2017年华北平原采暖季和非采暖季道路PM10污染特征和健康风险评估——以济南市为例

由于污染程度较重和其所携带的大量毒性成分,大气颗粒物对人体健康具有重要影响。根据济南市51个道路颗粒物监测点PM₁₀数据,讨论了采暖季和非采暖季道路PM₁₀的浓度水平和健康风险。结果表明：（1）道路PM₁₀的平均浓度是城市背景站点的1.5倍,道路PM₁₀浓度水平主要受车流量和道路施工活动的影响。由于燃煤量的增加,采暖季的PM₁₀平均浓度是非采暖季的1.3倍。（2）从空间变化来看,这些道路站点可以分为三类,其中第二类由于受建筑活动和交通源影响,PM₁₀浓度最高,第一类由于具有绿化带和好的周围环境,PM₁₀浓度最低。（3）从时间变化来看,在非采暖季,周六浓度最高,周二浓度最低;在采暖季,周四浓度最高,周六和周二浓度最低。PM₁₀较高浓度出现在早晚,与交通源密切相关。（4）除了非采暖季PM₁₀对成年人没有健康风险,其他情况下,PM₁₀均有健康风险。     

济南市排污权交易体系设计研究

济南市作为山东省经济文化中心,多年来受传统工业影响,生态环境与经济发展的矛盾日益突出.构建排污权交易体系,调配总量控制下有限的排污指标为发展留出余量,已成创新环保机制、促进生态发展的迫切需求.通过梳理济南市排污交易现状,分析排污权交易实施的必要性,根据国家政策要求及试点城市经验,设计了在总量控制下由政府主导和市场调控相结合的排污权交易体系,并探讨了排污权交易实施后的经济效益及面临问题.     

城市化对济南市汛期降雨特征的影响

在介绍济南市城市化发展水平及暴雨特性的基础上,选用济南市黄台桥、燕子山、东红庙、吴家铺和刘家庄雨量站1977-2007年汛期降雨资料,通过趋势线、距平统计、双累积曲线等方法,对济南市区汛期降雨量进行了统计分析,并对济南市城区、郊区的降雨时空特征进行对比研究。研究结果表明,城区多年汛期降雨量表现出较强的波动性,但整体上升趋势较为明显,尤其是改革开放早期的降雨量增长较为迅速。城市化对济南城区产生了较为明显的雨岛效应,城区比郊区降雨量增加约10%。城市化对降雨的频次以及雨型均造成了较大的影响,增加了各种降雨强度等级的降雨机率,城区比郊区的降雨机率增加10%以上,特别是暴雨以上的降雨场次增加了22%。     

基于3S的济南湿地资源调查及碳汇功能研究

采用RS、GIS和GPS技术对2008年济南市TM卫星假彩色数字影像进行解译,并利用GPS仪进行了野外考察验证,现场调查了济南市湿地生物多样性,获取了较为全面、完整和系统的济南市湿地资源信息,建立了全市湿地资源数据库并进行了济南市不同湿地类型碳汇功能的初步研究。结果表明,济南市湿地总面积为327.6 km2,其中天然湿地面积为258.3 km2,占济南市湿地面积的78.85%,济南市湿地面积比全国、山东省湿地面积分别高出0.4%、3.1%,主要分布在济南境内的黄河两岸和商河等区县;济南市湿地总碳储量为747万t,约占济南市整个生态系统碳汇的8.9%,与全球湿地总碳储量的比例基本相当,2008年碳增量为32万t,其中沼泽湿地碳储量和碳增量均最大,分别为541万t和27万t,分别占济南市湿地资源的84.4%和72.4%。     

