近代淮河流域自然灾害与人口的变动

近代淮河流域,灾害的多发性,对农村社会造成严重危机,尤其对农村人口的变动带来了深远的影响.该文借助人口学的相关理论与方法,运用历史文献对自然灾害打击下的近代淮河流域的农村人口数量的变动、迁移以及人口素质的变化进行考察和分析.研究认为:在灾害的打击下,农村人口数量发生变动,特别是一些大的灾荒造成的人口死亡率较高,这些严重...     

Parameter Uncertainty Reduction for SWAT Using Grace,Streamflow, and Groundwater Table Data for Lower Missouri River Basin1

Abstract: This study incorporates the newly available Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) water storage data and water table data from well logs to reduce parameter uncertainty in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibration using a SUFI2 (sequential uncertainty fitting) framework for the Lower Missouri River Basin. Model evaluations are performed in multiple stages using a multiobjective function consisting of multisite streamflow and GRACE water storage data as well as a groundwater component. Results show that (1) a model calibrated with both streamflow and GRACE data simultaneously can maintain the water balance for the whole basin, but may improperly partition surface flow and base flow. Additional inclusion of the groundwater constraint can significantly improve the model performance in groundwater hydrological processes. In our case, the estimation of specific yield of shallow aquifers has been increased to 10^?2 from previous much underestimated level (<10^?3). (2) The daily streamflow data are needed to confine the parameters related to water flow in channels such as the Manning’s coefficient, which are less sensitive to the monthly simulations. (3) Parameters are nonuniformly sensitive for different goal variables, and thus, proper specification of a prior distribution of parameters may be the key factor for global optimization algorithms to obtain stable and realistic model performance.     

油田钻井废弃物无害化处理技术在塔里木盆地油田井区的示范推广

利用“油田钻井废弃物无害化处理技术”,在塔里木盆地油田井区开展该项技术的适用性评估与示范推广,以实现油田钻井资源化、减量化及清洁化生产的目的。     

WEATHER MODIFICATION: AN ECONOMIC ALTERNATIVE FOR AUGMENTING WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT. Experimental results of cloud seeding in Southwestern Colorado suggest that runoff can be increased by 25 percent over a 3,300 mile area. There is a need to estimate the economic consequences in the Colorado River Basin. The evidence presented suggests that weather modification is an economically feasible means to provide additional water for the basin. Compared with other proposed means of augmenting water supplies, weather modifications appear to be one of the least cost alternatives. A very low proportion of weather modification costs are fixed; thus the program is easily reversible. Also, a relatively small increase in daily precipitation covers the direct costs of operation. Benefits of water produced by weather modification included power production and irrigation of forage crops. In the long run, if additional water is used for higher valued fruit and vegetable production, or for domestic and industrial purposes, its value would rise sharply. Preliminary investigation of extra-market costs and benefits suggests that while they have little effect on the benefit-cost ratio, they may be very important to individuals and groups affected. The distribution of costs and benefits is important as the benefits accrue to downstream users and some of the costs are incurred by Coloradoans. There is a need for further research on the long-run economic effects of weather modification programs, particularly with respect to extra-market factors.     

Communication in Ecosystem Management: A Case Study of Cross-Disciplinary Integration in the Assessment Phase of the Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project

Effective communication is essential to the success of collaborative ecosystem management projects. In this paper, we investigated the dynamics of the Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Projects (ICBEMP) cross-disciplinary integration process in the assessment phase. Using a case study research design, we captured the rich trail of experience through conducting in-depth interviews and collecting information from internal and public documents, videos, and meetings related to the ICBEMP. Coding and analysis was facilitated by a qualitative analysis software, NVivo. Results include the range of internal perspectives on barriers and facilitators of cross-disciplinary integration in the Science Integration Team (SIT). These are arrayed in terms of discipline-based differences, organizational structures and activities, individual traits of scientists, and previous working relationships. The ICBEMP organization included a team of communication staffs (CT), and the data described the CT as a mixed group in terms of qualifications and educational backgrounds that played a major role in communication with actors external to the ICBEMP organization but a minor one in terms of internal communication. The data indicated that the CT-SIT communication was influenced by characteristics of actors and structures related to organizations and their cultures. We conclude that the ICBEMP members may not have had a sufficient level of shared understanding of central domains, such as the task at hand and ways and timing of information sharing. The paper concludes by suggesting that future ecosystem management assessment teams use qualified communications specialists to design and monitor the development of shared cognition among organization members in order to improve the effectiveness of communication and cross-disciplinary integration.     

