A new method for broad-scale modeling and projection of plant assemblages under climatic,biotic, and environmental cofiltering

There is increasing interestin broad-scale analysis, modeling, and prediction of the distribution and composition of plant species assemblages under climatic, environmental, and biotic change, particularly for conservation purposes. We devised a method to reliably predict the impact of climate change on large assemblages of plant communities, while also considering competing biotic and environmental factors. To this purpose, we first used multilabel algorithms in order to convert the task of explaining a large assemblage of plant communities into a classification framework able to capture with high cross-validated accuracy the pattern of species distributions under a composite set of biotic and abiotic factors. We applied our model to a large set of plant communities in the Swiss Alps. Our model explained presences and absences of 175 plant species in 608 plots with >87% cross-validated accuracy, predicted decreases in α, β, and γ diversity by 2040 under both moderate and extreme climate scenarios, and identified likely advantaged and disadvantaged plant species under climate change. Multilabel variable selection revealed the overriding importance of topography, soils, and temperature extremes (rather than averages) in determining the distribution of plant species in the study area and their response to climate change. Our method addressed a number of challenging research problems, such as scaling to large numbers of species, considering species relationships and rarity, and addressing an overwhelming proportion of absences in presence–absence matrices. By handling hundreds to thousands of plants and plots simultaneously over large areas, our method can inform broad-scale conservation of plant species under climate change because it allows species that require urgent conservation action (assisted migration, seed conservation, and ex situ conservation) to be detected and prioritized. Our method also increases the practicality of assisted colonization of plant species by helping to prevent ill-advised introduction of plant species with limited future survival probability.     

Water and the politics of sustainability transitions: from regime actor conflicts to system governance organizations

This study contributes to the analysis of the politics of sustainability transitions by developing a focus on regime actor conflicts and a processual model for how these conflicts develop and are resolved. In a comparison of water-supply systems in four U.S. cities, we show how conflicts among regime actors and political jurisdictions lead to the formation of system governance organizations (SGOs) that bridge jurisdictional boundaries to manage conflicts over a technological system (TS). SGOs coordinate relations among water utilities and diverse stakeholders to reduce pervasive conflicts, but they can also serve as drivers of improved sustainability. We analyze resistance that can emerge, such as from urban growth coalitions, which limit the capacity of SGOs to drive changes. We develop a four-stage processual model (first-order regime conflicts, SGO formation, sustainability transition expansion, and second-order regime conflicts) that opens research in the politics of transitions to the dynamic of regime actor conflicts and provides the basis for generalizations about the causes of SGO formation and their effects on the governance of TSs such as water-supply infrastructure. Policy implications regarding how to improve political support for SGO sustainability efforts are also discussed.     

中国水土流失及其对旱涝灾害的影响

人口膨胀对土地的压力增长，导致水土流失面积扩大，土壤侵蚀量增多，目前我国水蚀面积已达１７９万平方公里，每年流失土壤５０亿吨。水土流失减薄土层，阻碍植被恢复，大大降低土地的蓄水库容，造成水文干旱和农业干旱；同时，河床淤积使河流泄洪能力降低，洪水水位抬高，加剧洪涝灾害的发展，在同样降雨情况下，洪涝灾情比以往增加１倍。对水土流失采取综合治理可有效地减轻水旱灾害。江西兴国通过十年的综合治理，使兴国县水旱灾害频率下降４８．８％，成灾面积减少５０．７％。     

两种不同生态区坡改梯对土壤氮磷含量影响的研究

分别在干热河谷生态区和华西雨屏生态区的坡改梯地区设置试验小区和对照试验区,通过采集土壤样品进行室内分析,研究在不同的坡位、不同的季节变化下两种生态区实施坡改梯措施对土壤养分保持的效果.干热河谷生态区以清溪小流域为例,华西雨屏生态区以凤鸣小流域为例.试验结果表明,在两个生态区的坡改梯工程试验区,空间上,各个坡位氮磷养分的...     

