Mitigation of CO2 Emissions from the EU-15 Building Stock. Beyond the EU Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (9 pp)

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Goal Scope and Background. The European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings which came into force 16 December 2002 will be implemented in the legislation of Member States by 4 January 2006. In addition to the aim of improving the overall energy efficiency of new buildings, large existing buildings will become a target for improvement, as soon as they undergo significant renovation. The building sector is responsible for about 40% of Europe's total end energy consumption and hence this Directive is an important step for the European Union in order that it should reach the level of saving required by the Kyoto Agreement. In this the EU is committed to reduce CO2 emissions relative to the base year of 1990 by 8 per cent, by 2010. But what will be the impact of the new Directive, how large could be the impacts of extending the obligation for energy efficiency retrofitting towards smaller buildings? Can improvement of the insulation offset or reduce the growing energy consumption from the increasing installation of cooling installations? EURIMA, the European Insulation Manufacturers Association and EuroACE, the European Alliance of Companies for Energy Efficiency in Buildings, asked Ecofys to address these questions.

Methods

The effect of the EPB Directive on the emissions associated with the heating energy consumption of the total EU 15 building stock has been examined in a model calculation, using the Built Environment Analysis Model (BEAM), which was developed by Ecofys to investigate energy saving measures in the building stock. The great complexity of the EU-15 building stock had to be simplified by examining five standard buildings with eight insulation standards, which are assigned to building age and renovation status. Furthermore, three climatic regions (cold, moderate, warm) were distinguished for the calculation of the heating energy demand. This gave a basic 210 building types for which the heating energy demand and CO2 emissions from heating were calculated according to the principles of the European Norm EN 832.

Results and Discussion

The model calculations demonstrates that the main contributor to the total heating related CO2 emissions of 725 Mt/a from the EU building stock in 2002 is the residential sector (77%) while the remaining 23% originates from non-residential buildings. In the residential sector, single-family houses represent the largest group responsible for 60% of the total CO2 emissions equivalent to 435 Mt/a.

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- The technical potential: If all retrofit measures in the scope of the Directive were realised immediately for the complete residential and non-residential building stock the overall CO2 emission savings would add up to 82 Mt/a. An additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 69 Mt/a would be created if the scope of the Directive was extended to cover retrofit measures in multi-family dwellings (200-1000m2) and non-residential buildings smaller than 1000m2 used floor space. In addition including the large group of single-family dwellings would lead to a potential for additional CO2 emission reductions compared to the Directive of 316 Mt/a.

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- Temporal mobilization of the potential: Calculations based on the building stock as it develops over time with average retrofit rates demonstrated that regulations introduced following the EPB Directive result in a CO2 emissions decrease of 34 Mt/a by the year 2010 compared to the business as usual scenario. Extending the scope of the EPB Directive to all residential buildings (including single and multi-family dwellings), the CO2 emission savings potential over the 'business as usual' scenario could be doubled to 69 Mt/a in the year 2010. This creates an additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 36 Mt/a.

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- Cooling demand: The analysis demonstrated that in warm climatic zones the cooling demand can be reduced drastically by a combination of lowering the internal heat loads and by improved insulation. With the reduction of the heat loads to a moderate level the cooling demand, e.g. of a terraced house located in Madrid, can be reduced by an additional 85% if the insulation level is improved appropriately.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that the European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings will have a significant impact on the CO2 emissions of the European building stock. The main saving potential lies in insulation of the existing building stock. Beyond this, CO2 emissions could, however, be greatly reduced if the scope of the Directive were to be extended to include retrofit of smaller buildings.

Recommendation and Perspective

The reductions should be seen in relation to the remaining gap of 190 Mt CO2 eq. per annum between the current emission levels of EU-15 and the target under the Kyoto-Protocol for the year 2010. The energy and industrial sector will probably contribute only a fraction of this reduction via the newly established EU emissions trading scheme and connected projects under the flexible mechanism. In addition, the traffic sector is likely to continue its growth path leading to a widening of the gap. Thus, there is likely to be considerable pressure on the EU building sector to contribute to the EU climate targets beyond what will be achieved by means of the current EPB Directive. Legislators on the EU and national level are therefore advised to take accelerated actions to tap the very significant emission reduction potentials available in the EU building stock.     

Disproportionate costs in the EU Water Framework Directive—How to justify less stringent environmental objectives

The ambitious objective pursued by the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) is good status for all European waters. However, “less stringent environmental objectives” are permissible if the costs of achieving good status are disproportionately high. This exemption, if abused, carries the risk of watering down the ambitions of the Directive. Currently, no transparent, well-established, universally applicable method for routinely testing disproportionality exists throughout Europe. In this paper, such a method is developed for surface water bodies. The core idea is to determine a water body-specific disproportionality threshold which is then compared to the projected costs of achieving “good status/potential”. For the sake of practicability, the benchmark for disproportionality is estimated on the basis of prior expenditure on water quality enhancement. The paper argues that the proposed method combines both possible interpretations of (dis-)proportionality—affordability and cost-benefit considerations. Due to the method’s moderate data requirements it can be used readily in most German federal states and is transferable in principle to other EU Member States. The method was tested empirically for a river in the German federal state of Rhineland–Palatinate.     