PLANNING AND SELECTING MULTIOBJECTIVE PROJECTS BY GOAL PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT. A multiple goal planning approach is proposed as a solution to the public water resources project selection problem. The goal programming technique enables a comprehensive water resources model. The model considers both economic and environmental objectives and may be implemented with data which are available to project planners.     

鄂尔多斯白垩系环河含水岩组中的地球化学反向模拟

在了解鄂尔多斯盆地的地形、地势、地貌、新构造运动、岩石类型、岩性构造和其他特征的基础上，运用化学热力学原理、质量作用定律和质量守恒定律，用反向模拟的方法对白垩系环河组地下水进行了水-岩作用的地球化学模拟。对该区地下水的演化过程进行了定量的分析研究，揭示了其水化学场的形成机理，总结了矿物的溶解沉淀规律，为该区水文地质模型的建立、地下水资源的水质水量评价及其合理开发利用和科学管理提供了科学依据，可供该地区水土流失等地质灾害的预防和综合治理参考。     

洪水预报调度决策支持系统的设计与开发

基于C/S和B/S相结合的结构模式,开发了九龙江流域洪水预报调度决策支持系统。该系统采用了马斯京根矩阵解法、卡尔曼滤波实时校正、交互式调度方案生成、ASP等关键技术,实现了信息管理、洪水预报、洪水调度和系统管理等功能。     

Rapid Assessment of Soil Erosion in the Rio Lempa Basin, Central America, Using the Universal Soil Loss Equation and Geographic Information Systems

Soil erosion is a severe problem for many developing regions that lack adequate infrastructure to combat the problem. The authors established a first-order method for prioritizing areas to be examined and remediated using preexisting data and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The Universal Soil Loss Equation was applied to the Rio Lempa Basin in Central America using geographic information systems and remote sensing technologies, and the estimated erosion rates were compared with sediment delivery ratios. Spatial analysis indicates that agriculture on very steep slopes contributes only a small fraction to the total estimated soil erosion, whereas agriculture on gentle and moderately steep slopes contributes a large fraction of the erosion. Although much of the basin is in El Salvador, the greatest estimated amount of erosion is from Honduras. Data quality and availability were impaired by a lack of coordination among agencies and across countries. Several avenues for improving the authors’ methods are described.     

MODELING DRINKING WATER QUALITY VIOLATIONS WITH BAYESIAN NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Compliance violations at community water systems are rare but represent significant human health risks. These risks are mediated by the decision schema of human operators at water treatment facilities. However, causal uncertainty among physical and human factors involved in water quality problems complicates assessment of their probability and severity. This study uses a probabilistic Bayesian network modeling approach to explore the causes of compliance violations in a sample of water treatment systems in Pennsylvania. The model presented here is one of several created by treatment system operators during an expert elicitation process. The expert model alone predicts violations poorly, suggesting that experts make inaccurate quantitative estimates. However, Bayesian networks are capable of combining the subjective expertise of treatment system operators with the objective compliance histories of the facilities they manage, and the expert model accurately predicts violations when trained with historical compliance data. Analysis of the trained network reveals those components of the treatment process, including environmental and system characteristics as well as operator decisions, that play the greatest role in determining the likelihood of major violation types. Among operator decisions, coagulant dosing and filter backwash frequency are the most important determinants of violation likelihood.