东北林草交错区土壤侵蚀敏感性评价及关键因子识别

土壤侵蚀是造成东北林草交错区生态脆弱的重要原因。论文应用GIS技术,综合降水、地形、土壤可蚀性、植被覆盖等因子,分析和评价了1990—2005年研究区土壤侵蚀敏感性时空变化过程,并通过叠加排序方法定量识别关键因子。结果表明:研究区以中度敏感为主,其次是轻度和高度敏感;中度敏感地区以大兴安岭山地为主,轻度敏感地区分布在东、西部平原地区,高度敏感地区主要分布在燕山山地和大兴安岭南部山地的林草交错区;从时间变化过程看,轻度、中度敏感地区面积增加,高度敏感地区面积减少,生态环境状况总体好转;地形起伏度和植被覆盖作为研究区土壤侵蚀关键因子,起主导作用。     

Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Practice for Edible Wild Plants: Biodiversity Use by the Rarámuri,in the Sirerra Tarahumara,Mexico

The Rarámuri who live in the Sierra Tarahumara of Chihuahua State, Mexico have developed local knowledge and harvesting strategies for edible wild plants that have the effect of conserving the biodiversity of their forest ecosystem. This paper presents the results of ethnobotanical research undertaken in the community of Basìhuare in the Sierra Tarahumara, to provide details on some practical aspects of the Raráamuri worldview regarding interconnections between people and their environment. This traditional philosophy forms the basis for the use of edible wild plants and the harvesting strategies practiced in Basìhuare, such as selective harvesting, environmental modification and domestication. These activities provide the opportunity for harvesters to monitor the landscape and the plant resources that occur on the land, as well as present a setting for the communication and exchange of traditional ecological knowledge. However, Rarámuri harvesting practices are under stress because of increased external pressures from commercial timber extraction and other development. We discuss the state of traditional ecological knowledge and its transmission in the context of development activities in the region. The key to sustainability in the Sierra Tarahumara may be the maintenance of traditional management practices for edible wild plants, and other nontimber forest products, that lead to the conservation of biodiversity by creating patchiness and renewing the plant cover on the land.     

Natural resource management in national parks: a management assessment of a Natura 2000 wetlands site in Kotychi-Strofylia,southern Greece

In Europe, the establishment of the Natura 2000 network is one of the main actions that has been undertaken to contribute to the maintenance of biodiversity. However, the management system of sites included in the network is under question. The aim of this study was to assess the natural resource management applied to the National Park of the wetlands Kotychi-Strofylia, southern Greece, an important site belonging to the European ecological network Natura 2000, and the Ramsar convention. The methodological approach applied follows the general framework of International Unit for Nature Conservation/World Committee for Protected Areas (IUCN/WCPA) for the evaluation of protected areas, and it was based on field monitoring data with a view of providing information in achieving the stated management objectives. Two levels of indicators were used: the first concerned the evaluation of the management process and the second the evaluation of the management outputs and outcomes. The assessment of the natural resources management in the National Park showed that the management of the area is oriented towards biodiversity conservation and lies within the scope of the habitat directive and the ecological network Natura 2000. The framework applied and the methodological approach followed in this study appear to provide a useful basis for designing and conducting management evaluation. The indicators used at local scale can be integrated at regional- and national-scale projects of management evaluation, and, at the same time, the evaluation results can help local managers to improve management by taking the appropriate management measures. The analytical hierarchical conceptual flow suggested seems to be considered as an essential tool for evaluating natural resource management.     

Determining the tourism potential of the Altındere Valley National Park (Trabzon/Turkey) with respect to its conservation value

This study was conducted to determine the tourism potential of Alt?ndere Valley National Park with respect to its conservation and utilization. With its natural values, Alt?ndere Valley National Park is one of the internationally prominent areas of potential for the recreational and touristic facilities it offers.

A mathematical method – criterion referenced method – was applied within this study, which was done to portray the touristic potential (resulting from the touristic and recreational utilization of the national park area and recreational zone) of the national park, which was visited by an average of 200,000 local and foreign guests.