Implementation of the European IPPC Directive—BAT guidelines for the cement industry in Cyprus

The European Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) Directive 96/61/EC aims to introduce a European-wide system of integrated prevention and control of pollution in order to secure a high level of protection to the environment as a whole. It places obligations on the Member States (MS) to introduce controls that ensure operators comply with the Directive. In this framework, as a part of the implementation process leading to formal accession of Cyprus to the European Union, the National Technical University of Athens has examined all documents related to the Best Available Techniques (BATs) published by Institutes and Organisations, such as the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies in Spain, the Environmental Protection Agency in Ireland, the World Bank Group and the Ministry for the Environment, Planning and Public Works in Greece. A series of guidelines were developed for the application of BATs for 14 categories of the Cypriot industry that fall into the IPPC Directive. The concept of BATs plays a central role in the Directive because it provides a basis for setting Emission Limit Values (ELVs) as well as the principal benchmark for determining the obligations of industrial operators in respect of pollution prevention and control. This paper presents the guidelines for cement manufacture in Cyprus.     

Trend analysis of machinery safety for globalization: From the Japanese point of view

In Japan, the work of translation to JIS faced many obstacles. Support groups in Western countries have submitted comments on technical problems. The movement to standard harmonization in safety has rapidly developed in international standardization. The movement for global standardization is developing throughout all the economic areas of the EU. The aim of the Machine Directive that comes into effect in stages is to provide an international formula for a type of qualification in machine safety. EN292 is a nucleus for related standards, which are like a group of planets in a universe. It is a European standard as well as a guideline for implementation, showing practical safety requirements for machines. Horizontal standards, such as EN954 and IEC61508, apply in actual practice.     

The European Water Framework Directive: Water Quality Classification and Implications to Engineering Planning

The European Water framework directive (WFD) is probably the most important environmental management directive that has been enacted over the last decade in the European Union. The directive aims at achieving an overall good ecological status in all European water bodies. In this article, we discuss the implementation steps of the WFD and their implications for environmental engineering practice while focusing on rivers as the main receiving waters. Arising challenges for engineers and scientists are seen in the quantitative assessment of water quality, where standardized systems are needed to estimate the biological status. This is equally of concern in engineering planning, where the prediction of ecological impacts is required. Studies dealing with both classification and prediction of the ecological water quality are reviewed. Further, the combined emission–water quality approach is discussed. Common understanding of this combined approach is to apply the most stringent of either water quality or emission standard to a certain case. In contrast, for example, the Austrian water act enables the application of only the water quality based approach - at least on a temporary basis.     

Effect-Directed Analysis of Key Toxicants in European River Basins. A Review (9 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Extensive monitoring programs on chemical contamination are run in many European river basins. With respect to the implementation of the European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD), these programs are increasingly accompanied by monitoring the ecological status of the river basins. Assuming an impact of chemical contamination on the ecological status, the assignment of effects in aquatic ecosystems to those stressors that cause the effects is a prerequisite for taking political or technical measures to achieve the goals of the WFD. Thus, one focus of present European research is on toxicant identification in European river basins in order to allow for a reduction of toxic pressure on aquatic ecosystems according to the WFD. Main Features: An overview is presented on studies that were performed to link chemical pollution in European river basins to measurable ecotoxic effects. This includes correlation-based approaches as well as investigations that apply effect-directed analysis (EDA) integrating toxicity testing, fractionation and non-target chemical analysis. Effect-based key toxicants that were identified in European surface waters are compiled and compared to EU priority pollutants. Further needs for research are identified. Results: Studies on the identification of effect-based key toxicants focused on mutagenicity, aryl hydrocarbon receptor-mediated effects, endocrine disruption, green algae, and invertebrates. The identified pollutants include priority pollutants and other well-known environmental pollutants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, furans, and biphenyls, nonylphenol, some pesticides and tributyltin, but also other compounds that were neither considered as environmental pollutants before nor regulated such as substituted phenols, natural or synthetic estrogens and androgens, dinaphthofurans, 2-(2-naphthalenyl)benzothiophene, and N-phenyl-2-naphthylamine. Discussion: Individual studies at specific sites in a European river basin demonstrated the power of combined biological and chemical analytical approaches and, particularly, of effect-directed analysis. However, the available information on effect-based key toxicants is very limited with respect to the entirety of rivers possibly at risk due to chemical contamination and with respect to toxicological endpoints considered at a specific site. A relatively broad basis of information exists only for estrogenicity and aryl hydrocarbon, receptor-mediated effects. Conclusions: The development of tools and strategies for an identification of key toxicants on a broader scale are a challenging task for the next years. Since investigations dealing with toxicant identification are too labor and cost-intensive for monitoring purposes, they have to be focused on the key sites in a river basin. These should include hot spots of contamination, particularly if there is evidence that they might pose a risk for downstream areas, but may also involve accumulation zones in the lower reach of a river in order to get an integrated picture on the contamination of the basin. Perspectives: While EDA is almost exclusively based on measurable effects in in vitro and in vivo biotests to date, an increasing focus in the future should be on the integration of EDA into Ecological Risk Assessment and on the development of tools to confirm EDA-determined key toxicants as stressors in populations, communities and ecosystems. Considering these requirements and applied in a focused way, toxicant identification may significantly help to implement the Water Framework Directive by providing evidence on the main stressors and possible mitigation measures in order to improve the ecological status of a river ecosystem.     

