石化企业应急救援能力评估研究

随着应急能力建设逐步引起我国各行各业的重视,越来越多的石化企业己经开始加大对应急能力建设工作的力度,以尽可能的减少生产事故所带来的损失。作为石化企业应急能力建设的重要组成部分,石化企业生产事故应急救援能力的评价研究具有十分重要的理论和实践意义。本文首先对石化企业生产及事故特点和石化企业应急能力进行了详细的剖析,初步构建了石化企业生产事故应急能力评价指标体系。进而根据物元可拓性理论,结合石化企业的实际情况,运用可拓评判方法建立石化企业应急救援能力综合评判的模型,给出了评价步骤,最终确定企业的生产事故应急能力等级,从而对企业持续改进应急能力建设提供一定的参考。研究结果表明,该方法可应用于多层次的工程风险评价问题,从而为石化工程项目风险管理提供了一种有效的分析方法。     

堆积体边坡渐进性破坏的随机模型

为精确模拟堆积体边坡变形破坏过程,根据堆积体所固有的非连续性、非均质性、各向异性等特点,以及边坡变形破坏的渐进性特征,采用改进的有限单元法(FEM)对堆积体边坡进行模拟.考虑堆积体边坡从连续位移函数到不连续位移函数的突变.破裂发生前,用连续位移函数进行计算;破裂发生后,引入不连续位移函数.研究结果表明,破裂面上不同点的安全系数(FOS)是不同的,但都随着破坏过程而降低.同时,可以得出不同非均匀程度下安全系数的概率分布.     

吊水壶尾矿坝渗流特性三维有限元分析

本文结合工程实例,以吊水壶尾矿坝为背景,建立现状尾矿坝三维模型,利用三维有限元法反演分析现状尾矿坝的渗流场,将计算结果与勘察的浸润面对比分析,验证模型的可靠性和合理性。基于此模型建立加高后的尾矿坝三维模型,计算正常蓄水位和设计洪水位两种工况下的渗流场,分析坝体浸润面埋深、滩长、渗流坡降等,结果表明,不设排渗措施时,尾矿坝干滩长度、浸润面埋深均能满足规范要求,而且尖流性态良好,满足渗透稳定。提出该尾矿坎可通过加高工程来进行渗流控制的建议。     

基于物元分析法的古建筑火灾风险评价

古建筑火灾风险评估是突发事件应对中"关口前移"的体现,以物元分析法为基础提出了古建筑火灾风险评价的物元模型,并对某世界名镇内古建筑进行风险评估。首先,在火灾风险影响因素的事故树分析基础上,选取能够反映古建筑火灾风险特性的51个指标作为评价指标体系;其次,建立古建筑火灾风险评价的物元模型;最后,根据实地调研数据进行标准化赋值,实现对古建筑火灾风险的定量化评价,通过评价方法对比验证了模型有效性和先进性。结果表明,所评价建筑的总体关联度系数为-0.248,四项"优秀"级别指标关联度分别为-0.129、-0.183、-0.211、-0.216,两项"较差"级别指标关联度为0.025、-0.016,表明所评价建筑火灾风险等级的显性结果为"优秀"级别,但隐性结果为"良好+"级别,火灾风险等级潜在提升能力较强。     

基于谐波沉降的管道力学分析*

为避免地面沉降引发的油气管道事故,研究沉降管道的力学特性,提出基于谐波沉降的管道力学评估方法。以中国石化某沉降管道为研究对象,通过现场测量的方法获得沉降区管道高程,利用傅里叶级数展开对不均匀沉降数据进行处理分析,获得管道谐波沉降的拟合函数。建立ANSYS有限元模型,采用土弹簧模型模拟非沉降区管道与土体相互作用关系,将谐波沉降作为位移载荷施加到沉降区管道,对含内压管道的沉降进行数值模拟,分析其应力、应变分布规律。结果表明:沉降与非沉降交界处管道应变及应力最大,基于应变的评估准则,管道运行状态为安全,为应急响应提供支撑。     

