典型区耕地变化与GDP值变化的脱钩研究

研究目的：为了深入分析耕地占用与GDP值增长之间的关系，研究不同区域之间耕地数量变化与GDP值变化的差异性与相似性，有利于平衡耕地占用与GDP值增长之间的矛盾，同时有利于“状态-压力-响应”体系的研究。研究方法：主要是应用脱钩理论，引入了脱钩指数来分析不同区域各时点耕地数量变化与GDP值变化之间的关系，同时运用相关分析与回归分析的方法，确立了不同研究区耕地数量与社会经济指标之间的相关性，建立了耕地面积与GDP值的回归曲线。研究结论：耕地数量的变化与GDP值之间的关系因地域差异而表现不同，但是也存在一些相似点，即各个区域相对脱钩与绝对脱钩的年份基本一样；此外脱钩理论有利于进一步深化土地利用的研究。     

Transfrontier conservation areas: Integrating biodiversity and poverty alleviation in Southern Africa

Sub‐Saharan Africa continues to face the daunting challenge of alleviating poverty due to slow economic growth. In southern Africa, most countries are adopting policies that promote the integration of biodiversity conservation and rural development to contribute to rural poverty alleviation. Numerous approaches have been undertaken in this endeavour, including Transfrontier Parks (TFPs) and Transfrontier Conservation Areas (TFCAs). This paper discusses some of the limitations of the TFPs. In conclusion I posit that unlike TFPs, which are state controlled and managed, TFCAs, which promote multi‐land use and multi‐stakeholder participation are attainable and have a higher probability of sustaining biodiversity conservation and contributing to the alleviation of rural poverty, if: (i) areas of high biodiversity conservation within communal areas can be identified, zoned and leveraged to biodiversity conservation and managed in partnership between the communities and the private sector; (ii) local communities can secure legal rights to their customary land being devoted to biodiversity conservation and use such pieces of land as collateral in negotiating partnerships with the private sector in developing conservation‐based enterprises; (iii) functional community natural resource governance institutions can be established and empowered to represent their constituencies in securing fair equity from profits made from sustainable use of the conserved biodiversity assets and tourism businesses; (iv) concerted effort can be invested in developing and implementing family planning and fertility reduction strategies that would slow down human population growth to levels that can be sustained by the available natural resources; and (v) if sustainable financing mechanisms can be developed, and the governance of protected areas occurring in the TFCAs can be broadened to include other stakeholders.     

The incidence of land tenure insecurity in Southern Africa: Policy implications for sustainable development

The study presented in this article used a combination of key informant interviews and a review and synthesis of existing country level literature to identify the major sources of land tenure insecurity in six Southern African countries: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia. Findings reveal that the main causes of land tenure insecurity experienced in Southern Africa include lack of land rights of minority groups, unclear or overlapping land rights, overcrowding, land alienation into leasehold, insecurity of farm workers and farm labour tenants, inappropriate and exploitative administrative practices, land encroachment and illegal settlers and limited women's land rights. The article presents a summary of land tenure security related initiatives that the study countries have or are in the process of adopting. Analysis of these initiatives shows that tenure reforms have focused on changing the law and rules but little has been done to translate new laws into implementable programs; capacity building; prioritization of resources to support tenure reform; provision of complementary policies and incentives; addressing HIV/AIDS‐land tenure related problems; and monitoring and evaluation. The paper contends that these policy issues should be addressed in order to ensure realization of land tenure security for all.     

FLOOD HAZARD STUDIES IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN USING REMOTE SENSING1

ABSTRACT. The Spring 1973 Mississippi River flood was investigated using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1. Both manual and automatic analyses of the data indicate that ERTS-I is extremely useful as a regional tool for flood management. Quantitative estimates of area flooded were made in St. Charles County, Missouri and Arkansas. Flood hazard mapping was conducted in three study areas along the Mississippi River using pre-flood ERTS-1 imagery enlarged to 1:250,000 and 1:100,000 scale. The flood prone areas delineated on these maps correspond to areas that would be inundated by significant flooding (approximately the 100 year flood). The flood prone area boundaries were generally in agreement with flood hazard maps produced by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers and U. S. Geological Survey although the latter are somewhat more detailed because of their larger scale. Initial results indicate that ERTS-1 digital mapping of flood prone areas can be performed at 1:62,500 which is comparable to some conventional flood hazard map scales.     

Integrating economic landscape valuation into Mediterranean territorial planning

Recent and rapid landscape changes have occurred over large areas in Mediterranean Basin. Wildfires and human activities are the most important disturbances at landscape-level due to their ecological and socio-economic impacts. The increasing demand which society places on the forest landscapes has led us to develop a tool to identify the economic landscape value around natural protected areas. Our research focused on the integration of social, ecological and economic components of landscape management based on stated social preferences and contingent valuation method (CVM). Landscape value research has been motivated by the need to assist land use planning and environmental management.Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have provided new opportunities to spatially distributed modeling of landscape quality. Correlations were found between the representativeness of the landscape and its sense of belonging, and the contingent rating. Landscape with intensive agricultural practices and mining areas were the least preferred landscapes. There was a notable variation in the economic landscape value attributed to the study area based on the considered CVM scenario, ranging from 1,253,075.1 Euros to 3,650,827.8 Euros. We added the geospatial allocation of willingness to pay according to five landscape quality categories. Our approach could be used to identify priority areas for conservation based on maximizing landscape value, and would be useful in detecting interesting or conflict areas associated with new management and planning alternatives. In this sense, this approach offers managers to seek territorial management strategies to increase economic efficiency in the allocation of resources.     

