河南省境内淮河流域历史时期旱涝等级序列的重建

本文根据旱涝史料，运用旱涝等级评定法，对河南省境内淮河流域１４７０～１９４９年逐年的旱涝状况进行了评定；并采用“区域综合法”，重建了河南省境内淮河流域１４７０～１９４９年的旱涝等级序列。     

MISSOURI RIVER - THE NEW COMPACTING GAME1

ABSTRACT: This paper addresses the recent interest in management of the Missouri River. Interstate issues in the river basin include interbasin water diversions, riverbed and shoreline degradation, loss of recreational and natural areas, reduction in navigation capacity, the status of the Pick-Sloan Missouri Basin Program in terms of general river development, and the elimination of river basin commissions, An attempt to develop a comprehensive interstate water compact failed in the 1950s. The new efforts towards establishing a compact are discussed, as well as other available mechanisms for resolution of the current political and legal differences among the ten river basin states.     

CLIMATIC VARIATION AND SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN THE GREAT BASIN REGION1

ABSTRACT: There is mounting evidence that increasing amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide may lead to significant changes in global climate during the next century. The possible effects of such climatic changes on surface runoff in the Great Basin Region of the western United States has been investigated by applying water balance models to four watersheds in Nevada and Utah. The most probable change, a 2°C increase in average annual temperature coupled with a 10 percent decrease in precipitation, would reduce runoff from 17 to 28 percent of the present mean, with drier basins showing the greatest change. Decreasing precipitation by 25 percent causes runoff reductions of 33 to 51 percent. Equivalent changes to a cooler and wetter climate show corresponding increases in runoff of approximately the same magnitude, but such a shift is not considered likely. Based on projected water requirements for the year 2000, a change to a warmer and drier climate would cause severe water shortages in many parts of the Great Basin.     

SALINITY ISSUES AND WATER DEVELOPMENT IN THE GREEN RIVER BASIN,WYOMING1

Water development in the Green River Basin of Wyoming is projected to increase salinity downstream in the Green River and Colorado River, and thereby increase salinity costs to users of water from these two rivers. Despite these water quality and economic impacts to downstream water users, Wyoming will probably be able to develop its currently unused but allocated water supplies of the Green River Basin. The Colorado River Compact and Upper Colorado River Basin Compact are binding, and protect Wyoming's share of the Colorado River System waters for future use. The argument that water may be used to greater profit downstream is not sufficient to reduce Wyoming's allocation. In addition, the no-injury rule under the appropriation doctrine of law does not appear to protect prior downstream appropriations from increasing salinity in this case.     

ESTIMATES OF THE ECONOMIC VALUE PRODUCTIVITY OF IRRIGATION WATER IN PAKISTAN FROM FARM SURVEYS1

Data from two cross-sectional surveys totaling over 2000 farmers in Pakistan are analyzed with regression techniques to estimate the value productivity of irrigation water and related resources. Returns to irrigation water vary by province, but in general are found to be high relative to estimated costs of obtaining water. Salinity of water supplies is an important productivity depressant. The results will be useful in determining the economic feasibility of various means for augmenting supplies and for improving delivery and application efficiencies.     

REAPPRAISAL OF WATER SUPPLY RESOURCES IN DELAWARE RIVER BASIN USING SYNTHETIC HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT The 60's drought (1961 1966) which hit the Northeastern United States, had its center over the Delaware River Basin and caused water supply shortages to New York City, Philadelphia, and many other towns and industries in the Basin. Until this event occurred, the existing water supply sources and those planned for the future had been considered adequate, as they were designed for the worst drought of record (usually the 1930-31 drought). In view of this “change in hydrology,” the Delaware River Basin Commission authorized a study (DRBC Resolution 67-4) to re-evaluate the adequacy of existing and planned water supply sources of the Delaware River Basin and its Service Area (New York City and northern New Jersey). Synthetic hydrology is a tool which can be used to overcome many of the limitations of the traditional approach. By analyzing generated streamflow traces in this study, it has been determined that there is a definite relationship between the accumulated rainfall deficiency during the drought and the return periods associated with various durations of runoff in the drought. This indicated that generated traces can be used to standardize the hydrology over an area where the intensity of drought varied. This represented an important facet in the study, because it provided a means to equalize the effects of this drought over the study area, and gave the Delaware River Basin Commission more information so that it could better plan and manage its water resources equitably, not only for the people within the Basin, but for the New York City and northern New Jersey areas as well. Synthetic hydrology was used to determine yield-probability relationships for 50-year periods, and storage-yield-frequency relationships for existing and planned water-supply reservoirs. It was also used to determine yield-probability relationships for reservoir systems within the Basin. In the study, it was determined that monthly streamflow traces and uniform draft rates could be used in yield analysis because of the magnitude of the reservoirs and because seasonal variations of draft rate are small in the study area. Although it was found that with the streamflow generating models (first order Markov) in common use today, it is not possible to definitely determine the actual frequency of a very severe historic drought, it is possible to place a drought in perspective by using synthetic hydrology. The study showed that it is a useful tool in determining water availability over a basin and is useful in studying water management problems such as interbasin transfers, and reservoir systems operations.     

