Performance of IUCN proxies for generation length

One of the criteria used by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to assess threat status is the rate of decline in abundance over 3 generations or 10 years, whichever is longer. The traditional method for calculating generation length (T) uses age‐specific survival and fecundity, but these data are rarely available. Consequently, proxies that require less information are often used, which introduces potential biases. The IUCN recommends 2 proxies based on adult mortality rate, = α + 1/d, and reproductive life span, = α + z^*RL, where α is age at first reproduction, d is adult mortality rate, RL is reproductive life span, and z is a coefficient derived from data for comparable species. We used published life tables for 78 animal and plant populations to evaluate precision and bias of these proxies by comparing and with true generation length. Mean error rates in estimating T were 31% for and 20% for , but error rates for were 16% when we subtracted 1 year ( ), as suggested by theory; also provided largely unbiased estimates regardless of the true generation length. Performance of depends on compilation of detailed data for comparable species, but our results suggest taxonomy is not a reliable indicator of comparability. All 3 proxies depend heavily on a reliable estimate of age at first reproduction, as we illustrated with 2 test species. The relatively large mean errors for all proxies emphasized the importance of collecting the detailed life‐history information necessary to calculate true generation length. Unfortunately, publication of such data is less common than it was decades ago. We identified generic patterns of age‐specific change in vital rates that can be used to predict expected patterns of bias from applying .     

Minimizing disruptions caused by damming and ensuring the health of downstream ecosystems

In view of the Brazilian Ten‐Year Energy Expansion Plan 2021, this article presents a discussion on environmental flow (e‐flow). The authors analyze the literature to show the evolution of publications concerning e‐flow releases from the perspective of ecosystems services preservation considering results from different case studies from throughout the world. Finally, two main recommendations are drawn regarding e‐flow are: (1) performing a holistic approach to e‐flow planning, including hydrological, hydraulic, water quality, habitat, and riparian zone considerations; and (2) installing in new structures adequate bottom outlets to allow a range of adjustable e‐flow from reservoir dams to reproduce natural flow variations.     

电厂建设运行中的水土流失预测与水土保持设计

在燃煤电厂建设运行的同时,将引起一系列的水土流失问题.以四川国电金堂电厂二期扩建工程为例,简要说明项目区水土流失预测的内容和方法,并在其基础上对可能产生的水土流失和危害进行了分析,同时介绍了建设期和运行期采取的综合防治措施,为类似工程的水土保持提供借鉴.     

Enhanced science–stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.     

Striking the balance: Challenges and perspectives for the protected areas network in northeastern European Russia

Increasing anthropogenic pressure on the largest remaining tracts of old-growth boreal forest in Europe necessitates additional conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity in northeastern European Russia. In a regional network comprising 8 % of the Nenets Autonomous District and 13.5 % of the Komi Republic, 248 areas have varying protected statuses as state nature reserves (zapovedniks), national parks, reserves/sanctuaries (zakazniks), or natural monuments. Due to increased natural resource extraction in this relatively pristine area, designation of additional protected areas is critical for the protection of key ecological sites. The history of ecological preservation in these regions is herein described, and recent recommendations for incorporating additional ecologically representative areas into the regional network are presented. If the protected area network can be expanded, the overall environmental stability in these globally significant ecosystems may remain intact, and can help Russia meet the 2020 Aichi conservation targets, as set forth by the Convention of Biological Diversity.     

浅谈再生资源服务中心助力两型社会建设

围绕武汉城市圈“两型社会”建设综合配套改革试验区的现代社会组织体制建立过程中的热点问题,阐述了现代社会组织暨再生资源服务中心的基本特征;强调了以民主促民生的制度建设的必要性：分析了现代社会组织助力“两型社会”建设的可行性;概述了以华中资源循环利用服务中心为例的创新型现代社会组织市场化运作公共服务项目的工作思路。     

城市居民交通方式选择及其影响因素分析——以南京市为例

随着我国城市化水平的提高,城市交通能源消费占总能源消费的比重逐渐增大,交通方式选择及其影响因素研究引起广泛关注。本研究通过调查南京居民出行交通方式,并通过多项logit模型(multinomial logit model),探究影响居民交通选择的关键因素,为城市交通政策的制定提供科学依据,并根据估算结果分析不同政策下交通方式改变带来的节能减排效应。结果显示:出行特性(如出行距离)、出行者的个人特征(如性别、年龄、职业)与出行者的家庭特征(如是否有私家车,是否有小孩)都对交通方式选择有显著影响。如果通过有效的交通政策引导,使私家车出行转变为轨道交通出行,南京每天大约可减少1573.5吨碳排放。     

Effects of economic growth on biodiversity in the United States

For many citizens and policymakers, the empirical relationship between economic growth and biodiversity conservation has not been sufficiently established for purposes of identifying the types of economic policies amenable to biodiversity conservation. Some think economic growth conflicts with biodiversity conservation; others think economic growth conduces biodiversity conservation. With panel data from 1997‐2011, encompassing US continental states, we developed a series of statistical models to investigate the relationships among species endangerment, human population, and economic growth as indicated by GDP and per capita GDP. Species endangerment is highly correlated with population and GDP, and per capita GDP is a significant regressor of species endangerment. Across US continental states, competitive exclusion of non‐human species occurs via human economic growth and population growth.     

Linking Climate Trends to Population Dynamics in the Baltic Ringed Seal: Impacts of Historical and Future Winter Temperatures

A global trend of a warming climate may seriously affect species dependent on sea ice. We investigated the impact of climate on the Baltic ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica), using historical and future climatological time series. Availability of suitable breeding ice is known to affect pup survival. We used detailed information on how winter temperatures affect the extent of breeding ice and a climatological model (RCA3) to project the expected effects on the Baltic ringed seal population. The population comprises of three sub-populations, and our simulations suggest that all of them will experience severely hampered growth rates during the coming 90 years. The projected 30 730 seals at the end of the twenty-first century constitutes only 16 % of the historical population size, and thus reduced ice cover alone will severely limit their growth rate. This adds burden to a species already haunted by other anthropogenic impacts.     

城市总体规划环评指标体系的建立及其应用

本研究首先介绍了DPSIR模型构建的原理,接着以合肥市为对象,从驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应5个方面来构建的共36个指标,并采用层次分析法对指标权重的确定和多级灰色关联分析对指标进行综合评价,得出评价结果。合肥市在2004~2005年处于较低可持续发展水平(0.3398、0.3876)、在2010年处于中等可持续发展水平(0.5369)、在2015年处于较高可持续发展水平(0.6016)、在2020年处于较高可持续发展水平(0.7847),该预测评价结果与合肥市城市可持续发展趋势相符。最后采用改进熵值法验证多级灰色关联综合分析结论,计算得出的结果表明,该两种方法评价结论基本相同。因此,本研究对城市总体规划环境影响评价的评价方法的建立与完善,有着较强的实践意义和参考价值。