4种营养元素对水华鱼腥藻和四尾栅藻增殖的影响

以水华鱼腥藻和四尾栅藻分别作为蓝藻,绿藻代表藻种,采用均匀设计实验方法(uniform design experimentation,UDE)设计藻类AGP实验。采用通径分析法(Path Analysis,PA)对氮、磷、铁和锰在不同藻种增殖过程中的影响程度进行分析。结果表明,4种营养元素对水华鱼腥藻增殖影响的决策排序为Fe>TN>TP>Mn,微量金属元素铁是影响水华鱼腥藻(蓝藻)增殖的主要因素;对四尾栅藻增殖影响的决策排序为TN>TP>Fe>Mn,常量元素是影响四尾栅藻(绿藻)增殖的主要因素。联合通径分析法和逐步二次方回归分析法(QRA)建立的数学模型,可用于预判藻增殖。     

Decline of traditional rice farming constrains the recovery of the endangered Asian crested ibis (Nipponia nippon)

Traditional agriculture benefits a rich diversity of plants and animals. The winter-flooded rice fields in the Qinling Mountains, China, are the last refuge for the endangered Asian crested ibis (Nipponia nippon), and intensive efforts have been made to protect this anthropogenic habitat. Analyses of multi-temporal satellite data indicate that winter-flooded rice fields have been continuously reduced across the current range of crested ibis during the past two decades. The rate of loss of these fields in the core-protected areas has unexpectedly increased to a higher level than that in non-protected areas in the past decade. The best fit (R² = 0.87) numerical response model of the crested ibis population shows that a reduction of winter-flooded rice fields decreases population growth and predicts that the population growth will be constrained by the decline of traditional winter-flooded rice fields in the coming decades. Our findings suggest that the decline of traditional rice farming is likely to continue to pose a threat to the long-term survival and recovery of the crested ibis population in China.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0649-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

多重水质评价方法在地下水水质评价中的对比研究—以北京市朝阳区为例

目前地下水水质评价方法众多,选择合适的评价方法对地下水的管理与利用具有重要意义。以北京市朝阳区2020年枯水期采集的地下水水样检测结果为基础,利用改进的层次分析法、单因子指数法和综合污染指数法对地下水水质进行评价,并对比3种方法评价结果的准确性以及存在的不合理之处。结果表明：1）3种方法的水质评价结果差异较大,改进的层次分析法的水质评价结果最优,单因子指数法的评价结果最差,综合污染指数法的评价结果与其他方法的一致性最高;2）在进行水质评价时可优先选择综合污染指数法,单因子指数法适用于水质要求较高或超标污染物少的水体,改进的层次分析法适用于有多种污染物超标的水体;3）为进一步确定3种方法对地下水水质评价结果的准确性,将3种方法的评价结果与可靠性分析结果进行对比,发现改进的层次分析法、单因子指数法和综合污染指数法与可靠性分析的水质评价结果相同的占比分别为90.48%、42.86%、47.62%。因此,在对地下水水质进行综合评价时,可使用改进的层次分析法。

     

MINIMIZING THE IMPACT OF URBANIZATION ON LONG TERM RUNOFF1

Increasing concern about the problems caused by urban sprawl has encouraged development and implementation of smart growth approaches to land use management. One of the goals of smart growth is water resources protection, in particular minimizing the runoff impact of urbanization. To investigate the magnitude of the potential benefits of land use planning for water resources protection, possible runoff impacts of historical and projected urbanization were estimated for two watersheds in Indiana and Michigan using a long term hydrological impact analysis model. An optimization component allowed selection of land use change placements that minimize runoff increase. Optimizing land use change placement would have reduced runoff increase by as much as 4.9 percent from 1973 to 1997 in the Indiana study watershed. For nonsprawl and sprawl scenarios in the Michigan watershed for 1978 to 2040, optimizing land use change placement would have reduced runoff increase by 12.3 percent and 20.5 percent, respectively. The work presented here illustrates both an approach to assessing the magnitude of the impact of smart growth and the significant potential scale of smart growth in moderating runoff changes that result from urbanization. The results of this study have significant implications for urban planning.     

浑河流域鱼类群落特征及其与环境因子的关系

流域水生态调查是对受损的流域水生态系统进行恢复的基础。以浑河流域为例,对全流域62个采样点的鱼类群落进行调查。共采集并鉴定出鱼类34种,隶属于7目10科29属。其中,鲤科鱼类个体数占比最高(88.5%),鳅科次之(6.7%)。依据鱼类群落组成的相似性,利用聚类分析将62个采样点分为3组：组Ⅰ主要分布于浑河上游;组Ⅱ主要分布于浑河中游的各支流;组Ⅲ主要分布于浑河中下游的干流及各支流。指示物种分析结果显示：组Ⅰ指示物种为洛氏鱥、北方条鳅、北方花鳅和中华多刺鱼;组Ⅱ指示物种主要为鲫、麦穗、宽鳍鱲等中度耐污种;组Ⅲ指示物种为餐条。典型对应分析(canonical correspondence analysis,CCA)结果表明：影响浑河流域鱼类群落结构的主要环境因子为海拔、河流等级、悬浮物(SS)浓度、森林用地比例、农业用地比例和总溶解性固体(TDS)浓度。     

