Estimating dyad association probability under imperfect and heterogeneous detection

In animal behaviour studies, association indices estimate the proportion of time two individuals (i.e. a dyad) spend in association. In terms of dyads, all association indices can be interpreted as estimators of the probability that a dyad is associated. However, traditional indices rely on the assumptions that the probability to detect a particular individual (p) is either approximately one and/or homogeneous between associated and not associated individuals. Based on marked individuals we develop a likelihood based model to estimate the probability a dyad is associated (ψ) accounting for p < 1 and possibly varying between associated and not associated individuals. The proposed likelihood based model allows for both individual and dyadic missing observations. In addition, the model can easily be extended to incorporate covariate information for modeling p and ψ. A simulation study showed that the likelihood based model approach yield reasonably unbiased estimates, even for low and heterogeneous individual detection probabilities, while, in contrast, traditional indices showed moderate to strong biases. The application of the proposed approach is illustrated using a real data set collected from a population of Commerson's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus commersonii) in Patagonia Argentina. Finally, we discuss possible extensions of the proposed model and its applicability in animal behaviour and ecological studies.     

污染场地调查与评估信息系统设计

为了管理和风险评估污染场地,结合调查和评价应用中的管理工作流程,对污染场地数据库的设计方案进行了分析,其中包括数据标准的制定、数据库总体结构设计和数据表设计等;同时具体介绍了调查与评估信息系统的设计方案,包括系统设计目标、总体结构和功能模块设计等内容,为系统的构建进一步提供技术支持.     

基于GIS的地震构造信息系统

本文讨论了地震构造信息系统的建造和信息管理。系统是以GIS工具软件ARC/INFO为开发平台建造的,原始资料复盖华北地区的大部,约北纬35～41度,东经109～120度。系统包括活动断裂、破坏性地震、仪器记录地震等信息。本文深入研究了GIS做为信息管理工具的能力,探讨了GIS在地震区划图编制中可能起到的作用。系统能使地震危险分析中信息管理方式、信息管理效率和利用率有质的改进,在某种程度上减小资料利用不充分和人为任意性引起的不确定性。作为一种探索,本文进行了一系列的空间操作和分析,以研究空间特征之间的相关性,并产生新的数据集合。     

Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework

Individual-based models (IBMs) have been improved in quality and reliability in recent years with an approach called pattern-oriented modelling (POM). POM proposes guidelines to develop models reproducing multiple patterns observed on the field and to test systematically how well the IBMs reproduce them. POM studies used generally traditional methods of goodness of fit such as the sum of squares evaluation or ad hoc comparisons of fitting errors and variations. Model selection, however, can be a rigorous statistical approach based on information theory and information criteria such as the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the deviance information criterion (DIC). So far, it has not been tried to link POM to these rigorous techniques. The main problems to achieve that are: (a) the difficulty to have likelihood functions for IBMs’ parameters and (b) the possibility to obtain posterior distributions of IBMs’ parameters given the patterns to reproduce. In a first part, this paper answers problem (a) by proposing and explaining how to calculate a deviance measure (POMDEV) for models developed in a context of POM. And while answering the second problem, a second part of the paper proposes an information criterion for model selection in a POM context (the pattern-oriented modelling information criterion: POMIC). This criterion does not yet have the same theoretical foundation as, e.g., AIC, but uses formal analogies to the DIC. In a third part POMIC is tested with a modelling exercise. This exercise shows the potential of POMIC to use multiple patterns for selecting among multiple potential submodels and eventually select the most parsimonious and well fitting model version. We conclude that POMIC, although being a heuristically derived approach, can greatly improve the POM framework.     