According to this method, the conservation and utilization values that appear on two opposite axes were examined in accordance with the natural resource values of the area, and conservation and utilization values for each criterion were determined. Depending on the data, the general exploitable touristic potential of the area was specified.

A survey study was conducted on groups from various disciplines and local & foreign tourists visiting the area in specifying the touristic potential of the National Park. Eleven criteria were defined concerning the area and a criterion reference was prepared for each criterion. Then, conservation and utilization values for each criterion and exploitable touristic potential were mathematically indicated. The fact that the attained values were reduced to a percentage basis provides the opportunity to compare the researched area to similar fields that use the same method. Within the scope of the method, several suggestions were made using the information obtained in the evaluation of the data for every other source value.     

Analysis of management effectiveness of natural reserves in Yunnan Province,China

Yunnan Province has many and unique natural resources and rich biodiversity. Natural reserves (NRs) play a significant role in maintaining and protecting the biodiversity and stability of ecosystems in this area. Yunnan is a typically eco-environmentally fragile area; thus positive effects of NRs are important in the construction of an ecological safety barrier for southwest China. Evaluation of the effectiveness of management of NRs has been implemented to improve management outcomes. This study provides indices to evaluate problems and management effectiveness for 60 NRs, covering national and provincial NRs of Yunnan Province. These indicate that management of NRs suffers from inadequate funding, poor infrastructure and equipment, low community participation, and a lack of government support. The indices had relatively low scores for infrastructure and equipment, ecotourism, monitoring, and evaluation, but high scores for planning and design and ownership. There were significant positive correlations between protection rank, size, age of NRs, and management effectiveness. International exchanges and collaboration would help to improve management of the NRs. NRs that straddle administrative boundaries had relatively higher scores than those within an administrative unit. Management success was not correlated with staff input, which might imply low efficiency of staff in this area. Some recommendations are offered to improve management of NRs based on analysis of management problems and identification of influencing factors.     

Pastoralism,nature conservation and ecological sustainability in Western Australia's southern shrubland rangelands

Two major issues are discussed in this paper. The first is the commitment of Federal and State Governments to the maintenance of biodiversity and nature conservation through their endorsement of conservation strategies. Based on a rangeland biophysical resource inventory survey (Pringle et al., 1994) it is contended that existing nature conservation reserves are not representative of the biological diversity in the region. In 1990, less than 1% of the survey area was under nature reservation. Whilst 13 of 17 land types are present in reserves, most of the reserves consist of land types least suitable for pastoralism (but not necessarily lacking conservation value). The land types most subject to preferential grazing and most threatened from a nature conservation perspective are poorly (three types) or not (four types) represented, and certainly not replicated, in nature reserves of the survey area, which exceeds 100 000 km2. Of the 23 priority plant species for nature conservation occurring in the survey area, 21 are not known to occur in nature reserves. Nature conservation in the area needs to improve because of the unrepresentativeness of the existing nature reserves and the absence of numerous priority plant species for nature conservation from these areas. We should recognize that reservation is but one nature conservation strategy. Viewed as a land tenure issue, this paper presents a case for a more representative nature reserve system, and substantial changes in outlook towards off-reserve nature conservation. First, an integrated appraisal of findings from rangeland and biological surveys is required. Together they provide a strong foundation for nature conservation planning, from which a more representative nature reserve system can be planned. Given that off-reserve nature conservation values are still likely to be substantial, partly as a result of compromise with existing land uses, new approaches to land management, sensitive to these values, may be required.The second major issue concerns the success of maintaining regional biological diversity in the arid shrubland rangelands of Western Australia, which will be strongly influenced by the use of the semi-natural matrix of lands under pastoral management. In six suggested opportunities, this paper addresses how this use may be achieved. Central to the ideas is a regional approach in which all stakeholders can contribute to, and have ownership of, regional environmental management plans. This paper emphasizes the role that conservative pastoral management might be able to play and some approaches to encourage more widespread participation of pastoralists in nature conservation management.