about methods of decision-making in food policy. To handle discrepancies between oppositional positions, one solution is to narrow differences between partners, another to accept one partner or position as dominant. In a solid and lasting policy, any of these options has to be agreed upon by all the partners involved. In this article, I argue that context sensitivity and a shared picture of the situation are necessary bases for a solid food policy. Two methods for policy discussion are elaborated on and religious slaughter is given as an example of a heterogeneous setting with strongly diverging ideals. Several aspects have to be respected from the outset, such as culture, religion, and value systems. This condition is partly met in a model of informed consent and in a consensus model. The informed consent model is regarded as insufficient, because it lacks both methods of dealing with hierarchies and the goal of finding a shared and nuanced picture of the situation. A consensus model meets these tasks but might on the other hand, among other things, be too difficult to follow and to administer. For both models, some difficulties with justification of decisions arise. Five essential elements emanating from a combination of these models are suggested as a basis for a decision process regarding food policies: respect for each discussion partner, context sensitivity, respect for arguments including emotions, a shared picture of the situation, and finally relating theory and practice.     

PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN WATER PLANNING: A CRITIQUE OF THEORY,DOCTRINE, AND PRACTICE1

ABSTRACT. Water development planning has virtually since its beginnings over one hundred fifty years ago utilized a variety of devices for involving segments of the public. But a new insistence for increased public participation, particularly at the Federal level, has stimulated re-examination of objectives and methods for relating water planning to citizen interests and preferences. Involved is partly a recommitment to democratic symbols, partly a recognition that segments of society have been overlooked, and partly a reaction to the pressures of confrontation and demonstration. The rhetoric and polemics of participation have often implied a kind of “town-meeting” process of decision, difficult at best in a nation of 200 million. In water planning more emphasis has been placed on listening to citizens, which has meant providing opportunities for influentials to express their views and preferences. A more adequate approach would seem to require identification of all who are significantly affected by plans and proposals (even though they may not perceive then-interest). But gaining greater participation does not make the planning job easier. It may increase tension and conflict; it may require difficult choices; and it can alter existing power relationships and generate changes with considerable consequences for the agency and its programs.     

滑坡加固方案优化选择的灰色系统方法

综合利用了灰色系统理论的局势决策及线性规划方法, 为滑坡的加固方案提出了一种优化选择方法, 并以实例说明了该方法的实用性和可靠性。     

Optimal design for water conservation and energy savings using green roofs in a green building under mixed uncertainties

Most water conservation and energy saving strategies for residential homes and commercial buildings have higher initial capital investment than traditional ones. Yet, the added benefits of these “green” building strategies should outweigh the increase of initial capital cost at the end of the house lifetime. Using green roof systems to cool houses gives rise to uncertainties from local precipitation patterns and the unstable market related costs and benefits. The optimal area of green roof to balance cost, benefit, and risk remains unknown. To achieve such a complex systems analysis, a grey stochastic programming model was prepared to address the optimal design strategies under mixed uncertainties. Such a cost-benefit-risk trade-off model was formulated for this study through an optimization framework to retrieve the optimal design strategies with respect to a typical Florida residential home (shingle and metal roofs). It is particularly designed to synergistically integrate a green roof with beneficial reuse of gray water and stormwater while achieving some degree of energy savings. The study identifies the optimal green roof area that keeps within the cost of a conventional home over a specific life time, such as 50 years. Research findings show that as the reliability level associated with the chance constraint was decreased, the upper bound of the green roof area did not vary much for either shingle or metal roofs. The lower bound was found to decrease in the same situation, however, due to the higher minimum cost of the cistern in relation to the greater volume of expected rainfall, forcing the required green roof area to decrease.     

基于熵权TOPSIS法的火电厂选址综合决策

目前火电厂选址的综合评价方法主要依赖专家评判确定指标权重,主观性强、评分标准难以准确把握及合理运用.本文针对以上不足,将基于熵权的TOPSIS法应用于火电厂选址的综合决策,通过运用熵权法客观确定了选址评价体系各指标的权重,并构造了理想解与负理想解,以方案指标向量靠近理想解、远离负理想解来判断确定方案的优劣,同时结合实例...