基于Logistic回归模型的呼伦贝尔草原火险预测研究

目前国内外还没有对不同火险条件下草原火险时空发生概率的研究,而这方面研究对草原火灾管理对策和防火救助应急预案的制定具有重要意义.根据呼伦贝尔草原火灾统计月报表和相关气象、社会经济资料,利用Logistic回归模型建立草原火险预测模型,对草原火险进行了空间上的预测.结果表明,日平均风速、日降水量对草原火险影响较大. 以2005年所有火灾案例对草原火险预测模型进行检验,研究表明,该预测方法具有较高的可靠性,可为火灾管理和减灾决策的制定提供指导.     

Studies on materials containing polysaccharides as soil amendments 1: effects on animal waste water purification in a potting experiment

A potting experiment was carried out to determine the effects of soil amendments containing polysaccharides and earthworms on a land application system for the purification of animal waste water. The following soil amendments were used: purified Konjak powder (KP, powder containing glucomannan made from the root system of devil's tongue, Amorphophalus rivieri Dur.), crystallized cellulose (CC), and a mixture of the two (MX). These soil amendments were added to the pots, and then Chrysanthemum corondria were planted in the earthworm pots (A pots), the nonearthworm pots (B pots), and the control pots (C pots); the first two plots received primary-treated animal waste water, and the other one received tap water. The following items were then measured: pH, electrical conductivity, chemical oxygen demand (COD_Mn), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus, the volume of drained water from each pots, the height and dry matter weight of plants, and the water permeability into the soil. The MX-A pots, i.e., the pots containing both soil amendments and earthworms, gave good results, especially for water permeability, plant growth, the purification of COD_Mn, and TN. These results suggest that the presence of soil amendments and earthworms may enhance the improvement of water quality in land application systems using vegetation. Received: December 9, 1998 / Accepted: February 8, 2000     

Utilization Characteristics and Importance of Woody Biomass Resources on the Rural-Urban Fringe in Botswana

This article examines the utilization characteristics and importance of woody biomass resources in the rural-urban fringe zones of Botswana. In the literature for Africa, attention has been given to the availability and utilization of biomass in either urban or rural environments, but the rural-urban fringe has been neglected. Within southern Africa, this neglect is not justified; the rural-urban fringe, not getting the full benefits available in urban environments in Botswana, has developed problems in woody biomass availability and utilization that require close attention. In this article, socioeconomic data on the importance of woody biomass in the Batlokwa Tribal Territory, on the rural-urban fringe of Gaborone, Botswana, were collected together with ecologic data that reveal the utilization characteristics and potential for regrowth of woody biomass. The analysis of these results show that local woody biomass is very important in the daily lives of communities in the rural-urban fringe zones and that there is a high level of harvesting. However, there is no effort in planning land use in the tribal territory to either conserve this resource or provide alternatives to its utilization. The future of woody biomass resources in Botswana’s rural-urban fringe is uncertain. The investigators recommend that a comprehensive policy for the development of the rural-urban fringe consider the importance of this resource. The neglect of this resource will have far-reaching implications on the livelihoods of residents as well as the environment in this zone.     

Agricultural Land Use and Best Management Practices to Control Nonpoint Water Pollution

In recent years, improvements in point-source depuration technologies have highlighted the problems regarding agricultural nonpoint (diffuse) sources, and this issue has become highly relevant from the environmental point of view. The considerable extension of the areas responsible for this kind of pollution, together with the scarcity of funds available to local managers, make minimizing the impacts of nonpoint sources on a whole basin a virtually impossible task. This article presents the results of a study intended to pinpoint those agricultural areas, within a basin, that contribute most to water pollution, so that operations aimed at preventing and/or reducing this kind of pollution can be focused on them. With this aim, an innovative approach is presented that integrates a field-scale management model, a simple regression model, and a geographic information system (GIS). The Lake Vico basin, where recent studies highlighted a considerable increase in the trophic state, mainly caused by phosphorus (P) compounds deriving principally from the intensive cultivation of hazelnut trees in the lake basin, was chosen as the study site. Using the management model Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems (GLEAMS), the consequences, in terms of sediment yield and phosphorus export, of hazelnut tree cultivation were estimated on different areas of the basin with and without the application of a best management practice (BMP) that consists of growing meadow under the trees. The GLEAMS results were successively extended to basin scale thanks to the application of a purposely designed regression model and of a GIS. The main conclusions can be summarized as follows: The effectiveness of the above-mentioned BMP is always greater for erosion reduction than for particulate P reduction, whatever the slope value considered; moreover, the effectiveness with reference to both particulate P and sediment yield production decreases as the slope increases. The proposed approach, being completely distributed, represents a considerable step ahead compared to the semidistributed or lumped approaches, which are traditionally employed in research into tools to support the decision-making process for land-use planning aimed at water pollution control.     