Residents' Willingness to Pay for Improving Air Quality in Jinan,China

Abstract

Along with the progress of urbanization and environmental deterioration, residents' desire for improved air quality is increasing. In order to quantify an individual's willingness-to-pay (WTP) for improved air quality in Jinan of eastern China, a contingent valuation method (CVM) was employed. A sample of 1,500 residents was chosen on the basis of multistage sampling methods with face-to-face interviews by using a series of hypothetical, open-ended scenario questions which were designed to elicit the respondents' WTP. Results showed that 59.7% of respondents were able to express their WTP and the mean WTP is 100 Chinese Yuan (CNY) per person per year. A probit model on the probability of a positive WTP and a regression model were developed to find the relationship between endogenous variables and WTP. Most parameters in the econometric analysis had the expected sign. Annual household income and expenditure on treating respiratory diseases significantly influence WTP. The rates of positive WTP and the monetary amount are larger for men than for women. Results also showed that people who lived in more polluted areas were willing to pay more for clean air. Unlike developed countries, clean air may only be considered as a public good in China in that more than 40% of respondents had no incentive to bear the costs of attempting to achieve better air quality, which indicates the relatively low environmental consciousness.     

A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Growth: A Case Study for Jinan Municipality,China

Abstract

China is experiencing a process of rapid industrialization and urbanization at the cost of agricultural land and environment, particularly in the costal areas. This study takes Jinan as a case presenting a time-series analysis of urban land expansion from 313 to 2003. The results show that the urban expansion of Jinan city mainly took place in the last 100 years, especially after the economic reform in 1978. Social development and economic growth, urban population growth and migration policies were factors driving the urban land expansion. Urban sprawl resulted in a disappearance of wetlands and a great loss of agricultural land, and over-pumping of ground water that led to disappearance of the city's feature, namely “the city of springs”.     

Analysis of the Capacity of Wellspring Conservation in Limestone Areas of Jinan

Abstract

Spring water in the city of Jinan comes from the limestone areas. Understanding the capacity of wellspring conservation is a critical point to resume the perennial spewing of the spring water. The vegetation, soil, and other natural and human aspects related to the conservation are studied by using the methods of geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing (RS), and field investigation. In the end, suggestions for administration and planning as well as countermeasures are put forward.     

区域开发生态影响评价方法及应用

建立一套系统的区域生态影响评价方法，对于区域环评和环境的可持续发展具有重要的意义。以济南舜湖社区区域开发为例，建立和应用由生态指标法、图形叠图法、景观生态学方法构成的方法体系，对舜湖社区区域开发生态环境影响进行了评价，并提出生态保护和建设的具体措施。结果表明，3者构成的方法体系，能较全面的反映生态环境质量现状，预测生态环境影响，有较为广泛的应用前景。     

基于Holt-Winters模型的济南泉域地下水资源保护研究

以济南名泉趵突泉历年的地下水位为研究对象,对2012年5月至2017年11月趵突泉地下水位波动规律进行分析,评价保泉形势,探索保泉供水的有效措施。通过模型的比选,最终确定利用HoltWinters指数平滑加法模型,从时间序列的角度分析预测趵突泉地下水位的变化趋势,并计算出了模型的拟合优度指标和拟合统计量。决定系数R2值为0.897,平稳的R2值为0.627,数值均较大且其余各项拟合优度指标均较好,说明模型的拟合效果整体精度较高。利用模型对2018年趵突泉的地下水位进行了预测并给出了预测值95%的置信区间,预测年平均水位为27.814 m,泉水位波动的峰值为28.291 m、谷值为27.329 m且谷值将出现于2018年的6月份,为近6年来的最低水位值,低于27.6 m的保泉红色警戒线,接近27.01 m的泉水停喷线。预测结果表明:2018年趵突泉将存在潜在停喷的危机,济南市的保泉任务依然严峻。为争取泉水持续喷涌,在此基础上提出了科学保泉建议和节水保泉措施,为济南市评判、预测、调整水系及地下水开采布局提供科学依据。     

济南市环境空气中TSP和PM10来源解析研究

于1999—2000年在济南市5个采样点分别采集了环境空气中的总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)和可吸入颗粒物(PM₁₀),用化学质量平衡(CMB)受体模型和二重源解析技术解析了TSP和PM₁₀的来源。结果表明,各主要源类对TSP的贡献率依次为:扬尘34%,煤烟尘25%,土壤风沙尘18%,机动车尾气尘6%,建筑水泥尘2%,其他15%;对PM₁₀的贡献率依次为:扬尘30%,煤烟尘27%,土壤风沙尘15%,机动车尾气尘9%,建筑水泥尘3%,其他16%。