土地整理立项决策评估的指标体系与方法探讨

土地整理立项决策评估是进行科学投资决策、正确选择整理项目的基础。根据我国土地整理产业发展现状,在深入分析与土地整理立项决策评估相关的社会、经济、技术、生态和组织管理等多种因子的基础上,初步构建了我国土地整理立项决策评估指标体系。运用可拓学中的物元理论和优度评价法,设立了土地整理立项决策评估的综合评判物元模型,给出了基于关联函数的可拓评估方法,并以国土资源部土地整理中心备选项目库的项目进行实例验证。模型输出的结果与项目评审专家组对各项目可行性的实际评估结论完全吻合。研究结果为土地整理立项决策提供了科学依据。     

灰色预测法在设备状态趋势预报中的应用

分析了设备运行状态的特征 ,运用灰色系统理论对设备状态特征量——振动烈度 ,建立了灰色预测模型。计算结果表明 ,预测模型的计算值与实际测定值非常接近 ,而且可进一步预报设备运行状态趋势。灰色预测法的引进 ,丰富了设备状态监测与故障诊断技术学科的基础理论 ,推动了该学科向更高水平发展 ,预示了该学具有更广阔的应用前景。     

Multiple attribute evaluation of landscape management

Economic approaches to the valuation of ecological services have several limitations. Some of these limitations can be overcome using the multiple attribute decision-making model developed in this paper. The model postulates that a private or public decision-maker selects a site/landscape management plan based on the biophysical and economic attributes of alternative management plans, the decision-maker’s preferences for attributes, and constraints on the selection of a management plan.Two cases are examined. Case A is a watershed consisting of publicly owned land that is managed at the site, management unit and landscape scales. Management is based on the philosophy of ecosystem management. Case B is a watershed composed of several privately owned units that are managed at the site scale by decision-makers whose primary motivation is economic profit. The preferred management plan in both cases is determined using a two-stage procedure. The first stage uses a stochastic programming model to identify the most efficient management plans for a site/landscape. The second stage determines which efficient management plan for a site/landscape is preferred by maximizing an expected utility function that is additive in the attributes and assumes that the decision-maker is risk neutral.Whether a land-management plan results in strongly or weakly sustainable resource conditions is evaluated. Strong sustainability requires the probability of exceeding the minimum acceptable value of an attribute to be greater than or equal to a pre-determined reliability level for each attribute. Weak sustainability requires the same condition except that it applies to a composite index of the attributes rather than each attribute. Bayes theorem is used to evaluate uncertainty about whether the state of a landscape is sustainable.     

劳动力转移、性别差异与农地流转及合约选择

通过构建“劳动力转移-性别差异-农地流转及合约选择”分析框架,分析劳动力转移性别差异背后的行为经济学含义,进而探讨不同性别的劳动力转移对农户农地流转供给决策与合约选择的差异化影响机制。理论研究表明,女性在家庭中起粘结家庭成员的作用,女性劳动力非农就业更能体现家庭的“离农”,因而女性劳动力的非农就业行为对农户农地流转供给决策具有更明显的促进作用;男性是农户家庭在村庄中排他能力的标志,具有不可忽视的农地流转风险规避功能,因而男性劳动力的外出就业距离对农户农地流转的合约选择起决定性作用。利用全国9省(区)4772个农户样本数据进行实证分析,计量结果表明:①女性劳动力非农就业比例每增加10%,农户转出农地面积占承包地面积比例增加1.06%;②男性劳动力县外就业比例每增加10%,农户转出农地时签订关系型合约的可能性增加1.11%;③男性劳动力县外就业比例每增加10%,意愿合约形式为无合同的可能性增加0.63%,意愿合约形式为口头合同的可能性增加0.29%,意愿合约形式为书面合同的可能性减少0.91%。这意味着,为了劳动力流转市场与农地流转市场更流畅地互动,应为农村女性劳动力营造一个更加合适、有利和公平的非农就业环境,这可成为未来农村劳动力就业扶持政策的重要方向。另一方面,促进正式契约与关系型合约的有机衔接,有利于农地流转合约的正式化与规范化,从而为农地流转市场的健康发育提供有力保障。     

Integrating flood hazard into site selection of detention basins using spatial multi-criteria decision-making

This study presents an innovative approach for the integration of flood hazard into the site selection of detention basins. The site selection process is conducted by taking into account multiple criteria and disciplines. Hydraulic modeling results derived from stormwater management model are employed by Technique for the Order of Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to determine flood hazard score. The score generated by TOPSIS is used in a spatial multi-criteria decision-making site selection framework. Applying the framework, a suitability map is generated in which primary locations for detention basin placement are determined. The method is demonstrated through the case study of Darakeh River Catchment, which is located in northern Tehran, Iran. The presented framework can be easily utilized for site selection of other stormwater management techniques, such as low impact development and best management practices, due to its versatility.     

Evaluation of the Design Features of Interactive Sea-Level Rise Viewers for Risk Communication

Interactive sea-level rise viewers (ISLRVs) are digital tools used to communicate about impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and support decision-making. This study characterizes how ISLRVs communicate about SLR-related risks and provide decision-making support. It identifies key themes about fostering accurate mental models of SLR processes, informing about inundation likelihood, communicating about related social and ecological risks, and providing features users can apply to specific tasks. We present a framework for understanding this type of communication tool that designers can use to develop robust ISLRVs that can support audiences’ understanding and decision-making needs, and contribute to enhancement of coastal resiliency.     

运用模糊层次分析法优选制浆造纸废水深度处理方案

制浆造纸废水最适深度处理方案的选择是一个多准则决策问题,本文通过建立评价指标体系,从经济费用、技术性能、管理效果和社会效益4个方面,对混凝沉淀（气浮）＋过滤、Fenton氧化和生态法3种深度处理方案进行分析;采用层次分析法确定指标体系权重,其中技术性能（0.5333）权重最高;结合模糊数学法开展综合评判,评估各方案的优缺点,最后通过方案总排序确定工程优选方案。同时,针对2个具有代表意义的制浆造纸企业废水深度处理工程案例,在方案隶属度的确定时增加了决策者的期望值和企业的实际情况,分别选取了最适的制浆造纸废水深度处理方案：混凝沉淀（气浮）＋过滤法（A企业）和生态法（B企业）,这样可以更客观地指导决策者选取最合适的制浆造纸废水深度处理方案。     

灰色预测模型在渭河水环境信息系统中的应用

在分析了灰色预测模型的建模原理和流域水质预测的变化性的基础上,建立了灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,结合地理信息系统GIS,将其应用于渭河流域水环境信息系统中,为流域水质管理工作提供了很大的帮助。     

水质综合评价的基于熵权的灰色关联模型

水质评价需综合考虑各指标的属性,利用单指标评价常常具有独立性和不相容性,在将其视为灰色的基础上,由计算各样本的灰色关联度来确实其所属级别,引入信息熵理论,运用熵值法来确实评价指标的权重,建立了基于熵权和灰色关联度的水质综合评价模型,其计算简单,同时解决了权重计算困难的问题。通过在邯郸地下水水质评价中的应用,表明其结果合理,适用于水质评价。