中国环境质量拐点:基于EKC的实证判断

促进环境质量改善是"十三五"时期实现绿色发展和最终全面建成小康社会的重要目标和任务。随着经济进入新常态和环境治理政策的强势推进,中国环境质量是否已经跨越峰值和进入持续改善的通道?本文基于环境库兹涅茨曲线这一理论工具,依据环境统计数据和国际经验事实判断中国是否到达环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点和具备促使环境质量持续改善的经济特征。首先,应用中国各省份1998—2013年的面板数据,对人均收入水平与主要大气污染物排放的关系进行回归拟合发现,人均烟粉尘排放自1998年以来持续下降,人均二氧化硫、氮氧化物排放均在"十二五"中前期到达峰值。大部分东部省份已经越过环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点,但环境质量改善仍然缓慢。多数中部省份处于峰值阶段,而西部省份大都处于经济增长与环境质量恶化的矛盾阶段。其次,基于污染物排放的驱动因素框架,将中国当前的经济特征与美、日、韩三国跨越环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点的经验进行比较,结论表明中国目前已基本具备了跨越环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点的经济驱动条件,但是相对滞后的城镇化进程将会导致污染物排放峰值的扁平化和波动性。以主要污染物排放在2014年的基础上削减30%—40%作为环境质量全面改善的转折点判断,中国环境质量将在2025年左右趋于全面改善。最后,为了促进环境质量全面改善,认为应该根据各地区经济发展与环境污染形势的不同,实施差别化环境治理政策。同时积极防范新一轮城镇化过程中的环境风险,进一步强化区域环境污染的协同治理。     

Energy consumption,emissions and economic growth in Bahrain

This study examines the Granger causality relationships between economic growth, energy consumption and emissions, from 1980 to 2007 in Bahrain, controlling for capital and urban population using Toda and Yamamoto’s approach. It was found that there is unilateral causality which runs from urban population, economic growth, capital and energy consumption to environment. Further, we found strong support for causality running from economic growth to energy consumption, emissions and capital. The existence of these linkages suggests that the government of Bahrain may pursue energy efficiency strategies and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth. Additionally, the long run pursuit of high economic growth given sustained increases in energy efficiency may also reduce CO₂ emissions intensity per unit of her GDP.     

矿业权集聚、经济增长与区域贫困减缓

本文基于泰尔指数法,计算并测度了中国资源富集区的城乡收入差距与行业(矿业)收入差距,然后结合矿业权集聚度的测度结果和中国资源税改革的变动特征,建立面板数据回归模型,考察了2004—2014年中国资源富集区矿业权集聚与经济增长、贫困减缓的长期关系。本文的主要结论是:资源税对矿业权集聚水平和矿业经济增长具有正向刺激作用,但矿业经济增长并不利于地区经济的整体改进,也不利于区域贫困减缓。资源税低水平征收对"资源诅咒"和"区域贫困"具有传导效应,进而对资源富集区的贫困减缓形成阻滞作用。另外,矿业权集聚对地区贫困的影响存在异质性,异质性揭示了区域资源性收益分配存在的差异。短期来看,矿业权集聚使中央企业惠及更多,是引致"富饶中的贫困"怪圈的重要原因;但长期来看,随着矿业权集聚度的提升,地方政府获得的累积性资源性收益不断上升,渐次增强了地方政府通过社会保障支出实施收入调节的能力,总体上有利于区域贫困的减缓。因此,为实现资源富集区的精准扶贫,资源主管部门在制定减贫措施前,应根据不同区域特点区别对待,短期内应着力于调整资源性收益分配机制,赋予地方更多资源性收益,并加大对社会的保障性支出;长期来看,应探索建立合理有效的资源税体制,促进经济增长方式的多样化,并鼓励科技创新,进一步提高社会群体的受教育程度,从根本上改变区域贫困产生的内生性环境和外生性环境。     

钢桁架-钢筋混凝土管柱结构风参数试验研究

结构下部空旷,上部挡风墙承担的风荷载对结构下部产生较大作用。我国规范没有对该类结构及其顶部透气性A型架的风参数作具体规定。为解决工程设计中风参数取值问题,进行了刚性模型风洞试验研究,得到了不同工况下挡风墙、A型架、管柱的体型系数及挡风墙的阵风系数,分析了风机、周围建筑物、风向角对相关风参数的影响,给出了相关参数的建议值。并将试验结果与数值模拟计算结果进行了对比分析,结果表明,二者吻合较好,研究结果为工程设计提供了基础资料,可供同类工程参考。