Development of a risk-based index for source water protection planning, which supports the reduction of pathogens from agricultural activity entering water resources

Source water protection planning (SWPP) is an approach to prevent contamination of ground and surface water in watersheds where these resources may be abstracted for drinking or used for recreation. For SWPP the hazards within a watershed that could contribute to water contamination are identified together with the pathways that link them to the water resource. In rural areas, farms are significant potential sources of pathogens. A risk-based index can be used to support the assessment of the potential for contamination following guidelines on safety and operational efficacy of processes and practices developed as beneficial approaches to agricultural land management. Evaluation of the health risk for a target population requires knowledge of the strength of the hazard with respect to the pathogen load (massxconcentration). Manure handling and on-site wastewater treatment systems form the most important hazards, and both can comprise confined and unconfined source elements. There is also a need to understand the modification of pathogen numbers (attenuation) together with characteristics of the established pathways (surface or subsurface), which allow the movement of the contaminant species from a source to a receptor (water source). Many practices for manure management have not been fully evaluated for their impact on pathogen survival and transport in the environment. A key component is the identification of potential pathways of contaminant transport. This requires the development of a suitable digital elevation model of the watershed for surface movement and information on local groundwater aquifer systems for subsurface flows. Both require detailed soils and geological information. The pathways to surface and groundwater resources can then be identified. Details of land management, farm management practices (including animal and manure management) and agronomic practices have to be obtained, possibly from questionnaires completed by each producer within the watershed. To confirm that potential pathways are active requires some microbial source tracking. One possibility is to identify the molecular types of Escherichia coli present in each hazard on a farm. An essential part of any such index is the identification of mitigation strategies and practices that can reduce the magnitude of the hazard or block open pathways.     

考虑人为因素的可靠性评估

统计数据表明,系统的可靠运行不可忽略人为误操作造成的故障,该故障发生率有时甚至超过设备本身导致的系统故障发生率。将人为因素与设备自身因素造成的系统故障进行对比,分析人为因素造成系统故障后的特点,可得出人为因素的可靠性参数。根据解析法和模拟法的相关理论计算考虑人为因素的可靠性指标,可以看出考虑人为因素的计算结果更加符合实际运行特点,便于相关人员采取对策,保障系统的安全运行。     

基于OSHMS的煤矿模糊综合安全评价管理模型的建立

针对目前我国煤矿企业安全管理现状,以一种全新的思路结合职业安全健康管理体系(OSHMS)的系统化体系结构及其先进之处,以预防为主,持续改进为动力,建立了基于生产过程的绩效测量、人员职责分配、运行控制和风险管理为核心的4个主要因素的安全评价管理模型;并以此为指导建立安全评价指标体系框架,运用模糊综合安全评价的方法对指标体系进行合成;最后,结合矿井生产过程中的供电系统,对淮南潘三矿现场进行实例应用,证明其可行性。该管理模型对煤矿企业安全管理有推广和借鉴意义,可望为煤矿企业通过安全管理实现科技兴安提供一种更可靠,更有效的安全管理方法。     

水安全及城市水安全研究进展与趋势

归纳和总结国内外水安全及城市水安全相关研究实践及其所用的评价指标体系,并对几种常用模型与方法的应用情况及其各自的特点进行分析,针对目前水安全及城市水安全研究中存在的主要问题,指出水安全及城市水安全进一步研究的方向:从自然、生态环境、社会经济、人文4个基本方向,以系统性、持续性、动态性和层次性4个特征为基础,分析水安全及城市水安全的概念与内涵;根据研究区域特征及其主要水安全问题建立评价指标体系;以研究者对各个模型的理解程度及驾驭能力为准则选用或改造现有模型与方法;针对加强城市应急水源地建设、突发性水安全事件应急预案、湿润地区水安全等问题开展研究。     

