基于三次指数平滑模型的雾霾天气分析与预测

通过建立三次指数平滑模型,分析2002~2012年我国二氧化硫和烟尘的排放量以及每年在环境污染治理方面的投资总额等指标,得出未来3年内我国雾霾天气仍会频发的结论,并究其原因进行了分析。     

火灾探测的原理和方法(下)

简述了火灾现象的物理特征、火灾探测的基本原理并对火灾探测算法的建立及发展作了介绍。对产生火灾误报警的原因进行了分析，指出要改善火灾探测的准确性，缺少的不是思路和技术，而是火灾科学基础研究的积累。     

REGIONAL WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT BY THE GENERALIZED REDUCED GRADIENT METHOD1

ABSTRACT: A river basin-wide water quality management system is considered. The river receives thermal as well as organic wastes. At-source treatment of these pollutants is imposed to control the basin-wide water quality. The related water quality standards are: the minimum DO concentration, the maximum allowable BOD concentration, the maximum allowable stream temperature, and the allowable rise in stream temperature. The general dynamic mathematical model representing water quality in streams and the thermal effects on BOD and DO concentrations is presented. The model is highly nonlinear in nature. The optimal management problem involving the model is solved by a recently developed nonlinear propgramming technique - the generalized reduced gradient (GRG) method. Comparison of results obtained by the GRG method vs. dynamic programming, and of results using a more realistic mathematical model vs. a simple model are presented. The analysis procedure can be applied to designing new and examining existing water quality programs, and to study the influence of alternate policies and constraints.     

A HYBRID OPTIMIZATION APPROACH TO THE ESTIMATION OF DISTRIBUTED PARAMETERS IN TWO-DIMENSIONAL CONFINED AQUIFERS1

ABSTRACT: In using non-linear optimization techniques for estimation of parameters in a distributed ground water model, the initial values of the parameters and prior information about them play important roles. In this paper, the genetic algorithm (GA) is combined with the truncated-Newton search technique to estimate groundwater parameters for a confined steady-state ground water model. Use of prior information about the parameters is shown to be important in estimating correct or near-correct values of parameters on a regional scale. The amount of prior information needed for an accurate solution is estimated by evaluation of the sensitivity of the performance function to the parameters. For the example presented here, it is experimentally demonstrated that only one piece of prior information of the least sensitive parameter is sufficient to arrive at the global or near-global optimum solution. For hydraulic head data with measurement errors, the error in the estimation of parameters increases as the standard deviation of the errors increases. Results from our experiments show that, in general, the accuracy of the estimated parameters depends on the level of noise in the hydraulic head data and the initial values used in the truncated-Newton search technique.     

维多利亚蓝B与碘在水溶液中的显色反应-吸光光度法测定海产品中的碘

研究了水相中,维多利亚蓝B与碘离子(I~-)的显色反应.当磷酸浓度为1.6mol/L,聚乙烯醇为0.08％时,维多利亚蓝B与碘形成络合比为1∶3的络合物,最大吸收峰位于375nm处,表观摩尔吸光系数为1.02×10~4L/mol·cm,碘在(0～16)μg/ml范围内符合比耳定律.方法可用于海洋生物等样品中的微量碘测定,结果满意.     

油类物质测定的几个影响因素及改进

通过用重量法测定水中油类物质的几个影响因素的研究，得出了能够取得满意测定结果的方法．改进后的方法，减轻了工作量，节省了分析费用，有利于批量分析．     

有关pH值预测模式的探讨

对目前使用较为常见的ｐＨ预测模式和方法进行了分析探讨，提出了各自的适用和范围和存在问题，并提出了比较合理的ｐＨ值预测模式和方法．     

飞机炮击环境分析及模拟方法研究(下)

从飞机炮击环境的特性出发，指出GJB150．20－86窄带随机加宽带随机飞机炮振试验方法的局限性以及应用傅立叶分析方法分析炮击信号的不合理性，提出应用时－频联合分析方法进行炮击信号分析的可行性以及小波（Wavelet)分析技术用于炮击信号中确定性信号和非平稳随机信号分离的应用途径。最后，提出适用实验室炮击环境模拟的脉冲方法（Pulse Method)数学模型。     

星座图法在大气质量评价中的应用

利用星座图法进行大气质量评价,优化了路径权值的算法,得出的星座图在两维颊内具有同样模式距离接近和不同模式距拉开的特点。     

Development and Testing of a Physically Based Model of Streambank Erosion for Coupling with a Basin‐Scale Hydrologic Model SWAT

A comprehensive streambank erosion model based on excess shear stress has been developed and incorporated in the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). It takes into account processes such as weathering, vegetative cover, and channel meanders to adjust critical and effective stresses while estimating bank erosion. The streambank erosion model was tested for performance in the Cedar Creek watershed in north‐central Texas where streambank erosion rates are high. A Rapid Geomorphic field assessment (RAP‐M) of the Cedar Creek watershed was done adopting techniques developed by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), and the stream segments were categorized into various severity classes. Based on the RAP‐M field assessment, erosion pin sites were established at seven locations within the severely eroding streambanks of the watershed. A Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to assess the sensitivity of different parameters that control streambank erosion such as critical shear stress, erodibility, weathering depth, and weathering duration. The sensitive parameters were adjusted and the model was calibrated based on the bank erosion severity category identified by the RAP‐M field assessment. The average observed erosion rates were in the range 25‐367 mm year^?1. The SWAT model was able to reasonably predict the bank erosion rates within the range of variability observed in the field (R² = 0.90; E = 0.78). Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.