Development of a risk measure as a sustainable project selection criterion

SUMMARY

Sustainable decision-making requires consideration of technology, ecology, and the social and political infrastructure of society. While it may never be possible to identify with certainty what is sustainable and what is not, an attempt has been made in this paper to formulate a measure that permits one to compare the performances of project alternatives with respect to risk. An algorithm is presented for the evaluation of a risk criterion that can be used with other criteria in the process of selecting project alternatives. The intent of the risk criterion is to involve project stakeholders in the process of quantifying the risks associated with different project alternatives.     

Prioritization of applicable drivers for green supply chain management implementation toward sustainability in Thailand

ABSTRACT

It is essential that the green supply chain management (GSCM) implementation is effectively supported by several strategic drivers for successful implementation and sustainability, especially for the ‘green’ start-ups with a sustainability-driven organizational strategy. This study aims to determine and prioritize the applicable drivers for GSCM implementation of sustainable development strategies in the electronics industry in Thailand. The applicable drivers and their priorities are obtained by applying the fuzzy group decision-making approaches including fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, based on Thai experts’ perspectives. In this study, three prominent organizational theories, resource-based view, relational view, and institutional theory, are needed to explain the drivers of sustainability and to develop a hierarchical model for prioritization of the drivers. Finally, based on the findings of this study, several recommendations are made that may help to improve the sustainable development in Thailand through more effective implementation of GSCM.     

民用机场消防指挥员决策能力分析

为研究民用机场消防指挥员决策能力,根据专家意见及相关规章、文件的规定,筛选出文化素质、身体素质、心理素质等18项影响机场消防指挥员决策能力的要素,并采用问卷调查的方式进行调研。运用SPSS 21.0对问卷进行信度分析、效度分析及因子分析,确定民用机场消防指挥员决策能力指标体系。根据该指标体系构建民用机场消防指挥员决策能力结构方程模型,运用Amos 17.0计算各变量的路径系数,进而得到各指标的权重,避免了人为打分方法确定权重的主观性。研究结果为分析民用机场消防指挥员决策能力提供更加准确、合理、可信的评价方法。     

煤自燃灾害气体指标的阶段特征试验研究

为分析煤自燃早期气体指标变化特征规律,更好地解决煤矿现场灭火救灾决策问题,通过煤自燃程序升温试验,首先得到煤样气氛中O2,CO,CO2,CH4,C2H4和C2H6气体的体积分数随温度的变化规律。根据煤体温度,将煤自燃前期划分为5个阶段(潜伏、储热、蒸发、活跃和乏氧)。分析3种不同变质程度的煤样的气体指标在各阶段的变化特征。建立煤自燃气体指标与特征温度阶段区间的对应关系。结果表明:在自燃潜伏阶段,煤的变质程度越低,早期越易产生CO,越难产生CH4;在储热阶段,煤的变质程度越低,早期越易且越快产生C2H6;在蒸发阶段,煤内外在水分脱附,低变质煤的C2H4也随之产生;在活跃阶段,各种气体体积分数均有剧烈增高的趋势,较高变质煤的C2H4也随之产生;在乏氧阶段,O2体积分数低于15%,与O2体积分数相关指标(CO/ΔO2,CO/CO2等)趋势有所改变。     

水质灰色预测模型在VBA中的实现

灰色预测是环境污染预测应用相当广泛的方法。根据文献报道,基于Matlab和Excel实现灰色预测中存在着占用内存、单元格填埋计算公式等等的不足,因此提出了一种基于VBA在Excel下编写宏程序轻松实现灰色预测的方法,并将其运用到北海市地表水污染物预测。结果表明,本程序简短,操作方便,计算结果准确可靠,彻底把用户从繁琐的手工操作中解放出来。     

西安市LUCC预测生态系统服务价值损失

人类活动作用于土地资源,使LUCC（土地利用／土地覆被变化）在全球环境变化过程中起主导作用,随着国际LUCC研究计划的进展,各国依据本国的实际情况开展研究。对西安市以往五年（2000-2004年）的土地利用基础数据开展调查统计分析,建立灰色系统动态GM（1,1）模型,预测2005—2010年西安市土地利用结构变化状况,尝试计算西安市土地生态系统服务价值损失（简称生态损失）,用一种直观经济指标-货币来反映这种生态损失。预测2010年西安市生态损失为331、84×10^6元。     

Local communities' participation in decision-making processes through planning and budgeting in African countries

Community participation and community based management are topical themes in current policy and discussion revolving around decision-making processes especially those dealing with natural resources management.This review shows that while governments have accepted the need to either cede or devolve control and management of natural resources to the local communities,the communities are not part and parcel of the planning and budgeting which are crucial in decisionmaking.Communities were seen to be more involved in the implementation of natural resource management programs but lacked ownership of the projects.This causes lack of commitment to the programs and at times hostile reaction from the communities.The communities are always at the receiving end when it pertains to losses in the exchange.Community participation was shown to be effective when the local population is involved not as co-operating users but as natural resource managers or owner managers.     

Multi-objective Programming and Social Welfare Analysis of Rural–urban Land Conversion Decision-making

Abstract

Rural–urban land conversion is an inevitable phenomenon in urbanization and industrialization. And the decision-making issue about this conversion is multi-objective because the social decision maker (the whole of central government and local authority) has to integrate the requirements of different interest groups (rural collective economic organizations, peasants, urban land users and the ones affected indirectly) and harmonize the sub-objects (economic, social and ecological outcomes) of this land allocation process. This paper established a multi-objective programming model for rural–urban land conversion decision-making and made some social welfare analysis correspondingly. Result shows that the general object of rural–urban land conversion decision-making is to reach the optimal level of social welfare in a certain state of resources allocation, while the preference of social decision makers and the value judgment of interest groups are two crucial factors which determine the realization of the rural–urban land conversion decision-making objects.     

结构物震害预测的灰色贝叶斯方法

本文提出了一种结构物震害预测的新方法。该方法棋于贝叶斯理论和灰色系统理论，可以充分考虑到某类结构物震害所表现出的共性和某一特写结构物所具有的特殊性，能作出较全面的反映结构物实际状况的震害预测。     

Rapid humanitarian assessments and rationality: a value-of-information study from Iraq, 2003-04

Rapid assessments are one of the standard informational tools in humanitarian response and are supposed to contribute to rational decision-making.(1) The extent to which the assessment organisation itself behaves rationally, however, is an open question. This can be evaluated against multiple criteria, such as the cost and value of the information it collects and its ability to adapt flexibly design or samples when the survey environment changes unforeseeably. An unusual data constellation from two concurrent recent (2003-04) rapid assessments in northern Iraq permits us to model part of the actual assessment behaviour in terms of geographical, community and prior substantive information attributes. The model correctly predicts the decisions, in 79 per cent of the 2,425 local communities in focus, that data collector teams in the Emergency Mine Action Survey made to visit or not to visit. The analysis demonstrates variably rational behaviour under conditions of insecurity, repeated regrouping and incomplete sampling frames. A pronounced bias towards very small rural settlements is irrational for the overall results, but may be a rational strategy of individual survey workers seeking to prolong their employment. Implications for future assessments are sketched in the areas of tools for urban surveys, greater adaptability, including early feedback from users, and sensibility to value-of-information concepts.