规划环境影响评价中生境评价的应用

本文即围绕规划环境影响评价工作当中,有关生境评价的几点问题展开详细分析与探讨,望能够促进生境评价在实际工作的应用质量与水平。     

热污染对陡河水库鱼类及其水环境的影响

研究表明,热污染对水环境影响主要表现在水温的频繁变化、水平和纵向上温差明显以及改变水生物的群落结构.寄生虫感染率增加,冷热冲击对胚胎发育的危害和浮游生物群落变化形成的饵料基础是影响鱼类数量和生长的重要因素,鱼类在群落中的生态位特点则决定着对各种变化的反应结果.     

Application of the target fish community model to an urban river system

Several models have been developed to assess the biological integrity of aquatic systems using fish community data. One of these, the target fish community (TFC) model, has been used primarily to assess the biological integrity of larger, mainstem rivers in southern New England with basins characterized by dispersed human activities. We tested the efficacy of the TFC approach to specify the fish community in the highly urbanized Charles River watershed in eastern Massachusetts. To create a TFC for the Charles River we assembled a list of fish species that historically inhabited the Charles River watershed, identified geomorphically and zoogeographically similar reference rivers regarded as being in high quality condition, amassed fish survey data for the reference rivers, and extracted from the collections the information needed to define a TFC. We used a similarity measurement method to assess the extent to which the study river community complies with the TFC and an inference approach to summarize the manner in which the existing fish community differed from target conditions. The five most abundant species in the TFC were common shiners (34%), fallfish (17%) redbreast sunfish (11%), white suckers (8%), and American eel (7%). Three of the five species predicted to be most abundant in the TFC were scarce or absent in the existing river community. Further, the river was dominated by macrohabitat generalists (99%) while the TFC was predicted to contain 19% fluvial specialist species, 43% fluvial dependent species, and 38% macrohabitat generalist species. In addition, while the target community was dominated by fish intolerant (37%) and moderately tolerant (39%) of water quality degradation, the existing community was dominated by tolerant individuals (59%) and lacked intolerant species expected in the TFC. Similarity scores for species, habitat use specialization, and water quality degradation tolerance categories were 28%, 35% and 66%, respectively. The clear pattern of deviations from target conditions when observing fish habitat requirements strongly suggests that physical habitat change should be a priority for river enhancement in the Charles River. Comparison of our target and existing fish communities to those from a comprehensive study of Northeastern fish assemblage responses to urban intensity gradients revealed very similar results. Likewise, comparison of our TFC community and affinity scores to those of other TFCs from similar regions also yielded similar results and encouraging findings. Based on the positive results of these comparisons, the utility of the findings from the inference approach, and the widespread adoption of the TFC in the Northeast US, it appears that the TFC approach can be used effectively to identify the composition of a healthy fish community and guide river enhancements in both highly urbanized and non-urbanized streams and rivers in the Northeast US.     

An analytical platform for cumulative impact assessment based on multiple futures: the impact of petroleum drilling and forest harvesting on moose (Alces alces) and marten (Martes americana) habitats in northeastern British Columbia

The combined influence on the environment of all projects occurring in a single area is evaluated through cumulative impact assessments (CIA), which consider the consequences of multiple projects, each insignificant on its own, yet important when evaluated collectively. Traditionally, future human activities are included in CIA using an analytical platform, commonly based on complex models that supply precise predictions but with reduced accuracy. To compensate for the lack of accuracy in current CIA approaches, we propose a shift in the paradigm governing CIA. The paradigm shift involves a change in the focus of CIA investigations from the detailed analysis of one unlikely future to the identification of the patterns describing multiple potential future changes in the environment. To illustrate the approach, a set of 144 possible and equally likely futures were developed that aimed to identify the potential impacts of forest harvesting and petroleum drilling on the habitat suitability of moose and marten in northeast British Columbia, Canada. The evolution of two measures of habitat suitability (average habitat suitability index and surface of the stands with habitat suitability index >0.5) revealed that the human activities could induce cycles in the habitat dynamics of moose and marten. The planning period of 100 years was separated into three distinct periods following a sinusoidal pattern (i.e., increase - constant - decrease in the habitat suitability measures). The attributes that could induce significant changes in the assessment of environment are the choice of harvesting age and species.     