REASONABLY FULL HYDROLOGIC DEVELOPMENT OF RESERVOIR SITES1

The size of multipurpose reservoir development is usually determined by an economic analysis of reservoir capabilities and the present and projected water resources needs which can be satisfied. This analysis is referred to as project formulation, wherein optimum conditions are sought. In responding to multiple objectives, i.e., national economic development, regional development and environmental quality, which are being considered in river basin planning in recent years, reservoirs should provide for reasonably full hydrologic development. Additional storage will be needed to provide opportunities for economic development, as well as meet unexpected development. Also, it provides more flow regulation capability for quality of environment considerations. An analysis has been made on twelve reservoir sites in the New York State portion of the Susquehanna River Basin to determine the so-called “reasonably full hydrologic development of reservoir sites.” Hydrologic, economic, environmental and physical characteristics of the sites are taken into consideration. For normal conditions, it can be concluded that a yield equivalent to about 80 percent of the average discharge (runoff) can be considered as reasonably full hydrologic development for reservoir sites in the Susquehanna River Basin in New York. The same technique can be applied elsewhere to determine reasonably full hydrologic development of reservoir sites.     

WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT-PLANNING FOR ACTION1

ABSTRACT: Proper planning of water resource management programs is the essential ingredient for effective decision-making. Increasing demands on our finite water resources make it more vital that programs get off the shelf and are acted upon. There is a gap between our intentions for and OUI results from the planning process. We should examine our failures, identify causes, and learn from them. One of the primary causes is failure to identify the potentials of the implementing agencies early in the planning process. These agencies constitute a hierarchy of governmental units at national, state, regional and local levels. Each of these levels has its own interests, point of view, capabilities and constraints. A plan which is technically and functionally sound can fail as a program if these conflicting interests are not accounted for. The implementation mechanisms must be identified as an initial phase of the planning process. All levels of the governmental hierarchy must be involved throughout the planning process. The successful plan must also provide for suitable assignment of responsibilities which are accepted by the executing agency and monitored for satisfactory fulfillment. Consistency and continuity of the advocate agency are further essential elements to the success of the plan. Experience in water resource management planning has shown that these strategies will produce programs which are accepted, implemented and accomplish the goals and objectives of the planning process.     

MATHEMATICAL MODELS: PLANNING TOOLS FOR THE GREAT LAKES1

The Great Lakes Basin Commission has initiated a Framework Study to assess the present and projected water- and related land-resource problems and demands in the Great Lakes Basin. Poorly defined objectives; incomplete and inconsistent data arrays; unknown air, biota, water, and sediment interactions; and multiple planning considerations for interconnected, large lake systems hinder objective planning. To incorporate mathematical modeling as a planning tool for the Great Lakes, a two-phase program, comprising a feasibility and design study followed by contracted and in-house modeling, data assembly, and plan development, has been initiated. The models will be used to identify sensitivities of the lakes to planning and management alternatives, insufficiencies in the data base, and inadequately understood ecosystem interactions. For the first time objective testing of resource-utilization plans to identify potential conflicts will provide a rational and cost-effective approach to Great Lakes management. Because disciplines will be interrelated, the long-term effects of planning alternatives and their impacts on neighboring lakes and states can be evaluated. Testing of the consequences of environmental accidents and increased pollution levels can be evaluated, and risks to the resource determined. Examples are cited to demonstrate the use of such planning tools.     

长江流域可持续发展的环境支持系统研究

可持续发展取决于智力、资源、环境、动力、过程五大支持系统的正常协调运转１。其中环境支持系统是一个重要方面。但目前长江流域的环境支持系统较为脆弱,生态环境问题比较严重,若不积极研究采取有效措施加以解决,对长江流域的持续发展极为不利。本文根据有关资料,对持续发展的可利用空间及其五大支持系统作了较为系统的论述,并对长江流域环境支持系统面临的主要问题和对策作了较深入的分析。研究认为,长江流域环境支持系统面