基于组合权物元分析模型的地下水水质评价

针对以往地下水水质评价中多采用单一权重法确定各评价指标权重的不足,提出基于主客观组合权重的权重计算模式,并运用权重风险度计算公式选出相对合适的组合权重,再与物元分析理念相结合,构建用于评价地下水水质的组合权物元分析模型。应用该模型对阜新新邱露天煤矿排土场淋溶水的地下水污染区的12个监测点水质进行综合评价。结果表明:研究区的1#～5#监测点水质均达到Ⅱ级以上,符合国家饮用水标准要求;6#～12#监测点水质均受到不同程度的污染,已不能饮用。评价结论与灰色关联分析法和模糊综合评价法所得结论基本一致。     

基于可拓物元模型的安全经济开采评价指标体系的构建及应用

首先根据安全经济开采的内涵,建立以人员安全、设施设备安全、开采环境安全、安全投资和安全管理为主要制约因素的安全经济开采评价模型,并运用改进的层次分析法确定人员可靠度对安全经济开采水平影响最大,开采环境可靠度影响最小。其次,采用函数拟合法、专家打分法、标准化打分法量化安全经济开采水平指标,并将安全经济开采水平划分为3个等级。最后,运用可拓物元模型方法,得出某铁矿安全经济开采水平为二级,无重大经济损失,与实际吻合。     

移动式环保公厕车防震抗风安全性研究

移动式环保公厕车工作地点范围广、环境复杂,且没有地基固定,要求其具有特别高的抗地震能力、抗风载变形能力。利用有限元仿真的方法,研究了移动式环保公厕车在不同地震载荷、风力载荷条件下的变形和应力状况,分析了地震载荷和风力载荷对移动式环保公厕车破坏程度和破坏机理,对比了单一载荷作用与复合载荷作用的区别,从而为移动式环保公厕车使用环境的选择、安全检查的合理安排等提供有力的参考依据。     

MODEL FOR PREDICTING TRANSPORT OF PESTICIDES AND THEIR METABOLITES IN THE UNSATURATED ZONE1

ABSTRACT: A finite element model based on Galerkin's upstream weighted residual technique was developed to predict the simultaneous convective-dispersion transport and transformations of pesticides and their metabolites in the unsaturated zone. Transformations of the parent compound and its metabolites were assumed to be first-order reactions for oxidation and hydrolysis, while adsorption of the pesticide species (parent compound and metabolites) to the soil components was assumed to be represented by a linear equilibrium (Freundlich type) isotherm. Volatilization and plant root uptake of pesticides in the solution phase were neglected in the analysis. The proposed model was used to simulate the transport and transformation of aldicarb and its metabolites, aldicarb sulfoxide and aldicarb sulfone, in the soil profile. Several examples are used to demonstrate the accuracy, validity, and applicability of the proposed model. Simulated results indicate that the proposed model can potentially be used to estimate the mass flux of water, and pesticide and pesticide metabolite concentrations in the subsurface environment. However, further verification of the model against actual field data is needed to fully demonstrate the model's potential.     

NUMERICAL MODELING OF SALTWATER INTRUSION IN THE NORTHERN GUAM LENS1

ABSTRACT This paper deals with the application of a two-dimensional, saltwater intrusion model to the aquifer in Northern Guam. The model used finite element theory and the Galerkin, weighted-residual technique as its basis. The Northern Guam lens was discretized into 299 linear, triangular elements and 189 nodes. The model was calibrated using 1978 hydrologic data. The output of the model was compared with measured water levels in six observation wells. The calibrated values of permeability and porosity were then used to verify the model using 1979 data. A calibrated and verified model can be used to make an infinite variety of management and planning studies. In this study, three applications are provided that would be considered typical management runs. Steady state runs were made to compare the four conditions of no pumping, 1978 pumping levels, twice 1978 pumping levels, and five times 1978 pumping levels. The water levels due to these conditions are shown in plan and in cross sections of the aquifer. The effect of zero recharge to the aquifer is next demonstrated for the pumping levels existing during 1978. The final run shows how long the aquifer takes to reach steady state when the pumping rate is increased from the 1978 pumping level to twice that value. The program can be used for numerous other studies for management and planning purposes.