基于协整和因果分析的我国安全生产宏观政策干预研究

为进一步分析我国安全生产政策的实施效果及存在问题,根据政策时效干预度量化模型,采用协检验、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析等计量方法对1978-2006年我国特别重大事故发生趋势与政策时效干预力度关系进行量化分析,得出特别重人事故的发生与政策时效干预力度问存在长期均衡关系,且在10%的显著水平下,特别重大事故的发生是政策时效干预力度加强的格兰杰原因.同时分析表明,目前我国安全生产政策干预表现出两大缺点:被动性和滞后性.因此,应逐步开展生产安全事故宏观预警与政策模拟等研究,为提高安全生产宏观政策干预的主动性和前瞻性提供技术支持.     

基于可拓学石化装置失效后果严重度评估方法研究

石化企业中,石化装置的安全运行对保证企业的安全生产起到关键作用,其一旦失效发生事故,将导致巨大的人员伤亡及财产损失。因此,开展石化装置失效后果严重性的评价研究,对保证石化企业的安全生产具有重要意义。本文根据物元可拓性理论,结合石化装置失效后果的严重性情况,运用可拓评判方法建立石化装置失效后果严重度的综合评判模型,给出了评价步骤,最终确定设备失效后果的严重程度。研究结果表明,该方法可应用于多层次的工程风险评价问题,从而为石化工程项目风险管理提供了一种有效的分析方法。     

高危作业有害因素预防控制水平预警模型

针对职业卫生领域出现的急慢性职业病及突发性化学中毒等事件,本文采用预防控制水平指标体系,用因子分析法构建了单项有害因素的预警模型。在此基础上,利用加权平均法给出了多项有害因素的综合预警模型,其中,应用层次分析法确定各个有害因素的权重。高危作业有害因素预警模型的提出为高危作业有害因素防治提供了量化的科学依据。     

毒气泄漏事故居民疏散心理行为特征相关性研究

为了研究在毒气泄漏事故中居民的心理行为特征,选择发生过毒气泄漏事故的某化工企业,采用问卷法对其周边居民进行调查,并运用SPSS软件对调查问卷的结果进行独立性分析,从而得出居民在疏散过程中的各种心理行为反应的相关因素,为制定有效的应急疏散管理预案提供科学的依据。     

航空公司安全目标控制的研究与改进

通过对航空公司安全目标控制现状的分析,得出了前馈控制中维修隐患查找不力,现场控制中员工自控和领导监督缺乏针对性、安全目标激励作用大打折扣、规章手册不利于查找,以及公司的反馈控制名存实亡等问题。并提出改进意见：针对维修隐患查找提出了新的查找机制;对员工安全指标排序,作为控制和监督的依据;引进目视管理,增强安全目标的激励作用;建议为维修员工提供能够快速查找相关手册项目的设备;使用滚动计划法制定安全计划,并借用其反馈框架,引入因果图查找产生偏差的原因。     

Modeling of air quality with a modified two-dimensional Eulerian model： A case study in the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region of China

A modified two-dimensional Eulerian air quality model was used to simulate both the gaseous and particulate pollutant concentrations during October 21-24, 2004 in the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region, China. The most significant improvement to the model is the added capability to predict the secondary organic aerosols （SOA） concentrations because of the inclusion of the SOA formation chemistry. The meteorological input data were prepared using the CALMET meteorological model. The concentrations of aerosol-bound species such as NO3^-, NH4^＋, SO4^2-, and SOA were calculated in the fine particle size range （〈2.5 μm）. The results of the two-dimensional model were compared to the measurements at the ground level during the PRD Intensive Monitoring Campaign （IMC）. Overall, there were good agreements between the measured and modeled concentrations of inorganic aerosol components and O3. Both the measured and the modeled results indicated that the maximum hourly O3 concentrations exceeded the China National Air Quality Standard. The predicted 24-h average SOA concentrations were in reasonable agreement with those predicted by the method of minimum OC/EC ratio.     

