Citizens’ perceptions of trust relationships in the environmental management process in North Lebanon

This research investigates how trust plays a role in environmental management in North Lebanon, which has suffered repeated episodes of armed conflict in recent times. Previous studies have shown that environmental problems have increased and that the government has been unable to address these, even during periods of relative peace. We examined trust as a factor that contributes to, or hampers, environmental management. Our analysis drew on a survey in 2011 involving 499 citizens. The results demonstrated that, according to citizens, the lack of trust between citizens, and between citizens and the public sector, is a key factor obstructing effective environmental management. The results indicate the level of correlation between how trusting people are; how citizens participate; and how people perceive government legitimacy.     

2020年全国公众防震减灾素养水平及主要特点研究

2020年中国地震局开展了全国公众防震减灾知识普及和科普满意度抽样调查,结果显示,17.1%的受访者具备防震减灾素养,与2018年中国公民科学素质调查结果相比较,公众防震减灾素养水平的区域分布有明显不一样的规律,公众防震减灾素养水平与区域经济发展水平之间没有明显的相关性,区域地震灾害程度和个人地震经历对公众防震减灾素养水平有显著的影响。防震减灾素养水平在城乡、性别、受教育水平等不同群体中的差别,和中国公民科学素质调查结果基本一致,受教育水平对防震减灾素养水平影响最大。在不同年龄群体中的差别则和中国公民科学素质调查结果不同,显示出独特的规律。在防震减灾科普工作中,需要重视公众防震减灾素养水平的这些特点,采取有针对性的措施来提升科普效率。     

童装机械安全性检验与设计

本文分析了由于童装安全性不合格而被召回的案例,针对美国和欧盟的有关童装机械安全性标准,细化解析了标准中有关安全性设计的要求,以期为服装设计和生产提供参考。     

发挥人大建议政协提案在环保工作中作用研究--以大连为例

与环保相关的人大建议政协提案能够表达公众的环保诉求,推动地方环保立法、指导环境保护工作。是公众参与环保、监督环保的重要途径。论文以大连市办理建议提案经验为例,对如何发挥人大建议政协提案在环境保护工作中起到的作用进行了阐述。     

Are parents ready to use autonomous vehicles to transport children? Concerns and safety features

Introduction: This study addressed a gap in the literature – the potential of using autonomous vehicles (AV) to enhance children’s mobility. Prior studies documented the perceived benefits and concerns about this prospect, but did not examine the features in AV and support mechanisms that are desired by potential users. Method: An on-line survey was used to collect public opinions within the United States. In the survey, willingness to use AVs for this use case was asked twice to assess if participants changed their mind after being asked about concerns related to this prospect and importance of car features. A combination of statistical and machine-learning methods were used to profile individuals with high versus low post-willingness and to identify variables that differentiated the two groups. Results: Results indicated that respondents who were lower on their post-willingness to use AVs to transport children were more concerned about how AVs would protect children, how someone could harm the children inside, and whether there would be someone at the destination. In addition, they were less in favor of technology, older in age, and rated car features such as having a designated adult waiting at destination, a camera, and a microphone as relatively required (as opposed to optional). These results highlight potential users’ needs and requirements as they think about AVs in the context of parent–children mobility practices. Practical Applications: Relevant stakeholders should develop deployment and implementation plans while taking into account ridership contexts and vulnerable road users who can benefit from enhanced mobility.     

考虑人因可靠性的安全仪表功能SIL验证方法研究

油气站场一般设置有紧急停车系统（ESD）等存在操作员介入的非常规安全仪表功能（SIF）,为解决已有的安全完整性等级（SIL）评估方法不能针对此类SIF进行功能安全评价的情况。对存在操作员介入的非常规SIF进行研究,将其中的人为因素细分为观察、决策和执行3个阶段;根据各类人因可靠性分析方法优缺点,筛选CREAM和HCR方法分别分析紧急情景环境和应急响应时间对非常规SIF人因失效概率的影响,建立考虑人因可靠性的SIL验证模型;基于此模型选取某输油站典型SIF开展SIL评估,分析人因失效对SIF整体可靠性的影响水平,并提出改善措施。结果表明:将操作员应急响应过程中的人因失效概率引入传统的SIL验证模型中,可实现对非常规SIF的功能安全评价;人因失效对非常规SIF具有显著影响,筛选的人因可靠性模型可准确计算人因失效概率。     

乡村旅游背景下农户生计策略转变意愿研究

近年来在乡村振兴战略实施背景下,乡村旅游在发展农村经济中的作用更加凸显。促进乡村旅游的健康发展和乡村农户生计的持续改善是当前学术界讨论的重要话题。现有研究表明,可持续生计框架中客观环境影响作用是可持续旅游生计研究的热点方向,但可持续生计框架外其他主观因素对生计策略转变影响的动态定量考量却较为空缺。本研究在乡村旅游背景下探讨政府信任度对农户生计策略转变意愿影响机制,引入居民参与度、居民支持度和生活满意度多重链式中介作用,通过结构方程模型对山东省乡村旅游地进行定量分析,并对特定路径间中介作用进行比较。实证研究结果显示:①政府信任度对居民参与度和居民支持度具有正向影响,居民支持度正向影响居民参与度。②居民参与度和居民支持度均正向影响生活满意度。③生活满意度对农户生计策略转变意愿产生正向影响。这表明在居民支持度、居民参与度和生活满意度多重链式中介作用下,政府信任度对生计策略转变意愿具有间接影响。因此,为了助推乡村振兴,实现乡村旅游和农户生计的可持续,应发挥政府作用,从政策实施、旅游市场监控、完善基础设施建设等方面提高政府信任度,培养农户的主人翁意识,引导农户融入乡村旅游发展过程中,提高生活满意度,增强农户生计策略转变意愿。     

