Analysis of Extreme Summer Rainfall Using Climate Teleconnections and Typhoon Characteristics in South Korea1

Abstract: It is now widely acknowledged that climate variability modulates the frequency of extreme hydrological events. Traditional methodologies for hydrologic frequency analysis are not devised to account for variation in the exogenous teleconnections. Flood frequency analysis is further plagued by the assumptions of stationary in the causal structure as well as ergodicity. Here, we propose a dynamical hierarchical Bayesian analysis to account for exogenous forcing that govern the summer season rainfall. The precursors for Korean summer rainfall at different frequencies are identified utilizing wavelet and independent component analyses. The sea surface temperatures, the ensemble of rainfall predictions by General Circulation Model, in addition to the typhoon attributes were found to have direct correlation with extreme rainfall events and were used as inputs to the logistic regression model. The model parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the resulting posterior distributions associated with individual inputs are analyzed to advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal impact of the teleconnections. Eight rainfall stations throughout Korea are considered in this analysis. We demonstrate that the probability of occurrence of extreme events could be successfully projected at a 90% rate of correct classification of extreme events.     

“6．26”呼中夏季雷击山火扑救方法及体会

分析了“6．26”呼中夏季雷击山火的特点、规律,结合扑救工作分析了灭火方法和技术,提出了个人的体会和建议。     

开封市城区夏季噪声污染评价及防治措施

对开封市城区夏季噪声进行了监测,发现开封城区区域噪声污染严重,昼间57％的区域处在“重度污染”,夜间较昼间好,交通道路噪声所有监测路段均超标,尤其在交通主干道上污染严重,昼间有40个测点超标10dB以上。在开封城区噪声现状分析的基础上,运用G1S软件Mapinfo6．0绘制出开封市城区夏季噪声评价图,结果表明：开封市城区区域噪声污染南部比北部严重,交通噪声分布有城区向城市边缘逐渐恶化的趋势,且交通噪声与区域噪声没有明显的相关性。这主要是由于城市规划不合理、城市道路过窄、路况不好以及城市交通管理落后等原因造成的。最后提出了开封噪声污染防治的一些措施。     

稳定同位素用于闽南夏季云下洗脱过程的研究

使用稳定同位素方法对闽南夏季云下洗脱过程进行研究;对闽南夏季降水中稳定同位素丰度比进行了测试．氢氧同位素丰度比分析发现,降水氢氧同位素丰度比存在较大分馏,但同一降水云系中δＤ／δ１８Ｏ值是稳定的,可以作为判别降水来源的特征量．对降水中硫同位素丰度比分析发现,当大气中气溶胶和气体硫同位素均呈负值时,降水中富集３４Ｓ,反之相反．并使用稳定同位素平衡模型估算事件型降水云下洗脱过程的作用,厦门前期降水云中、云下洗脱硫的比例分别为１９．５％和８０．５％,中期降水云中、云下洗脱硫的比例分别为３２．３％和５７．７％,后期降水云中、云下洗脱硫的比例分别为５３％和４７％,漳州云中,云下洗脱比例接近     

First in situ UV profile across the UTLS accompanied by ozone measurement over the Tibetan Plateau

Ultraviolet radiation (UV) and ozone can greatly affect human health and the Earth's ecological environment. By deploying a UV radiometer aboard a stratospheric balloon released at Qaidam (QDM) during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) period in 2019, we provided in situ measurement of the UV profiles from the surface to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), China, for the first time. Based on two in situ UV profiles accompanied by four ozonesonde measurements, this study exhibited detailed variations of downwelling UV and vertical ozone distributions over the TP during the ASM period. The UV differences between the surface and stratospheric balloon flight altitudes were 16.7, 15.8, 12.6 and 18.0 Wm^?2 during the four ozonesonde launches. Due to the diurnal variations in photochemical production and the stratosphere-troposphere exchange, the integrated ozone columns below 30 km ranged from 184.4 to 221.6 DU from four ozonesonde measurements. A positive correlation between UV attenuation and ozone column was exhibited under low cloud cover and clear sky conditions. The results of this study are expected to improve our understanding of UV and ozone properties, as well as their potential effects on terrestrial ecosystems and living environments over this significant plateau.     

