我国生物多样性保护体制及其改进建议

在对我国生物多样性保护的政策和体制进行详细阐述的基础上分析其中存在的主要问题,提出改进建议.首先分析了生物多样性保护的实质,认为所谓生物多样性保护就是通过有意识地限制和调节人类活动对生物的干扰破坏,使地球上的生物多样性得以保持和恢复.因此,在本质上,生物多样性保护就是要协调人与自然之间业已失衡的关系,其目标在于实现人与自然之间的和谐和可持续发展.其后,讨论了我国生物多样性保护面临的主要挑战,指出巨大的人口压力和剧烈的人类活动是造成生物多样性破坏的主要原因.特别针对保护体制中的多部门管理和协调机制、中央和地方政府的责任和义务、保护区设立和管理以及国际合作等方面进行了分析,指出了在多头管理的体制下,各部门职责、权利和资源分配不明确、不匹配,保护区管理中重减轻管、事企合一等问题.最后,提出了相应的政策建议.     

黄河中游水保措施对入黄干支流泥沙特性的影响:Ⅰ. 泥沙粒径变化

过去关于水土保持措施影响的研究多侧重于减水减沙的影响,对泥沙组成影响的研究则相对较少。本文以大量的实测资料为依据,以河口至龙门间区域自然与水土保持条件为背景,将水保措施类型、河道水流泥沙条件与流域地貌条件结合考虑,借助统计分析方法对采用水保措施前后该区域（尤其是与黄河中游水土流失密切相关的黄土高原与沙砾丘陵区域）的泥沙粒径分布变化进行了探讨。分析表明,泥沙粒径分布变化极其复杂,对应于不同地貌类型条件的泥沙组成遵循不同的分布规律。黄土丘陵区河流中的悬移质泥沙级配服从正态分布规律,而沙砾丘陵区河流中的泥沙级配则服从皮Ⅲ型分布规律。当分布函数的类型确定后,泥沙粒径分布由该分布函数的几个参数共同决定,这些参数分别反映了泥沙从流域表层搬运到对应级别河流的过程中地貌形态及水土保持措施的影响。文中由多学科综合研究得到的结论,对黄河中游水土保持效益研究具有重要意义。     

Towards sustainable consumption: Predicting the impact of social‐psychological factors on energy conservation intentions in Northern Cyprus

The incessant demand and consumption of energy services among individuals’ is increasing throughout the world. Individuals’ electricity consumption in Northern Cyprus has risen considerably. However, the demand for electrical energy services on the island is heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels. Burning fossil fuels has adverse effects on its environment. Therefore, sustainable energy consumption is required and individuals are targeted for energy conservation to reduce electricity consumption. Against this background, using the Structural Equation Modeling approach, this research incorporates social‐psychological factors; personal norms, positive and negative emotions into the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) model to assess the relationships among the variables, explain their impact on consumers’ electricity conservation intentions and enhance the explanatory power of the model. Data was conveniently obtained from a quantitative sample of 400 electricity consumers. The results indicate that negative emotions have the strongest significant influence on intentions, but personal norms have the least effect on intentions to save electricity. Furthermore, the study revealed that our expanded TPB model can provide improved explanatory power more than the original TPB. Policy implications, limitations and future research are discussed.     

Public Perceptions of California's Exceptional Drought

While the exceptional drought in California ended in 2017, the state is expected to experience similar droughts in the future. Understanding how individuals perceive the causes and consequences of drought will help frame future communication and planning efforts. We surveyed a panel of Californian residents about their perceptions of the 2012–2017 drought. We found a major disconnect in how our respondents perceived drought and water use. Respondents perceived the drought as being caused primarily by climatic factors and underestimated the role human water use, particularly agricultural use, had in exacerbating drought. Comparing our respondents across the state and across socio‐demographics, there were few differences in concern about drought but several differences in how residents thought drought should be managed. Such research can help water managers communicate about the specific concerns the public has about future droughts, as well as address misperceptions about the relationship between drought and water use.     

北京市生态涵养区生态服务价值评估与生态补偿机制探讨

在分析北京市生态涵养区在生态补偿制度建设困境的基础上,本文将国内外区域生态系统价值评估模型相结合,运用修正的生态服务价值评估模型,对北京市生态涵养区2016年的生态服务价值进行了估算,并分析了2009-2016年生态服务价值的变动及其影响因素,从科学评估生态服务价值、完善生态补偿标准方法的制定、健全生态保护补偿制度、将绿色GDP纳入生态涵养区绩效考核指标评价体系几个方面探讨了完善生态补偿机制的政策措施。一方面更加直观地揭示了生态涵养区生态服务的重要经济价值,另一方面为建立更加科学的生态补偿机制提供了可参考的依据。     

甘肃白龙江流域水源涵养服务时空格局及其影响因素

白龙江流域是长江上游的主要生态屏障和水源涵养区,对维系流域生态和可持续发展至关重要。以甘肃白龙江流域为例,基于参数本地化的InVEST模型对1990—2016年水源涵养时空变化及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:流域多年平均水源涵养深度为47.50 mm,呈现先减少后回升的趋势。空间上,其高值区主要集中于迭部、文县和舟曲的中高山阴陡坡林区（平均涵养深度在该三县2500~3500 m海拔段、阴坡和半阴坡、25°以上坡段和林地高于流域的平均涵养深度）;低值区主要位于宕昌和武都的中低山阳缓坡农牧区（平均涵养深度在该两县 2500 m以下海拔段、阳坡和半阳坡、25°以下坡段和耕、草地低于流域的平均涵养深度）。气候背景下,人类活动驱动的土地利用/覆被格局空间差异是影响水源涵养时空变化的重要因素,退耕还林对减缓气候变暖背景下水源涵养深度的下降具有重要意义。     