Non-UV based germicidal activity of metal-doped TiO2 coating on solid surfaces

A stain-based screening method was developed to screen different catalyst coatings for their germicidal activity. A Baclight dead/live bacteria viability kit （invitrogen, molecular probes） was used for staining the cell. The screening was carried out following a standard procedure. This included loading cell suspension to solid surface and maintaining contact for 30 min, then staining with a mixture containing dyes. The stained cells were observed using an epifluorescent microscope and photographed with a CCD camera under UV. Metal-doped TiO2 coatings on AI plates were prepared and tested for non-UV germicidal activity without using UV. It was tested using model microorganisms such as Bakers Yeast （Saccharomyces cerevisiae）, Bacillus subtilis, Pseudomonas putida, and Escherichia coli. On the basis of the germicidal activity of catalyst and the degree of damage caused to the cells, the stained cells may appear green （viable）, green with red or yellow nuclei and yellow （compromised） or red （nonviable）. According to their stained color, cells were counted to calculate the percentage of dead, live, and compromised cells. Compromised cells are cells that grow very slowly after reculturing indicating a degree of reversible cell damage. Screening the germicidal activity using this staining method is accurate and efficient, and requires less time than the culture-based method. A modification to the procedure for measuring germicidal activity of rough surfaces or fibrous coatings was developed. Both TiO2 and metal-doped TiO2 （Ag, Pt, Au, Cu） possess non-UV based germicidal activity. The germicidal activity of TiO2 was found to be related with its wetting property and can be improved by UV irradiation before testing. It is not greatly affected by contact time, indicating a fast acting germicidal activity.     

Improvement of the antifouling characteristics in a bioreactor of polypropylene microporous membrane by the adsorption of Tween 20

Surface modification by physical adsorption of Tween 20 was accomplished on polypropylene microporous membranes (PPMMs). Attenuated total reflection-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR/FT-IR) and scanning electron microscope (SEM) were used to characterize the chemical and morphological changes on the membrane surfaces. Water contact angles and relative pure water fluxes were measured. The data showed that the hydrophilic performance for the modified membranes increased with the increase in the adsorption amount of Tween 20 onto the surface or into the pores of polypropylene microporous membranes. To test the antifouling property of the membranes by the adsorption of Tween 20 in a membrane bioreactor (MBR), filtration for active sludge was performed using synthetic wastewater. With the help of the data of water fluxes and the FE-SEM photos of the modified PPMMs before or after operating in a MBR for about 12 d, the PPMMs with monolayer adsorption of Tween 20 showed higher remained flux and stronger antifouling ability than unmodified membrane and other modification membranes studied.     

基于生态—经济协调发展的乡镇空间功能分区

按提供产品的类别,乡镇尺度空间由生态空间、农业空间和建设空间组成,这3部分空间共同承载着乡镇社会经济发展的重任。坚持生态保护对发展的约束与支撑功能并存的理念,建立以生态约束为前提,并与开发建设协同推进的分区指标体系、技术方法及应用模式,是生态文明战略下空间功能分区的有益探讨。以南京市六合区雄州街道为案例,借助Arc GIS空间分析工具,采用互斥性矩阵分类法,通过对生态约束、农业发展、工业发展与人居环境等建设开发适宜性的单项与综合评价的集成,构建生态、农业和建设空间布局的总体架构,实现了街镇空间功能的整合与科学定位;划分禁止建设区、限制建设区、适宜建设区和已建设区等四大类功能区,并提出各功能区的生态环境保护措施与产业发展导向,为实施区域发展与生态保护的协同推进提供了依据。     

河流综合水质评价方法比较研究

为探讨综合水质评价结论的科学合理性,对典型的7种河流综合水质评价方法,包括单因子评价法、污染指数法、模糊评价法、灰色系统评价法、层次分析法、人工神经网络法、水质标识指数法,在归类分析其特性的基础上,针对代表性的评价样本,进行了综合水质评价比较研究。主要结论为：①单因子评价法以最差水质指标所属类别作为综合水质类别,评价结论表现为过保护;②污染指数法能够直观判断综合水质是否达到功能区目标,但是不能判断综合水质类别;③对模糊数学法、灰色系统评价法、层次分析法、BP人工神经网络法和水质标识指数法等5种典型评价方法,当综合水质为Ⅰ~Ⅴ类水情形时,这几种方法评价结论基本一致,证明这5种典型评价方法对Ⅰ~Ⅴ类水的评价结论具有科学合理性;④当综合水质为劣Ⅴ类水时,模糊数学法、灰色系统评价法、层次分析法、BP人工神经网络法的评价结论偏保守,而水质标识指数法解决了劣Ⅴ类水质的连续性描述问题,能够对劣Ⅴ类水进行科学合理评价,并对Ⅰ~Ⅴ类水、劣Ⅴ类水不黑臭、劣Ⅴ类水黑臭进行全面、科学合理的定性与定量评价.