观测误差对非线性环境模型参数识别的影响

采用SCE-UA方法和RSA方法，比较了在不同的观测误差条件下，优化方法和不确定性分析方法对于非线性模型参数识别的影响。分析表明，RSA方法是在具有观测误差的数据条件下进行参数识别的一种有效手段。同时，通过比较分析，发现RSA方法预测的浓度平均值和概率最大值与“真实值”并不完全一致。因此，在使用RSA方法时，应该充分考虑预测区间，以降低决策风险。     

日喀则台观测环境存在的问题和解决办法

西藏日喀则地震台处于特殊的地理位置和地理环境,观测环境受到来自自然和人为因素的诸多干扰,本文剖析了各个干扰因素对观测环境影响,提出了一些具体而可行的解决办法。     

对壳牌HSE作用机理的系统思考

生产过程中的每个操作者其实质是一个相对独立的生产基元系统,每个生产基元系统之中都有一个起控制作用的HSE基元系统,二者相依相随、相辅相成.以此为基,可以为我们从整体上认识壳牌HSE提供一个独特的视角,进而为我们从本质上认识壳牌HSE的作用机理提供帮助.     

印尼钻井项目 HSSE 体系建立与实施

分析了当前印尼钻井项目公共安全和HSE一体化管理体系的特点,介绍了体系运行的具体做法及管理措施。     

油田企业交通HSE管理

介绍了油田企业交通HSE管理的整体思路,从驾驶员、车辆、道路、运行等方面阐述了HSE管理的具体内容。     

HSE管理目标和管理方案中存在问题与对策

探讨了HSE管理目标和管理方案中存在的问题，并提出了解决对策。     

民勤沙尘源区近地面降尘特征研究

借助近地面沙尘暴监测系统进行沙尘暴监测,分析民勤沙尘源区近地面降尘分布特征.结果表明:民勤降尘量与沙尘天气发生频率密切相关,春季3,4月沙尘高发期月降尘量分别为9.0和9.5 mg/cm2.降尘随距地面高度的增加而减小,最大降尘出现在近地面1 m处,月降尘量为9.7 mg/cm2;降尘受下垫面条件影响较大,从荒漠区到绿洲边缘,风速减弱4.11%,总降尘量由25.0 mg/cm2减少到20.6 mg/cm2;绿洲内部受防护林作用,风速减弱30.45%,总降尘量增到24.6 mg/cm2,最大降尘量提高到近地面9 m处,与绿洲防护林冠层平均高度相吻合.风速对近地面20m内的降尘影响明显,平均降尘量2.5 mg/cm2.距地面9 m的高度范围内,降尘随持续时间变化迅速增加,降尘增量可达3.1 mg/cm2.      

基于精细观测资料的深圳不同季节霾及其污染特征分析

利用2010~2013年逐时霾、能见度和空气质量监测数据,分析了深圳霾天气的变化特征、霾与空气质量和气象条件的关系.结果表明:深圳市霾日数总体呈现增多增强趋势,2009年开始明显下降;霾日数呈“V”型月变化:即秋冬季多、春夏季少,秋冬季多发持续时间长、影响严重的霾过程,春夏季多发持续时间短的霾过程; 霾常伴有污染发生(35%),污染以轻度污染为主;霾时首要污染物PM2.5最多、其次O3,这说明PM2.5是造成深圳霾的主因,且深圳光化学污染严重. 霾时PM2.5、PM10 和O3季节变化明显,冬春季首要污染物以PM2.5为主(75%以上),夏秋季O3和PM2.5为主;分析还发现,风、相对湿度与霾密切相关,风速越弱,湿度越大, 越利于霾出现和发展.约80%的中重度霾出现在风速<2m/s,相对湿度70%~90%的情况下.     

EFFECT OF SEMI‐PERCHED GROUND WATER ON MONITORING OF GROUND WATER LEVELS IN A DEVELOPED AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: Interpretation of ground water level changes in a developed aquifer usually relies on reference to some benchmark such as “predevelopment” ground water levels, changes from fall to fall and/or spring to spring, or to determination of maximum stress during the pumping season. The assumption is that ground water levels measured in the monitoring well accurately reflect the state of the ground water resource in terms of quantity in storage and the effects of local pumping. This assumption is questionable based on the patterns shown in continuous hydrographs of water levels in monitoring wells in Nebraska, and wells installed to determine vertical gradients. These hydrographs show clear evidence for vertical ground water gradients and recharge from overlying parts of the aquifer system to deeper zones in which production wells are screened. The classical concept of semi‐perched ground water, as described by Meinzer, is demonstrated by these hydrographs. The presence of semi‐perched ground water (Meinzer definition, there is no intervening unsaturated zone) invalidates the use of measured ground water levels in regional observation programs for detailed numerical management of the resource. Failure to recognize the Meinzer effect has led to faulty management. The best use of data from the observation well network would be for detection of trends and education unless it is clearly understood what is being measured.     

Fires, explosions and related incidents at work in Great Britain in 1996/97 and 1997/98

Incidents in Great Britain reported to the Health and Safety Executive during 1996/97 and 1997/98 involving fires, explosions, runaway chemical reactions and unignited releases of flammable materials are reviewed. Statistical comparisons are made against previous years based on the materials involved, and a number of common themes and causes are identified.