Mapping nitrate leaching to upper groundwater in the sandy regions of The Netherlands, using conceptual knowledge

The European Community asks its Member States to provide a comprehensive and coherent overview of their groundwater chemical status. It is stated that simple conceptual models are necessary to allow assessments of the risks of failing to meet quality objectives. In The Netherlands two monitoring networks (one for agriculture and one for nature) are operational, providing results which can be used for an overview. Two regression models, based upon simple conceptual models, link measured nitrate concentrations to data from remote sensing images of land use, national forest inventory, national cattle inventory, fertiliser use statistics, atmospheric N deposition, soil maps and weather monitoring. The models are used to draw a nitrate leaching map and to estimate the size of the area exceeding the EU limit value in the early 1990s. The 95% confidence interval for the fraction nature and agricultural areas where the EU limit value for nitrate (50 mg/l) was exceeded amounted to 0.77–0.85 while the lower 97.5% confidence limit for the fraction agricultural area where the EU limit value was exceeded amounted to 0.94. Although the two conceptual models can be regarded as simple, the use of the models to give an overview was experienced as complex.     

Survey of mercury,cadmium and lead content of household batteries

The objective of this work was to provide updated information on the development of the potential impact of heavy metal containing batteries on municipal waste and battery recycling processes following transposition of the new EU Batteries Directive 2006/66/EC. A representative sample of 146 different types of commercially available dry and button cells as well as lithium-ion accumulators for mobile phones were analysed for their mercury (Hg)-, cadmium (Cd)- and lead (Pb)-contents. The methods used for preparing the cells and analysing the heavy metals Hg, Cd, and Pb were either developed during a former study or newly developed. Several batteries contained higher mass fractions of mercury or cadmium than the EU limits. Only half of the batteries with mercury and/or lead fractions above the marking thresholds were labelled. Alkaline–manganese mono-cells and Li-ion accumulators, on average, contained the lowest heavy metal concentrations, while zinc–carbon batteries, on average, contained the highest levels.     

A multi-scale approach to modelling spatial and dynamic ecological patterns for reservoir's water quality management

With growing levels of urbanization and agriculture throughout the world, it is increasingly important that both research and management efforts take into account the effects of this widespread landscape alteration and its consequences for natural systems. Freshwater ecosystems, namely reservoirs, are particularly sensitive to land use changes. In this context, modelling can be very useful, for decision support, as an investigative tool to forecast the outcome of various scenarios, to guide current management in order to meet future targets and to develop integrated frameworks for management accordingly to the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The present paper examined the applicability of a holistic Stochastic-Dynamic Methodology (StDM), coupled with a Cellular Automata (CA) model, in capturing how expected changes at land use level will alter the ecological status of lentic ecosystems, namely at physicochemical and biological levels. The methodology was applied to Portuguese reservoirs located in the Douro's basin and illustrated with a series of stochastic-dynamic and spatial outputs taking into account expected scenarios regarding land use changes. Overall, the simulation results are encouraging since they seem to demonstrate the tool reliability in capturing the stochastic environmental dynamics of the selected metrics facing spatial explicit scenarios. The ultimate goal was to couple monitoring assessment and the described modelling techniques to ease management and decision making regarding the practical implementation of the WFD, both at the scale of the reservoir body and at the scale of the respective river watershed dynamics.     

Embedding the human factor in road tunnel risk analysis

The paper is focusing on road tunnel safety and builds upon the Directive 2004/54/EC launched by the European Commission; the latter sets basic requirements and suggests the implementation of risk assessment in several tunnel cases apart from technical measures imposed on the basis of tunnel structural and operational characteristics. Since the EU Directive does not indicate the method for performing risk assessment, a wide range of methods have been proposed, most of them based on quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Although the majority of current road tunnel QRAs assess physical aspects of the tunnel system and consider several hazards concerning the transportation of dangerous goods through a tunnel, they do not take into account, sufficiently, several organizational and human-related factors that can greatly affect the overall safety level of these critical infrastructures. To cope with this limitation this paper proposes a fuzzy logic system based on CREAM method for human reliability analysis (Hollnagel, 1998) in order to provide more sophisticated estimations of the tunnel operator's performance in safety critical situations. It is deduced that a human reliability analysis component to analyze operator performance, like the fuzzy system proposed here, is important for risk analysts. Consideration of organizational and human factors will enhance risk analysts’ studies and highlight the uncertainty related to human performance variability.