芜湖市土地资源人口承载力与可持续发展研究

作为人类赖以生存和发展物质基础的土地资源有限性与人口的增长加剧了人地间的矛盾 ,土地资源人口承载力问题日益引起社会关注。在总结芜湖市土地资源利用现状、特点和当前人口食物消费水平的基础上分析了土地现实生产能力 ,同时为预测芜湖市 2 0 0 0、2 0 0 5、2 0 10年人口数量、复种指数、耕地面积及粮食单产发展趋势而分别建立了一元线性回归模型与灰色系统 GM(1,1)模型 ,通过取其平均值以提高其精度 ;并结合温饱型、宽裕型、小康型与富裕型四种消费水平分别探讨了预测期内芜湖市土地资源人口承载力状况 ,最后从耕地总量动态平衡、提高粮食单产与质量及控制人口增长等方面提出了可持续发展对策 ,为芜湖市建立稳定、协调、持续发展的人地关系提供科学的理论依据     

西藏自治区生态环境的区域分异特征及其管理对策

根据不同的地域类型，资源结构，生产生活特征及生态环境状况，本文将西藏自治区划分为藏北区，藏中区，藏南区，藏西南区，藏东南区和藏东区等6大地域单元，分析了它们各自的自然分异特征，建立了7个基本标识，4个指标的判别体系，对上述6个区域进行了可持续性定量判别和综合评价，作者为西藏自治区6大区域从总体上看都是“弱持续”，其中藏东南区的区域可持续性最好；藏中区和藏东区次之，藏南区，藏北区和藏西南区的区域可持续性最差，文章最后针对以上6大区域分别提出了相应的生态环境管理对策和建议。     

长江滩地资源调查与开发研究

利用先进的遥感技术对滩地资源进行调查，可以直接准确地圈定滩地的范围及其土壤性质。本文以遥感技术为基础提出了长江滩地的综合开发模式。     

基于Brute-Force方法的京津冀区域夏季臭氧反应机制

近年来京津冀区域夏季臭氧（O₃）体积分数仍居高位,轻中度污染频繁发生,相关反应机制研究亟需开展.利用WRF-Chem模式对该区域2018年夏季代表月O₃浓度进行模拟,并基于Brute-Force方法探究了区域层面前体物减排的O₃变化.O₃在不同排放情景的变化表明,该区域O₃反应机制以VOCs控制区与非敏感区为主,VOCs控制区主要聚集京津冀中部,呈南北带状分布,面积占比15.60%~26.59%.区域各市城区的O₃浓度对前体物排放的相对响应强度（RRI）具有很大的空间差异性,对于VOCs,RRI_VOC在0.03~0.16范围内;而对于NO_x,RRI_NO_x在-0.40~0.03范围内.纬度越高的城区,RRI值越剧烈,表明了越为显著的区域输送影响.前体物排放强度高的城区,RRI_NO_x值越低,暗示RRI_NO_x对当地NO₂浓度的负向依赖;但RRI_VOC与NO₂水平无明显关联,更依赖于对前体物相对丰度（VOCs ：NO_x）.RRI_VOC与RRI_NO_x比值在多数城市表现为负值,VOCs协同减排以抑制O₃浓度恶化十分必要;该比值的绝对值在工业化和城市化高的城市远低于普通中小城市,意味着这些城市VOCs协同减排的要求将更高.然而,即使在前体物50%减排下,区域各城市O₃浓度改善仍然有限,毗邻省份的区域外联合治理也依然重要.     

基于PM2.5来源解析的减排方案制定

为定量解析PM_2.5浓度与排放源削减比例之间的关系,利用WRF-NAQPMS/OSAM模式对2017年12月京津冀及周边地区“2+26”城市的PM_2.5浓度变化和来源解析进行了模拟,并基于来源解析结果对各城市进行了迭代减排实验.结果表明,各城市削减本地排放源的效果最为显著,由于受化学生成影响引起的排放源和PM_2.5浓度之间的高度非线性关系,使得线性减排方案具有较大的局限性.各城市排放源削减引起的PM_2.5浓度变化主要由排放源的一次贡献和化学生成的二次贡献组成,其中化学生成的二次贡献浓度与行业解析结果的函数之间存在显著的线性关系.随着排放源的削减,清洁期间PM_2.5浓度中各组分的浓度随之下降,污染期间硝酸盐、二次有机气溶胶、铵盐等浓度不降反升,这为迭代减排方案中物种的选择提供了指导意义.     

基于双重基尼系数的环渤海地区制造业集聚研究

利用产业基尼系数、区位基尼系数和区位熵分析了环渤海三省两市的制造业集聚状况.研究结果表明,环渤海地区三省两市的产业集聚程度很高,有11类产业在区域内存在高度集聚;北京市的产业集聚最为明显,山东省内的集聚程度相对较低;高新技术产业在北京和天津集聚明显,山东和河北主要是资源—加工型产业集聚,资源型产业在辽宁集聚相对明显,环渤海地区存在着明显的产业和空间双重集聚.     

A Hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot: Implications of weather variability and global circulation

In this study we combined an extensive database of observed wildfires with high-resolution meteorological data to build a novel spatially and temporally varying survival model to analyze fire regimes in the Mediterranean ecosystem in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa during the period 1980-2000. The model revealed an important influence of seasonally anomalous weather on fire probability, with increased probability of fire in seasons that are warmer and drier than average. In addition to these local-scale influences, the Antarctic Ocean Oscillation (AAO) was identified as an important large-scale influence or teleconnection to global circulation patterns. Fire probability increased in seasons during positive AAO phases, when the subtropical jet moves northward and low level moisture transport decreases. These results confirm that fire occurrence in the CFR is strongly affected by climatic variability at both local and global scales, and thus likely to respond sensitively to future climate change. Comparison of the modelled fire probability between two periods (1951-1975 and 1976-2000) revealed a 4-year decrease in an average fire return time. If, as currently forecasted, climate change in the region continues to produce higher temperatures, more frequent heat waves, and/or lower rainfall, our model thus indicates that fire frequency is likely to increase substantially. The regional implications of shorter fire return times include shifting community structure and composition, favoring species that tolerate more frequent fires.     

山南地区珍稀濒危藏药植物资源特征

针对西藏山南地区珍稀濒危藏药植物资源本底不清、家底不明、开发不合理等现状,在对该区域药用植物进行实地考察、座谈走访、样本采集及室内测定等基础上,重点分析了珍稀濒危藏药植物资源的种类与分布、生物量与蕴藏量、濒危程度与至危因素。结果表明:山南地区有49 种珍稀濒危藏药植物,隶属25 科43 属,占整个西藏高原濒危藏药植物种类的65.33%。中国特有种占53.06%,其中西藏特有种占20.41%,错那县种类占73.47%。以山坡为生境药用植物占75.51%,仅分布在海拔3 000 m 以上的种类占61.22%,多年生草本占83.67%,全草类药用植物占55.10%。平均单株生物量最高的是粉枝莓,为1 830.48 g;最低的是冬虫夏草,仅为0.31 g。羊齿天门冬的根冠比最大,是5.31;最小的是马尿泡,为0.04。粉枝莓的产量和蕴藏量均最高,分别为36.61 kg/hm²和34 040.78 t;其次是暗红小檗,为27.00 kg/hm²和10 759.37 t;最低的是椭圆叶花锚,仅为0.004 kg/hm²和2.37 t。Ⅰ级濒危藏药植物资源的产量与蕴藏量排序均是:大花红景天>桃儿七>喜马拉雅紫茉莉>西藏秦艽>鸡蛋参>金球黄堇>矮黄堇>露蕊乌头>毛瓣绿绒蒿>乌奴龙胆>假耧斗菜>长果婆婆纳>篦齿虎耳草>冬虫夏草。该区濒危藏药植物全株蕴藏量为60 959.12 t,药用部位蕴藏量为48 663.97 t,占79.83%。经济价值较高的冬虫夏草蕴藏量为9.30 t。山南地区Ⅰ级濒危药用植物种类比例大,独特的生物学特性、脆弱的生态环境以及人为干扰的主导性是导致濒危的主要因素,建议就地保护与迁地保护同行、科学研究与开发利用并举,实现资源的持续开发利用。     

Assessment of traditional rights,local interference and natural resource management in Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary

An assessment of human interference in Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary (KWLS) showed huge dependence of local communities on forest fringes. KWLS is under active consideration as a national park because of its unique flora and fauna. Studies have evidenced habitat destruction and successional changes in the area because of ongoing unsustainable harvesting and logging. The present study provides an integrated approach towards evaluating resource extraction and management of the sanctuary. The study was based on in-depth semi-structured interviews and group discussions with local inhabitants of six villages and with forest officials. In addition, regeneration patterns and vegetation analysis was conducted in three land tenurial systems: community forest (CF), reserve forest (RF) and protected forest (PF). Key issues identified were wildlife offences, encroachment, pressure from unsustainable harvesting of resources and lack of livelihood opportunities. Ecological studies showed continuous change in regeneration patterns in forest patches/stands. The local survey stressed managing sanctuary fringes considering the village economy, social issues and resource requirements, and enhancing on-farm resource production to reduce pressure on forests. Forest personnel demanded more training on encroachment and poaching, these being major threats to biodiversity and bio-resources. Supporting and providing better livelihood opportunities is a viable option for minimizing pressure and managing biodiversity of the area through active community participation. This study generated useful outcomes and strategies for advancing policies to reduce pressure and overcome management constraints in the sanctuary.     

三峡地区主要地类的自动提取方法研究

针对三峡地区地貌类型复杂、土地利用多元化及遥感影像变异大的特征,在完成图像预处理和辅助资料收集的前提下,提出了一种基于样本和辅助资料可交互作业的计算机全自动土地利用类型提取方法。应用专业的图像处理软件eCognition为平台,通过选取样本、寻找最佳波段并生成判别函数来达到提取的目的,在很大程度上减弱了遥感判读中“同物异谱”、“异物同谱”、“边界过渡”等现象对分类结果的影响。分类结果输出为常用的栅格以及矢量格式,方便地实现了与其它栅格和矢量处理软件的兼容。运用自动提取的方法完成了三峡地区主要土地利用类型的自动提取工作并取得了较高的验证精度;在大面积的土地利用调查中应用遥感图像自动分类方法来获取土地利用信息的技术路线和方法方面作了一定探索。