基于生态供受体理论的全国水土保持重要区识别

科学评估土壤保持功能是生态保护红线划定的基础.依据生态供受体理论,针对土壤保持服务对应的水土流失这一生态问题,从水土流失的供体（水土流失量）、受体（人口密度）、辐射传输（距离水体距离）三个方面构建模型,分析土壤保持功能的重要性.结果表明全国潜在侵蚀量577.34×10¹⁰t/a,潜在土壤侵蚀随着坡度和降水量的增加而增加.土壤保持功能极重要区面积98.98×10⁴km²,主要分布在西南地区的无量山和哀牢山,黄土高原东部,东南地区的浙闽丘陵,东部地区的鲁中山区、鲁东半岛,以及辽东半岛.西南地区山高、谷深、坡陡、流急、地形稳定性差等因素造成水土流失严重,维持该地区的水土保持功能极为重要;西北地区的黄土高原土质疏松且多暴雨导致水土流失比较严重,维持该地区土壤保持功能非常重要.对比常用的生态保护功能模型,供受体理论模型除考虑自然影响因素之外,突出了人类活动的因素,对评估生态保护功能与水土保持生态风险更客观.依据供受体理论构建的土壤保持模型适用于土壤保持功能和土壤潜在侵蚀风险的评估,可作为评估生态系统安全和划定生态保护红线的重要依据.     

基于ABMS的矿山监管Agent工作倦怠现象的仿真研究

基于Agent的仿真建模方法（Agent based modeling and simulation,ABMS）和资源保存理论(conservation of resource theory,COR),构建了多Agent仿真模型,通过确定监管Agent、决策支持Agent、职能配合Agent和矿工Agent及其属性,借助Netlogo仿真平台模拟决策支持力度、职能配合程度以及矿工行为选择对监管Agent工作倦怠的影响,可以输出情感耗竭、人格解体和个人成就3个维度下监管Agent的数量。研究表明:决策支持系数Sc对监管Agent工作倦怠现象影响最大、处理有效性系数Ec影响次之、职能配合系数Fc影响最小,多Agent仿真模型促进了矿山监管Agnet工作倦怠现象的量化分析研究,为矿山安全治理提供了有效的决策依据。     

Past and Present Effectiveness of Protected Areas for Conservation of Naturally and Anthropogenically Rare Plant Species

Abstract:  The Global Strategy of Plant Conservation states that at least 60% of threatened plant species should be within protected areas. This goal has been met in some regions with long traditions of plant protection. We used gap analysis to explore how particular groups of species of conservation interest, representing different types of natural or anthropogenic rarity, have been covered by protected areas on a national scale in Estonia during the last 100 years. Species-accumulation curves indicated that plant species that are naturally rare (restricted global or local distribution, always small populations, or very rare habitat requirements) needed almost twice as many protected areas to reach the 60% target as plant species that are rare owing to lack of suitable management (species depending on grassland management, moderate forest disturbances, extensive traditional agriculture, or species potentially threatened by collecting). Temporal analysis of the establishment of protected areas suggested that grouping plant species according to the predominant cause of rarity accurately reflected the history of conservation decision making. Species found in very rare habitats have previously received special conservation attention; species dependent on traditional extensive agriculture have been largely ignored until recently. Legislative initiative and new nature-protection schemes (e.g., Natura 2000, network of protected areas in the European Union) have had a positive influence on all species groups. Consequently, the species groups needing similar action for their conservation are sensitive indicators of the effectiveness of protected-area networks. Different species groups, however, may not be uniformly conserved within protected areas, and all species groups should fulfill the target of 60% coverage within protected areas.     

Latent Extinction and Invasion Risk of Crayfishes in the Southeastern United States

Abstract: Crayfishes are both a highly imperiled invertebrate group as well as one that has produced many invasive species, which have negatively affected freshwater ecosystems throughout the world. We performed a trait analysis for 77 crayfishes from the southeastern United States in an attempt to understand which biological and ecological traits make these species prone to imperilment or invasion, and to predict which species may face extinction or become invasive in the future. We evaluated biological and ecological traits with principal coordinate analysis and classification trees. Invasive and imperiled crayfishes occupied different positions in multivariate trait space, although crayfishes invasive at different scales (extraregional vs. extralimital) were also distinct. Extraregional crayfishes (large, high fecundity, habitat generalists) were most distinct from imperiled crayfishes (small, low fecundity, habitat specialists), thus supporting the “two sides of the same coin” hypothesis. Correct classification rates for assignment of crayfishes as invasive or imperiled were high (70–80%), even when excluding the highly predictive but potentially confounding trait of range size (75–90%). We identified a number of species that, although not currently listed as imperiled or found outside their native range, possess many of the life‐history and ecological traits characteristic of currently invasive or imperiled taxa. Such species exhibit a high latent risk of extinction or invasion and consequently should be the focus of proactive conservation or management strategies. Our results illustrate the utility of trait‐based approaches for taxonomic groups such as invertebrates, for which detailed species‐specific data are rare and conservation resources are chronically limited.