Spatial Relations Between Floodplain Environments and Land Use – Land Cover of a Large Lowland Tropical River Valley: Pánuco Basin, México

Large lowland river valleys include a variety of floodplain environments that represent opportunities and constraints for human activities. This study integrates extensive field observations and geomorphic data with analysis of satellite remote sensing data to examine spatial relations between land use/land cover (LULC) and floodplain environments in the lower Pánuco basin of eastern Mexico. The floodplain of the lower Pánuco basin was delineated by combining a digital elevation model with a satellite image of a large flood event. The LULC was classified by combining a hybrid classification strategy with image stratification, applied to 15-m-resolution ASTER data. A geomorphic classification of floodplain environments was performed using a dry-stage image (ASTER data) and a 1993 Landsat image acquired during a large flood event. Accuracy assessment was based on aerial photographs (1:38,000), global positioning satellite ground-truthing, and a Landsat 7ETM⁺ image from 2000, which resulted in an overall accuracy of 82.9% and a KHAT of 79.8% for the LULC classification. The geomorphic classification yielded 83.5% overall accuracy, whereas the KHAT was 81.5%. LULC analysis was performed for the entire floodplain and individually within four valley segments. The analysis indicates that the study area is primarily utilized for grazing and farming. Agriculture is primarily associated with coarse-grained (sandy/silty) natural levee and point bar units close to the river channel, whereas cattle grazing occurs in distal and lower-lying reaches dominated by cohesive fine-grained (clayey) deposits, such as backswamps. In the Pánuco valley, wetlands and lakes occur within backswamp environments, whereas in the Moctezuma segments, wetlands and lakes are associated with relict channels. This study reveals considerable variation in LULC related to spatial differences in floodplain environments and illustrates the importance of considering older anthropogenic influences on the landscape. The research design should be applicable for other large lowland coastal plain river valleys where agriculture is a major component of the floodplain landscape.     

Terrestrial metapopulation dynamics: a nonlinear bioeconomic model analysis

This paper presents a spatially explicit bioeconomic analysis of species conservation in agricultural areas. Wild species in fragmented agricultural landscapes are best approached as metapopulations consisting of a finite number of local populations. Economic analysis of species conservation in fragmented habitat needs to deal with metapopulation theory and its theoretical implications. This paper presents a spatially explicit bioeconomic model consisting of a straightforward economic land use model and an applied metapopulation model. This paper demonstrates that multiple equilibria and multiple local optima in metapopulations might lead to nonconvexities in the production possibilities set of agricultural profits and species conservation.     

Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/-9.2)ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation.     

Guiding restoration of riparian ecosystems degraded by plant invasions: Insights from a complex social-ecological system in the Global South

Restoring riparian ecosystems in human-dominated landscapes requires attention to complexity, and consideration of diverse drivers, social actors, and contexts. Addressing a Global North bias, this case study uses a mixed-method approach, integrating historical data, remote sensing techniques and stakeholder perceptions to guide restoration of a river in the Western Cape, South Africa. An analysis of aerial photographs of the riparian zone from 1953 to 2016 revealed that although anthropogenic land conversion happened primarily before the 1950s, several land use and land cover classes showed marked increases in area, including: waterbodies (+ 1074%), urban areas (+ 316%), alien weeds (+ 311%) and terrestrial alien trees (+ 79%). These changes have likely been driven by land fragmentation, disturbance, and agricultural intensification. Stakeholder interviews revealed that despite the clear need for restoration, several barriers exist to successful implementation; these stem from inadequate financial resources, inappropriate funding models, institutional challenges, and a lack of techno-scientific knowledge. We give several recommendations to overcome these barriers.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01691-y.     

Land system architecture for urban sustainability: new directions for land system science illustrated by application to the urban heat island problem

ABSTRACT

Land system science (LSS) has expanded its research focus from the drivers of land-use and -cover change primarily in rural wildlands to include the social-environmental consequences of this change, urban areas, and sustainability practice. Land system architecture, interacting with the landscape mosaic approach in ecology, offers a special niche for the entry of rural areas and wildlands into urban sustainability research through examinations of the composition and configuration of ‘cityscapes’. Given the fine-grain data requirements of heterogeneous cityscapes, emergent land architecture-mosaic approaches have largely explored the urban heat island (UHI) problem, a topic that links LSS with the interests of urban climatology, engineering, and planning in city morphology or geometry. The subtle distinctions in the treatment of land configuration between land architecture-mosaic approaches and urban morphology-geometry approaches are identified. Several examples of the land architecture-mosaic approach illustrate the understanding gained about the UHI problem as well as its complementarity with morphology-geometry approaches. This understanding provides insights about the design of urban areas at the parcel to neighborhood scales to ameliorate extreme temperatures, an issue of increasing concern for urban areas worldwide and consistent with the sustainability problems identified by such international programs as Future Earth.     

Migration of heavy metals in soil as influenced by compost amendments

Soils contaminated with heavy metals can pose a major risk to freshwaters and food chains. In this study, the success of organic and inorganic intervention strategies to alleviate toxicity in a highly acidic soil heavily contaminated with As, Cu, Pb, and Zn was evaluated over 112 d in a mesocosm trial. Amelioration of metal toxicity was assessed by measuring changes in soil solution chemistry, metal leaching, plant growth, and foliar metal accumulation. Either green waste- or MSW-derived composts increased plant yield and rooting depth, reduced plant metal uptake, and raised the pH and nutrient status of the soil. We conclude that composts are well suited for promoting the re-vegetation of contaminated sites; however, care must be taken to ensure that very short-term leaching pulses of heavy metals induced by compost amendment are not of sufficient magnitude to cause contamination of the wider environment.