Modeling human-induced climatic change: A summary for environmental managers

The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has caused concern because of their potential to alter the earth's radiation budget and disrupt current climate patterns While there are many uncertainties associated with use of general circulation models (GCMs), GCMs are currently the best available technology to project changes in climate associated with elevated gas concentrations. Results indicate increases in global temperature and changes in global precipitation patterns are likely as a result of doubled CO₂. GCMs are not reliable for use at the regional scale because local scale processes and geography are not taken into account. Comparison of results from five GCMs in three regions of the United States indicate high variability across regions and among models depending on season and climate variable. Statistical methods of scaling model output and nesting finer resolution models in global models are two techniques that may improve projections. Despite the many limitations in GCMs, they are useful tools to explore climate-earth system dynamics when used in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models. A variety of water resource models showed significant alteration of regional hydrology when run with both GCM-generated and hypothetical climate scenarios, regardless of region or model complexity. Similarly, ecological models demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem production, nutrient dynamics, and distribution to changes in climate and CO₂ levels. We recommend the use of GCM-based scenarios in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models to guide environmental management and policy in a “no-regrets” framework or as part of a precautionary approach to natural resource protection.     

The readability of federal land management plans

Regulations to implement the National Environmental Policy Act state that environmental impact statements shall be written in plain language. Federal land management agencies operate under this guideline when they prepare plans for their lands. We examined 23 agency plans, using the Flesch Reading Ease Scale, to determine if they met this criterion. The scores show that the plans are written for people with three to six years of college education, far beyond the reading ability of the average person. The results suggest that the plans may limit or bias who participates in agency planning. National policy on the readability of the plans needs to be clarified, and agencies need to evaluate, and defend or revise, their writing programs.     

A first alternative for estimating the physical carrying capacities of natural areas for recreation

Utilizing an adaptation of the Universal Soil Loss Equation, this article discusses a method for approximating the physical carrying capacity of natural areas for outdoor recreation. Classification of forested woodland and field environments is based upon the conversion of ground cover coefficients to the percentage of ground cover required to maintain soil productivity over time. Four canopy types, three canopy densities, and two general types of ground cover are recognized in the equation as well as soil characteristics, topographical variations, and rainfall velocities and intensities. The method requires that the areal distribution of soils occurring within natural areas be mapped. Approximations will vary according to the intensity of the planning desired, and may range from a general classification of large land areas to highly site-specific evaluations. Data generated from over 40 years of cooperative research form the basis for classifying natural areas according to their relative physical capacities to accommodate outdoor recreation.     

Land development and employment creation on landed estates in the Northern Highlands

The landed estates may be divided into four groups according to land use and use intensity: crofting, sheep, sporting, mixed use. While sheep and mixed use estates have held sheep numbers constant, other estates have shown dramatic declines. All estates, and in particular sporting estates, have increased deer culls. Many sporting estates are supported by external private finance which makes land development unnecessary. Private enjoyment is an important ownership motivation on many estates. This, rather than lack of profitability or lack of finance, prevents development. However, significant employment creation can come only through extensive land developments beyond those on even the more productive estates. Such a strategy would require a development plan and a challenge to existing property rights.     

Wind energy development in California,USA

Windfarms have been developed rapidly in California in the last few years. The impetus has been a legislated goal to generate 10% of California's electricity by windpower by the year 2000, and generous state and federal tax incentives. Windpower is promoted as environmentally benign, which it is in traditional uses. The California program, however, is not traditional: it calls for centralized development of a magnitude sufficient to offset significant amounts of fossil fuels now used to generate electricity.Centralized windfarm development, as exemplified by the Altamont Pass, Tehachapi Mountains, and San Gorgonio Pass developments, involves major road building projects in erosion-sensitive terrain, effective closure of public lands, and other detrimental effects. A windfarm consisting of 200 turbines with 17-m rotors located in steep terrain 16 km from an existing corridor might occupy 235 ha and physically disturb 86 ha. With average annual wind speeds of 22.5 km/h, the farm would generate about 10×10⁶ kWh/year at present levels of capacity. This annual production would offset 1% of one day's consumption of oil in California. To supply 10% of the state's electricity (at 1984 production rates) would require about 600,000 turbines of the type in common use today and would occupy more than 685,000 ha. It is likely that indirect effects would be felt in much larger areas and would include increased air and water pollution resulting from accelerated erosion, degradation of habitat of domestic and wild animals, damage to archaeological sites, and reduction of scenic quality of now-remote areas of the state.     