城市生态安全多层次灰色综合评价

从城市生态安全的基本内涵出发,根据压力(pressure)-状态(state)-响应(response)模型,从生态系统压力、生态系统状况、生态系统响应3方面构建一个4层次的城市生态安全评价指标体系,运用灰色系统理论,构建了城市生态安全多层次灰色综合评价模型,并结合实例进行计算。评价结果与实际情况基本相符,表明该模型能有效地利用评价指标的信息,所给出的综合评价值既能用于描述所评价城市的生态安全状况,亦可对不同城市的生态安全状况进行比较,对更加科学合理地评价城市生态安全状况具有参考价值。     

职业安全绩效指标研究

为了建立企业安全生产长效机制,提高安全管理水平,预防事故的发生,笔者在研究国内外企业安全绩效要素及分类方法的基础上,提出了包含10个一级要素及50个二级要素的企业安全绩效指标体系,并就指标的设立原则、定义、权重的确定和应用进行了阐述示例。同时,也为政府安全监管部门提供了科学决策的依据。     

建筑火灾风险评价体系的建立与应用探讨

探讨基于安全系统工程思想的建筑火灾风险评价指标体系的建立方法,并在该基础上,通过专家打分和层次分析法,计算得出各指标因子的权重值。根据有关标准和规范,对各评价指标因子进行等级划分,并设计出建筑火灾风险综合分值评分表,为厘定火灾保险费率提供依据。笔者的研究成果为完善建筑火灾风险评价方法、制定财产保险火灾风险评价标准等提供了科学依据。     

基于集对分析的尾矿库安全评价研究

为更好地对尾矿库的安全状况进行综合评价,针对尾矿库的特点建立了指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定各指标权重.将集对分析理论用于尾矿库的安全评价,并通过实例证明该理论适合于尾矿库的安全评价.集对分析中差异度I取1和-1.研究表明,当I=1时,指标体系中所有处于"一般安全"状态的指标项经过整改后能处于"安全"状态,此时联系度μ=0.736,尾矿库处于"安全"状态; 当I=-1时,指标体系中所有处于"一般安全"状态的指标项,在安全管理水平下降的情况下全部转为"不安全"状态,此时μ=0.114,尾矿库处于"不安全"状态.I的不同取值可反映尾矿库的具体安全状态,同时也反映尾矿库的安全管理水平,并充分体现了安全管理的重要性.研究为尾矿库的安全评价提供了一条新途径.     

Agricultural Chemicals in the Alluvial Aquifer of a Typical County of the Arkansas Delta

Statistical methods and a Geographic Information System (GIS) were used to investigate potential indicators of ground water vulnerability to agricultural chemical contamination in a representative area of the Mississippi River alluvial aquifer. A total of 47 wells were sampled for analysis of nitrate, phosphorus, potassium, and 13 pesticides commonly-used in the area. Ten soil and hydrogeologic variables and five ground water vulnerability indices were examined to explain the variations of chemical concentrations. The results showed that no individual soil or hydrogeologic variables or their linear combinations could explain more than 25% of the variation of the chemical concentrations. A quadratic response surface model with the values of confining unit thickness, slope, soil permeability, depth to ground water, and recharge rate accounted for 62% of the variation of nitrate, 43% of P, and 83% of K, suggesting that the interactions among soil and hydrogeologic variables were significant. Observed trends of decreasing nitrate and P concentrations with increasing well depth and/or depth to ground water seemed to correlate with carbonate equilibrium in the aquifer and more reduced environment with depth. In view of uncertainties involved, it was recognized that the limitations associated with input data resolution used in GIS and the formulation of leaching indices limited their use for predicting ground water vulnerability. Misuse of pesticides could be another factor that would complicate the relationships between pesticide concentrations and the vulnerability indices.     

不同农田土壤养分可持续性指数的研究

讨论了不同农田土壤碳、氮、磷、钾养分的可持续性指数。结果表明,不同施肥方式、不同土壤类型对碳、氮养分可持续性指数的影响表现为有机肥配施化肥处理＞有机肥处理＞化肥处理,潮土＞水稻土＞红壤;对磷、钾养分表现为化肥处理＞有机肥配施化肥处理＞有机肥处理,水稻土＞潮土＞红壤。相关分析表明,土壤养分可持续性指数与土壤养分相关或极相关。这表明,土壤养分可持续性指数可以用来评价土壤肥力和指示土壤养分的动态变化。