干旱冲击下草地租赁对草场退化及牧户生计的影响

近年来草地租赁市场在牧区出现并逐渐发展。然而,作为调节牧户资源的市场制度,其对草原社会生态的影响莫衷一是。Agent-based model(ABM)是社会科学领域先进的定量分析模型,可用来模拟复杂环境中主体间的交互关系及作用结果。本文首先在理论上分析了内蒙古牧区“人-草-畜”关系,揭示了牧区社会生态的复杂性,之后在此基础上,运用ABM模拟草地租赁中“人-草-畜”关系,通过调节干旱发生概率及牧户草地出租意愿,分析干旱冲击下草地租赁对草场退化及牧户生计的影响。为了更合理地展示和模拟牧区实际,本文结合2015—2016年内蒙古锡林郭勒盟、呼伦贝尔市的调研数据和部分文献、年报数据,对ABM中相关的参数进行设定,构建了用于模拟干旱冲击下牧区草地租赁的模型:①控制干旱概率,调节出租意愿的模型结果表明,在一定的干旱冲击下,草地租赁是一个有效的制度安排,可以缓解干旱导致的草地退化,提高牧区草场的总体生产力,并提高参与租赁户的生计水平。②控制出租意愿,调节干旱发生概率的模型结果则表明,当干旱加剧时,仅有单一的草地租赁制度无法阻止草场退化和牧户收入下降,草地生态及牧户收入仍然会受到干旱冲击的较大影响。因此,完善草地租赁市场,可在一定程度上缓解干旱冲击对草地退化的影响,提高牧户收入。但为了保障牧区社会生态的可持续性,还需发展牧业合作社和草地合作小组等其他制度。ABM可以通过对现实变量的参数化来模拟现实状况,对指导类似草原牧区等存在多个主体交互关系的社区实践具有重要作用。     

基于不同卫星降雨产品的澴水花园流域径流模拟比较研究

卫星降雨产品作为缺资料或无资料地区估算流域降雨径流的一种途径,适用性尚需大量实验研究。以澴水花园流域为研究区,综合评估了TRMM(3B42V7)、TRMM_RT(3B42V7)、PERSIANN CDR和CMORPH 4个卫星降雨产品在流域平均雨量计算与径流模拟中的精度,设置多方案与多种水文模拟情景全面检验各降雨产品的可靠性与适用性。研究表明：(1)在研究期2002~2013年,没有一个卫星降雨产品对所有精度评价指标均表现最优,PERSIANN始终表现为最差;(2)各卫星降雨产品对于不同年代和不同统计时段的精度差异明显,且一般汛期精度高于全年精度。各年代精度最高的卫星降雨产品在年与汛期尺度上与实测雨量相关系数均超过0.9;(3)各卫星降雨产品对有雨日降雨探测能力较强,但空报率较高,所有卫星降雨产品对于年最大1 d、3 d和7 d降雨估算误差较大,无法达到可利用精度;(4)采用卫星降雨产品进行径流模拟时,以相应的卫星降雨进行水文模型参数率定可获得更高的模拟精度。TRMM_RT与CMORPH日径流模拟精度较好,CMORPH月径流模拟精度较好。总体而言,CMORPH更适用于径流模拟。对于典型的3场大洪水模拟结果表明,TRMM_RT和CMORPH对洪峰与洪量（径流深）的模拟精度相对较高。     

Co-creating an alternative: the moral economy of participating in farmers’ markets

Growing dissatisfaction with the globalised food system, articulated on the behalf of both producers and consumers, has caused a variety of public debates surrounding the ethics of food production and consumption to become increasingly visible in society over the last two decades. Simultaneously, farmers’ markets (FMs) and other forms of direct marketing have experienced a noteworthy increase in participants, indicating an emerging demand for an alternative to conventional food networks, alternatives that are often perceived as providing a more just and moral relationship to food production and consumption. This study examines consumer and producer motivations for participation in FMs and opinions towards conventional and alternative agriculture in order to elucidate what (if any) values and morals are shared among producers and consumers. This study draws upon the theoretical framework of moral economy to understand whether these shared values suggest FM participants are working to co-create an alternative economy based on “moral” principles such as fairness, justice, and reciprocity. This mixed-methods study consists of consumer surveys (N?=?377) and semi-structured interviews with producers (N?=?17) from five FMs in the state of Delaware. The results suggest that producer and consumer motivations to participate in FMs, particularly a shared emphasis on social value, are indicative of a sense of moral economy. However, this moral economy is complicated by tension towards consumers and the alternative food movement more generally expressed on behalf of producers.