基于Logistic回归模型的呼伦贝尔草原火险预测研究

目前国内外还没有对不同火险条件下草原火险时空发生概率的研究,而这方面研究对草原火灾管理对策和防火救助应急预案的制定具有重要意义.根据呼伦贝尔草原火灾统计月报表和相关气象、社会经济资料,利用Logistic回归模型建立草原火险预测模型,对草原火险进行了空间上的预测.结果表明,日平均风速、日降水量对草原火险影响较大. 以2005年所有火灾案例对草原火险预测模型进行检验,研究表明,该预测方法具有较高的可靠性,可为火灾管理和减灾决策的制定提供指导.     

Guiding restoration of riparian ecosystems degraded by plant invasions: Insights from a complex social-ecological system in the Global South

Restoring riparian ecosystems in human-dominated landscapes requires attention to complexity, and consideration of diverse drivers, social actors, and contexts. Addressing a Global North bias, this case study uses a mixed-method approach, integrating historical data, remote sensing techniques and stakeholder perceptions to guide restoration of a river in the Western Cape, South Africa. An analysis of aerial photographs of the riparian zone from 1953 to 2016 revealed that although anthropogenic land conversion happened primarily before the 1950s, several land use and land cover classes showed marked increases in area, including: waterbodies (+ 1074%), urban areas (+ 316%), alien weeds (+ 311%) and terrestrial alien trees (+ 79%). These changes have likely been driven by land fragmentation, disturbance, and agricultural intensification. Stakeholder interviews revealed that despite the clear need for restoration, several barriers exist to successful implementation; these stem from inadequate financial resources, inappropriate funding models, institutional challenges, and a lack of techno-scientific knowledge. We give several recommendations to overcome these barriers.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01691-y.     

Land use and land cover dynamics in the Keleta watershed,Awash River basin,Ethiopia

Unprecedented pace and magnitude of land use/land cover (LULC) change in the Ethiopian highlands is a key problem threatening the natural ecosystem and creates vulnerability to an environmental hazard. A combination of remote sensing, field observations and focus group discussions were used to analyze the dynamics and drivers of LULC change from 1985 to 2011 in the Keleta watershed, Ethiopia. Supervised image classification was used to map LULC classes. Focus group discussions and ranking were used to explain the drivers and causes linked to the changes. The result showed rapid expansion of farmland and settlement (36%), shrublands cover shrinking by 50%, while the size of degraded land increased by 45%. Rapid population growth, rainfall variability and soil fertility decline, lack of fuelwood and shortage of cultivation land were ranked as the main causes of LULC change in the watershed according to the focus group discussion. Further effort is needed to improve the creation of new job opportunity, promotion of improved technologies to boost productivity and soil fertility, provide credit facility, extra push on irrigation infrastructure development and soil, water and natural ecosystem conservation practices. Generally, better community-based land resource management will need to ensure sustainable rural livelihoods.     

Perceptions of personal and governmental actions to improve responses to disasters such as Superstorm Sandy

Superstorm Sandy made landfall in New Jersey on 29 October 2012, leaving tens of thousands homeless, businesses destroyed, and 90% of New Jersey residents without electricity. Widespread infrastructure and property damage, health-related issues, and social dislocations still remain among the challenges. We interviewed 756 people in central and coastal New Jersey to ascertain damage levels, what they would do differently next time, and what governments should do differently. To deal with future events, people thought that they should prepare, buy generators and other supplies, and evacuate sooner. Their actions dealt with preparedness, rather than recovery or resiliency. However, the subjects felt that governmental agencies also had a responsibility for emergency actions, recovery, and resiliency. Preparedness included better warnings and helping to prepare homes for the impending storm. During the storm, people thought government should have faster evacuations, communications, and provide shelter, security, and supplies. Recovery included providing gas and generators, restoring electricity, providing money, and quicker response by FEMA and insurance companies. People thought the government should ensure resiliency of their communities by allowing no beach-front homes, having better building standards, and restoring dunes. Coastal people suffered greater damage for longer, and voiced a higher sense of wanting government actions.     