中国东部AOD等级变化及与东亚夏季风的联系

利用2000年3月～2017年1月Terra卫星反演的最新版本C06的MODIS气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）、NCEP fnl全球业务分析数据、CMAP降水、CERES SYN1deg Ed4月平均资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,依据区域平均AOD距平的显著年际变化特征,将历年AOD划分为5个不同的污染等级,并探讨了不同污染等级的局地成因及其与季风环流的联系.结果表明,夏季中国东部地区AOD异常偏大与地面风速小、中高层季风环流系统不利于气溶胶扩散有关.气溶胶污染最重（最轻）时,气溶胶与到达地面的太阳短波辐射、地面气温、风速及降水存在密切联系;在其他污染等级下,除了与到达地面的短波辐射有密切关系外,与其他量的联系并不明显.气溶胶污染严重时,到达地面的太阳短波辐射相对减小,地面气温异常偏低,低层大气冷却,地面风速减小,地面降水呈现南多北少的变化特征;反之,气溶胶污染较轻时,到达地面的太阳短波辐射相对增加,地面气温异常偏高,低层大气加热,地面风速增大,地面降水呈现南少北多的变化特征.     

湖北省60年代以来平均气温变化趋势初探

计算了湖北省７２个气象台年,季,月平均气温在１９６１－１９９５年间的气候倾向率,分析其时空分布特征发现：１）全省大部春季,秋季,年的ｂ值小,夏屯,冬季的ｂ值;２）冬季或１２－２、４月的ｂ值多为正,夏季或３、６－８月的ｂ值为多负,且有一定显著程度;３）夏季变凉冬季变暖,春季前后的变化大,秋季前后变化小;（４）升温中心多在江汉平原和鄂东南,降温中心多在鄂西山区尤其是鄂西北;５）大、中城市的相对热岛效应     

Power system planning with emission constraints: Effects of CCS retrofitting

Today, the world's energy needs are still supplied mainly from fossil fuel based resources. This is true for electricity generation as well, thus making the power sector responsible for 45% of greenhouse gas emissions. The present climate crisis has made it necessary to minimise emissions in power generation, with low-carbon energy sources taking on greater significance in recent years. However, most low-carbon sources have inherent problems, like intermittency and high capital expenditure. A suitable alternative is carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology which allows continued fossil fuel-based electricity generation at much lower rates of emission. Two approaches are possible in the deployment of CCS technology. The first is to introduce new power plants equipped for carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture, while systematically shutting down existing coal power plants. Another is to retrofit existing power plants for CO₂ capture. These approaches are compared in this work. The study shows that allowing CCS retrofitting of existing power plants can reduce the overall cost requirement significantly. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is also done to study the effect of nuclear energy on the overall energy mix.     

2015/2016年海洋和大气环流异常对中国夏季降水的影响

利用1981年1月-2016年8月中国160个气象站降水量资料和NCEP/NCAR资料,对比分析了2015/2016年的主要海洋和大气环流异常及其对夏季降水的影响。结果表明：1）2015和2016年夏季降水异常分布有着明显的差异。2015年夏季降水呈南多北少特点;2016年夏季降水明显增多,尤其是北方地区,且呈现经向型分布。2）热带印度洋-太平洋海温状况监测显示,2015年海温异常表现为El Niño发展年、热带印度洋全区一致模态海温偏暖、印度洋偶极子正位相;2016年海温异常表现为El Niño结束年、热带印度洋全区一致模态海温偏暖、印度洋偶极子负位相。3）2015年,受热带印度洋-太平洋海温异常影响,使得夏季西太平洋副高偏强、偏南,再配合中高纬冷空气活跃,西风急流轴位置偏南,导致我国降水北少南多。4）2016年,受El Niño衰减、印度洋偶极子负位相影响,副高偏北;叠加印度洋海温偏暖的“充电器”效应,副高偏强;同时冷空气偏北偏弱,西风急流轴位置偏北,导致长江中下游及以北区域降水偏多。     

Immobilisation of manganese,cobalt and nickel by deep-sea-sediment microbial communities

Box core samples BC26 and BC36 from geologically different settings were examined to test the hypothesis that autochthonous microbial communities from polymetallic-nodule-rich Central Indian Basin sediments actively participate in immobilising metal ions. The bottom water dissolved oxygen concentration was reported to be 4.2–4.3 mL·L^?1 in the northern siliceous ooze (BC26) and 4.1–4.2 mL·L^?1 in the southern pelagic red clay (BC36); the sedimentation rates for these regions were 0.834 and 0.041 cm·kyr^?1, respectively. An onboard experiment, conducted under oxic and sub-oxic conditions with 100 μmol of Mn, Co and Ni, showed that microbial immobilisation under sub-oxic conditions was higher than in azide-treated controls in BC26 for Mn, Co and Ni at 30, 2 and 4 cm below sea floor (bsf), respectively, after 45 days. The trend in immobilisation was BC 26>BC 36, Co>Mn>Ni under oxic conditions and Mn>Co>Ni under sub-oxic conditions. The depth of maximum immobilisation for Co in BC26 under sub-oxic conditions coincided with the yield of cultured Co-tolerant bacteria and Ni only with organic carbon at 4 cm bsf. This study demonstrates that the organic carbon content and bioavailable metal concentrations in sediments regulate microbial participation in metal immobilisation.