What does ecological modelling model? A proposed classification of ecological niche models based on their underlying methods

Species distribution model is the term most frequently used in ecological modelling, but other authors used instead predictive habitat distribution model or species-habitat models. A consensual ecological modelling terminology that avoids misunderstandings and takes into account the ecological niche theory does not exist at present. Moreover, different studies differ in the type of niche that is represented by similar distribution models. I propose to use as standard ecological modelling terminology the terms “ecological niche”, “potential niche”, “realized niche” models (for modelling their respective niches), and “habitat suitability map” (for the output of the niche models). Therefore, the user can understand more easily that models always forecast species’ niche and relate more closely the different types of niche models.     

Refining logistic regression models for wildlife habitat suitability modeling—A case study with muntjak and goral in the Central Himalayas, India

High quality habitat suitability maps are indispensable for the management and planning of wildlife reserves. This is particularly important for megadiverse developing countries where shortages in skilled manpower and funding may preclude the use of mathematically complex modeling techniques and resource-intensive field surveys. In this study, we propose a simulation based k-fold partitioning and re-substitution approach to refine and update logistic regression models that are widely used for habitat suitability assessment and modeling. We test the modeling strategy using data from a rapid field survey conducted for habitat suitability assessment for muntjak (Muntiacus muntjak) and goral (Naemorrhaedus goral) in the central Himalayas, India. Results obtained from simulations match expectations in terms of model behavior and in terms of published habitat associations of the investigated species. Qualitative comparisons with predictions from the GARP, MaxEnt and Bioclimatic Envelopes modeling systems also show broad agreement with predictions obtained from the proposed technique. The proposed technique is suggested as a rapid-assessment precursor to detailed habitat studies such as patch occupancy modeling in situations where funds or trained manpower are not available.     

Species distribution modelling—Effect of design and sample size of pseudo-absence observations

We explored the effect of varying pseudo-absence data in species distribution modelling using empirical data for four real species and simulated data for two imaginary species. In all analyses we used a fixed study area, a fixed set of environmental predictors and a fixed set of presence observations. Next, we added pseudo-absence data generated by different sampling designs and in different numbers to assess their relative importance for the output from the species distribution model. The sampling design strongly influenced the predictive performance of the models while the number of pseudo-absences had minimal effect on the predictive performance. We attribute much of these results to the relationship between the environmental range of the pseudo-absences (i.e. the extent of the environmental space being considered) and the environmental range of the presence observations (i.e. under which environmental conditions the species occurs). The number of generated pseudo-absences had a direct effect on the predicted probability, which translated to different distribution areas. Pseudo-absence observations that fell within grid cells with presence observations were purposely included in our analyses. We discourage the practice of excluding certain pseudo-absence data because it involves arbitrary assumptions about what are (un)suitable environments for the species being modelled.     

Population viability of the Siberian Tiger in a changing landscape: Going, going and gone?

The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is a flagship species of the boreal forest ecosystem in northeastern China and Russia Far East. During the past century, the tiger population has declined sharply from more than 3000 to fewer than 600 individuals, and its habitat has become much smaller and greatly fragmented. Poaching, habitat degradation, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation have been widely recognized as the primary causes for the observed population decline. Using a population viability analysis tool (RAMAS/GIS), we simulated the effects of poaching, habitat degradation, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation on the population dynamics and extinction risk of the Amur tiger, and then explored the relative effectiveness of three conservation strategies involving improving habitat quality and establishing movement corridors in China and Russia. A series of controlled simulation experiments were performed based on the current spatial distribution of habitat and field-observed vital rates. Our results showed that the Amur tiger population could be viable for the next 100 years if the current habitat area and quality were well-maintained, with poaching strictly prohibited of the tigers and their main prey species. Poaching and habitat degradation (mainly prey scarcity) had the largest negative impacts on the tiger population persistence. While the effect of habitat loss was also substantial, habitat fragmentation per se had less influence on the long-term fate of the tiger population. However, to sustain the subpopulations in both Russia and China would take much greater conservation efforts. The viability of the Chinese population of tigers would rely heavily on its connectivity with the largest patch on the other side of the border. Improving the habitat quality of small patches only or increasing habitat connectivity through movement corridors alone would not be enough to guarantee the long-term population persistence of the Amur tiger in both Russia and China. The only conservation strategy that allowed for long-term persistence of tigers in both countries required both the improvement of habitat quality and the establishment of a transnational reserve network. Our study provides new insights into the metapopulation dynamics and persistence of the Amur tiger, which should be useful in landscape and conservation planning for protecting the biggest cat species in the world.