Land system architecture for urban sustainability: new directions for land system science illustrated by application to the urban heat island problem

ABSTRACT

Land system science (LSS) has expanded its research focus from the drivers of land-use and -cover change primarily in rural wildlands to include the social-environmental consequences of this change, urban areas, and sustainability practice. Land system architecture, interacting with the landscape mosaic approach in ecology, offers a special niche for the entry of rural areas and wildlands into urban sustainability research through examinations of the composition and configuration of ‘cityscapes’. Given the fine-grain data requirements of heterogeneous cityscapes, emergent land architecture-mosaic approaches have largely explored the urban heat island (UHI) problem, a topic that links LSS with the interests of urban climatology, engineering, and planning in city morphology or geometry. The subtle distinctions in the treatment of land configuration between land architecture-mosaic approaches and urban morphology-geometry approaches are identified. Several examples of the land architecture-mosaic approach illustrate the understanding gained about the UHI problem as well as its complementarity with morphology-geometry approaches. This understanding provides insights about the design of urban areas at the parcel to neighborhood scales to ameliorate extreme temperatures, an issue of increasing concern for urban areas worldwide and consistent with the sustainability problems identified by such international programs as Future Earth.     

Socioeconomic outcomes of agricultural land use change in Southeast Asia

Agricultural land use is transforming rapidly in Southeast Asia, often supported by development policies aiming primarily at economic growth. However, the socioeconomic outcomes of these changes for smallholder farmers remain unclear. Here, we systematically review cases of agricultural land use change in Southeast Asia to assess their socioeconomic outcomes and potential trade-off and synergies in these outcomes. Of the 126 reviewed cases, we find mostly positive outcomes for income (SDG 1, 100 cases) and employment (SDG 8, 11 cases), while outcomes on health (SDG 3, 9 cases) were mixed, and outcomes for food security (SDG 2, 44 cases), gender equality (SDG 5, 13 cases), and economic equality (SDG 10, 14 cases) were mostly negative. Studies describing multiple outcomes show indications of synergies between income and food security, and between income and employment, but also potential trade-offs between income and economic equality. In addition, we find that economic land concessions result in multiple negative outcomes more often than other types of land governance regimes. The results provide evidence that economic gains from agricultural land use change often come at a cost of other dimensions of sustainable development.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01712-4.     

泰州全市及生态红线区“十二五”土地利用变化探究

以土地利用转移矩阵为基础,通过计算土地利用净变化量、交换变化量和绝对变化总量,对泰州市及生态红线区2010—2014年土地利用空间变化特征做分析。结果显示:耕地转化为建设用地及水域湿地景观为主要变化趋势,生态红线区域内土地开发利用受到较严格的限制,保护措施成效较好,其自然生态环境得到持续的修复和改善。     

Testing differences in methods of preparing moss samples

The main objective of this research was to estimate the total mass of nitrogen discharged from various sources in Korea using the mass balance approach. Three different nitrogen mass balances were presented: (1) agricultural activities including raising crops and animal husbandry; (2) domestic activities, and (3) activities in forest and urban areas. These nitrogen balances were combined to estimate riverine discharge of nitrogen to the ocean in national scale. Nitrogen inputs include atmospheric deposition, biological nitrogen fixation, application of inorganic fertilizers/manures, animal feed/imported foodstuffs, and meat/fish. Nitrogen outputs include ammonia volatilization, denitrification, human/animal waste generation, crop/meat production, and riverine discharge to the ocean. The estimated total nitrogen input in Korea was 1,194.5 × 10³ tons N/year. Nitrogen discharged into rivers was estimated as 408–422 × 10³ tons N/year, of which 66–71% was diffuse in origin. The estimated diffuse discharges for land uses were estimated as 82 × 10³ tons N/year from agricultural areas, 7 × 10³ tons N/year from forestry and 75 × 10³ tons N/year from urban and industrial areas.     

Quantifying sample biases of inland lake sampling programs in relation to lake surface area and land use/cover

We quantified potential biases associated with lakes monitored using non-probability based sampling by six state agencies in the USA (Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Maine, and New Hampshire). To identify biases, we compared state-monitored lakes to a census population of lakes derived from the National Hydrography Dataset. We then estimated the probability of lakes being sampled using generalized linear mixed models. Our two research questions were: (1) are there systematic differences in lake area and land use/land cover (LULC) surrounding lakes monitored by state agencies when compared to the entire population of lakes? and (2) after controlling for the effects of lake size, does the probability of sampling vary depending on the surrounding LULC features? We examined the biases associated with surrounding LULC because of the established links between LULC and lake water quality. For all states, we found that larger lakes had a higher probability of being sampled compared to smaller lakes. Significant interactions between lake size and LULC prohibit us from drawing conclusions about the main effects of LULC; however, in general lakes that are most likely to be sampled have either high urban use, high agricultural use, high forest cover, or low wetland cover. Our analyses support the assertion that data derived from non-probability-based surveys must be used with caution when attempting to make generalizations to the entire population of interest, and that probability-based surveys are needed to ensure unbiased, accurate estimates of lake status and trends at regional to national scales.