Louisiana wetland loss: A regional water management approach to the problem

Loss of Louisiana's coastal wetlands has reached catastrophic proportions. The loss rate is approximately 150 km²/yr (100 acres/day) and is increasing exponentially. Total wetland loss since the turn of the century has been almost 0.5 million ha (1.1 million acres) and represents an area larger than Rhode Island. The physical cause of the problem lies in man's attempts to control the Mississippi River's flooding, while enhancing navigation and extracting minerals. Levee systems and control structures confine sediments that once nourished the wetlands to the river channel. As a consequence, the ultimate sediment deposition is in deep Gulf waters off the Louisiana coast. The lack of sediment input to the interdistributary wetlands results in an accretion deficit. Natural and human-induced subsidence exceeds accretion so that the wetlands sink below sea level and convert to water. The solution is to provide a thin veneer of sediment (approximately 0.6 cm/yr; an average of 1450 g m^?2 yr^?1) over the coastal marshes and swamps and thus prevent the submergence of vegetation. The sediment source is the Mississippi River system. Calculations show that 9.2% of the river's annual suspended sediment load would be required to sustain the deltaic plain wetlands. It should be distributed during the six high-water months (December–June) through as disaggregated a network as possible. The problem is one of distribution: how can the maximum acres of marsh be nourished with the least cost? At present, the river is managed through federal policy for the benefit of navigation and flood control. A new policy structure, recognizing the new role for the river-sediment distribution, is recommended.     

A review of methods of public land ownership and allocation for housing in Iran

In the aftermath of the 1979 revolution, the new administration adopted a number of policies to address the question of land ownership, supply and allocation in order to tackle the acute shortage of housing in the urban areas. In 1982, the Five‐Year Urban Land Act was passed by the Parliament. Subsequently a body called the Urban Land Organisation (ULO) was set up to co‐ordinate the process of land preparation and allocation. The 1982 Urban Land act empowered the government to: (a) expropriate certain categories of abandoned urban land, and (b) to set a temporary time schedule of five years during which the act's work will be monitored.

This paper sets out to examine the policies related to urban land which have been introduced and implemented in the 1980s in Iran.     

Perceiving Land-Degrading Activities from the Lay Perspective in Northern China

Investigation into local peoples’ perceptions can produce useful information that could be incorporated into the decision-making process to help resolve environmental problems. Within the arena of land degradation, a number of studies have also been conducted to explore local peoples’ views of the problem. However, the perceptions of land-degrading practices of the general public have so far not been actively solicited. This study aimed to contribute to this area of research by adopting the psychometric scaling technique to empirically explore the lay public’s ecological risk perceptions of land-degrading activities in Minqin County in Gansu Province, northern China. The primary data were collected via a questionnaire survey (n = 1,138) administered between 14 and 31 December 2002. The major findings of the survey were: (1) Respondents perceived the ecological risks posed by different land-degrading activities to be different. (2) There was a considerable incongruence in the way in which mining of groundwater was conceived by experts and laymen, respectively. (3) Respondents were pretty unsure of expert knowledge. (4) Respondents’ ecological risk perceptions were significantly affected by their personal attributes. As far as the policy implications of these findings are concerned, this study accentuates that we must be aware of, and involved in, the environmental perceptions of the lay public in order to succeed in guiding any human-environment tensions along more sustainable trajectories and navigating the transition to sustainability.     

Land Use/Cover Changes, the Environment and Water Resources in Northeast China

Land use/cover in Northeast China went through extensive changes during the 1990s. This report explores the interaction between these changes and the environment, and the implication of these changes for rational allocation of water resources. Two maps of land use/cover produced from 1990 and 2000 Landsat TM satellite images were overlaid in ArcInfo to reveal changes in land cover. Results indicate that farmland and grassland decreased by 386,195 and 140,075 ha, respectively, while water, built-up areas, and woodland increased by 238,596, 194,231, and 192,682 ha, respectively. These changes bore a mutual relationship with the environmental change. On the one hand, climate warming made some of these changes (e.g., conversion of woodland and grassland to farmland) possible. On the other hand, the changed surface cover modified the local climate. These changes, in turn, caused severe environmental degradation and increased flooding. The change between dry field and rice paddy, in particular, raised severe implications for the proper allocation of limited water resources in the Northeast. Efforts are needed to coordinate their rational allocation to reap maximum and sustainable return over the entire area, not just in some localities. Results obtained in this study should be of interest to the international audience of Environmental Management in that they highlight the interactive nature of human activities and the environment and the off-site impact of these activities on the environment.     

Monitoring Environmental Changes in the Mediterranean Coastal Landscape: The Case of Cukurova, Turkey

This paper describes a remote sensing approach used to monitor temporal land use/cover (LULC) changes in Cukurova, an extensive coastal plain in the southeast Mediterranean coast of Turkey. The area has varied terrain ranging from low-lying alluvial deposits to rocky hills and mountains characterized by limestone outcrops. The ecological and economic importance of the area can be attributed to the existence of important coastal ecosystems (e.g., wetlands and sand dunes) and a wide range of industries located along the eastern coast. Temporal changes in the coastal landscape between 1984 and 2000 were evaluated using digital interpretation of remotely sensed satellite data. Pairwise comparison methods were used to quantify changes from 1984 to 1993 and 1993 to 2000 using multitemporal Landsat TM and ETM+ images, acquired in 1984, 1993, and 2000, respectively. Total change area was 2448 ha from 1984 to 1993 and increased more than twofold, to 6072 ha from 1993 to 2000. Change trends were determined using the information provided from individual change detection outputs of different periods. The most prominent changes were estimated to have occurred in agriculture, urban, and natural vegetation cover. Agriculture has increasingly grown over marginal areas, whereas urban development occurred at the expense of prime croplands across both time steps.