NEAR‐STREAM LANDUSE EFFECTS ON STREAMWATER NUTRIENT DISTRIBUTION IN AN URBANIZING WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: We investigated spatial and temporal relationships among surface and subsurface watershed attributes and stream nutrient concentrations in urbanizing Johnson Creek watershed in northern Oregon. We sampled stream water at eight urban and five nonurban locations from March 1998 through December 1999. We sampled eight wells distributed over the two primary aquifers in the watershed. Using a Geographic Information System (GIS), percentages of landuse attributes within a radius of 30, 91, and 152 m from each sample site were quantified. We analyzed relationships between (1) nutrient concentrations and percentage cover of different landuse attributes, and (2) nutrient concentrations and underlying hydrologic units. We did not find a significant relationship between ground water chemistry and stream water chemistry. We found elevated levels of phosphorus (P) concentrations correlated with urban landuse, while higher nitrogen (N) concentrations were correlated with nonurban (primarily agricultural) landuse. We concluded that elevated levels of N in nonurban areas of Johnson Creek watershed were associated with agricultural practices. We further concluded that urban development factors such as increases in storm drains, dry wells, and impermeable surfaces may be responsible for higher input of P to the stream in urbanizing areas of the Johnson Creek watershed.     

青藏铁路景观视觉管理系统研究

铁路建设需要设置取(弃)土场、砂石料点、施工营地等工程场地,这些工程场地如果设计不合理,必将对沿线景观造成破坏,进而对视觉产生强烈的冲击。该文参考美国林务局的“视觉管理系统(VisualManagementSystem,VMS)”和美国土地管理局的“视觉管理(VisualResourcesMana-gement,VRM)”,利用遥感(RS)和地理信息系统(GIS)技术,结合新建青藏铁路沿线景观特点和工程场地的位置、面积、所处的坡度、相对于铁路的距离、沿铁路方向的长度以及相对于本底景观的对比度,建立了新建青藏铁路沿线的景观视觉管理系统,定量分析和评价了铁路建设工程可能对高原景观带来的冲击,并为修改和重新设计工程场地提出了指导性建议。     

9种硝基苯对鱼肝微粒体EROD活性的影响

混合功能氧化酶系(mixed function oxidase,MFO)中的敏感指标,7-乙氧基-异吩唑酮-脱乙基酶(7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase,EROD)已作为生物标志物,应用于生态毒理学研究领域.笔者以苯并(a)芘作为阳性对照,采用鲤鱼肝脏体外直接染毒测定EROD的方法,分析了9种硝基苯对EROD活性的诱导影响.      

Monitoring and adaptive management: resolving social and organisational issues to improve information sharing in natural resource management

Adaptive, or 'learning by doing', approaches are often advocated as a means of providing increased understanding within natural resource management. However, a number of organisational and social issues need to be resolved if these approaches are to be used successfully. A case study in the South Island high country of New Zealand is used to review what is needed to support an ongoing community-based monitoring and adaptive management programme. First, the case study is described, paying attention to the social context of the resource management problem. The results of a workshop that explored this problem are then outlined, along with a proposed information flow suggested by participants. Requirements for future steps to resolve these problems (such as information protocols and a multi-stakeholder information system) are discussed. Finally, some broad lessons are drawn from this exercise that could help others developing similar approaches.     

INTEGRATING DEMOGRAPHIC AND LANDSAT (TM) DATA AT A WATERSHED SCALE1

ABSTRACT: Recurrent calls for integrated resource management urge that an understanding of human activities and populations be incorporated into natural resource research, management, and protection efforts. In this paper, we hypothesize that watersheds can be a valuable geography for organizing an inquiry into the relationship between humans and the environment, and we present a framework for conducting such efforts. The framework is grounded in the emerging field of landscape ecology and incorporates demographic theory and data. Demography has been advanced by technological capabilities associated with the 1990 Census. Employing Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, we couple Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) land cover data with census‐derived housing density data to demonstrate the operation of our framework and its utility for better understanding human‐landscape interactions. In our investigation of the Kickapoo Watershed and two sub‐ watersheds, located in southwestern Wisconsin, we identify relationships between landscape composition and the distribution and social structure of human populations. Our findings offer insight into the interplay between people and biophysical systems.     

环境会计—21世纪会计界的新课题

随着可持续发展经济战略目标的实施,环境问题受到越来越多的重视,会讨如何在环境管理中发挥其作用,向有关的信息使用者提供有用的信息,这便是环境会计所研究的内容。