Trends in management plans and guides: 25 years of experience from Southern France

This study analysed 14 management plans and guidelines from a 25-year period to understand trends in conservation planning. A Rosetta Stone Analysis was used for the systematic comparison of plans and guidelines. Management plans incorporated management philosophies, management scenarios, opportunities for infrastructure, and plans for data collection by 2000. As of 2010, they incorporated ecosystem services, stakeholders’ objectives and methods for storing and analysing data. The results demonstrate the complex nature of management plans, with an important workload for site managers. Recommendations for future planning include adjustments in planning timeframes and a better identification of conservation targets from initial stages.     

基于卫星遥感的浙北平原气溶胶光学特性长期变化分析

利用MOD04 C051气溶胶产品,以浙江北部平原为主要研究区,开展区域气溶胶光学特性长期(2000年3月—2013年12月)变化分析.长期逐月时间序列显示,区域气溶胶光学特性具有年内周期性变化规律,AOD(Aerosol Optical Depth)峰值多出现在5月或6月;Angstrom Exponent(α指数)峰值多出现在3月或4月.在空间分布上,研究区中部地区气溶胶污染较重且粗粒子成分较高.研究区气溶胶光学特性长期变化特征主要体现在:1气溶胶污染总体减轻但细粒子成分增加,复合污染加重;2008年以来区域AOD年均值总体呈下降趋势;2007—2013年α指数年均值显著高于2000—2006年;区域α指数月均值增长趋势显著,近14年的总倾向率为0.125(p0.05);2AOD和α指数的季节差异呈减小趋势,AOD的季节变化规律由2000年的春夏≈冬秋转变为2013年的春冬秋≥夏;α指数虽仍以夏秋季高于冬春季,但春秋两季α指数相对增大;3以污染较轻的湖州市和污染较重的嘉兴市为例的原因分析显示,AOD变化与SO2排放量具有一定相关性,α指数变化与民用汽车拥有量变化趋势一致,相关性较高.     

Environmental Policy Beliefs of Stakeholders in Protected Area Management

Although the importance of understanding stakeholder beliefs regarding environmental policy has been noted by many authors, research focusing on the heterogeneity of stakeholder views is still very scarce and concentrated on a product-oriented definition of stakeholders. The aim of the present study is to address this gap by examining environmental policy beliefs of stakeholder groups engaged in protected area management. Questionnaires containing 73 five-point Likert scale items were administered to eight different stakeholder groups involved in the management of Greek protected areas. Items referred to core beliefs on environmental policy, namely, the value framework and sustainable development, and secondary beliefs, that is, beliefs on social consensus and ecotourism development. Our study used as a starting point respondent recruitment on the basis of a traditional product-centered approach. We investigated whether environmental policy beliefs can be used to effectively segregate stakeholders in well-defined segments, which override the product-oriented definition of stakeholders. Indeed, K-means clustering revealed an innovation-introduction and an implementation-charged sample segment. The instrument utilized in this research proved quite reliable and valid in measuring stakeholder environmental policy beliefs. Furthermore, the methodology implied that stakeholder groups differ in a significant number of belief-system elements. On the other hand, stakeholder groups were effectively distinguished on a small set of both core and secondary beliefs. Therefore, the instrument used can be an effective tool for determining and monitoring environmental policy beliefs of stakeholders in protected area management. This is of considerable importance in the Greek case, given the recent establishment of 27 administrative bodies of protected areas, all of which are required to incorporate public consultation into management practices.     

山区农村居民点时空格局演变特征及蚁群仿真优化——以重庆澄江镇为例

山地农村居民点系统因受自然因素及人类活动等多重扰动而处于深刻转型中,探索山区农村居民点时空格局特征及其优化策略,对于优化山区国土空间格局、推进山区国土空间综合治理与乡村振兴具有重要意义。基于构建理论框架,集成运用景观格局指数法、栅格权重叠加评价法、改进蚁群算法（ACO）等,以重庆澄江镇为例,探索山区农村居民点时空格局演变特征及优化过程,提出优化调控策略。结果表明：（1）研究区农村居民点空间格局演变特征呈现集中、靠拢的演化发展趋势,总体呈现匀质、线状、向心、院落四种分布形态;同时高程、坡度、水域、城镇、道路、基础设施等自然—经济社会因素均对山区农村居民点时空格局演化产生重要影响。（2）改进蚁群算法优化后,研究区农村居民点斑块面积（CA）减少10.07%,居民点斑块数量（NP）和密度（PD）分别减少83.12%和81.16%,平均斑块面积（MPS）增加了4.3倍,平均最近邻体距离（MENN）增加了42.82%。优化后69.1%的农村居民点斑块都集中在适宜区和较适宜区内,且重点向交通便利、公共设施完善、生产便利和中心村庄集中。优化后的农村居民点空间格局更加紧凑有序,土地集约节约效率更高。（3）基于仿真优化结果,综合考虑村庄振兴“产业—人口—土地”互动耦合机制,提出城郊融合、产业集聚、景村融合、搬迁撤并四类农村居民点格局优化方案,助推山区乡村振兴。（4）优化结果同时表明改进的蚁群算法非常适用于复杂环境条件下的较小尺度要素空间布局优化,能够为山区国土空间规划编制提供技术支撑。