影响系数矩阵在河流水质规划中的应用

河流水质规划中常常要用水质数学模型来模拟水体的水质、刻划岸边污染带、对水质进行预测，并结合其它模型对污染物排放进行总量控制，以及对污染方案进行水质验证。由于水质数学模型的单向性（即数据只能从输入流向输出），在实际工作中当需要逆计算时（如计算水环境容量等）往往采取试算法，工作量较大。本文介绍的影响系数矩阵法可以方便快捷地完成上述各项工作。此法在中英国际合作项目“长江、嘉陵江水污染控制规划研究”中已采用，效果较好。     

Numerical integration of chemical ODE problems arising in air pollution models

The numerical treatment of a regional air pollution model (such models are, as a rule, described mathematically by systems of partial differential equations) leads to the solution of very large computational problems. The chemical submodel of an air pollution model is normally the most timeconsuming part of the computational work. The application of appropriate discretization and splitting procedures reduces the chemical submodel to a large number of relatively small ODE systems (one such system per gridpoint). In the process of searching for efficient numerical algorithms for the chemical submodels one can carry out experiments by using only one such ODE system in order to facilitate the work. This approach has been used in connection with a particular chemical scheme, the condensed CBM IV scheme, which is used in several large air pollution models. Six integration algorithms have been tested on a set of typical scenarios (consisting of different starting concentrations and/or of different values of the emissions). The advantages and the disadvantages of the algorithms tested are discussed. The final decision about the most efficient algorithm, among the algorithms tested, should be made after a second series of experiments. The coupling of the chemical process with the transport of air pollution (on, at least, a twodimensional domain) together with the application of highspeed computers has to be studied in the second series of experiments, which will be performed in a subsequent paper.     

吸波结构聚氨酯泡沫基体材料耐老化性能评估试验设计

目的针对吸波结构的基体材料——一种软质聚氨酯泡沫耐老化性能的考核,设计一种环境适应性试验,确定施加的环境应力和产品老化性能的表征参数。方法通过吸波结构的聚氨酯泡沫材料的特征性能参数分析,根据产品应用要求和预试验结果,确定合适的老化性能的主要表征指标,通过多应力水平试验和方差分析,确定采用的主要加速老化环境应力。结果通过预试验与分析认为,吸波结构用聚氨酯泡沫材料耐老化性能可采用断裂伸长率来作表征,由于防水覆膜能很好地阻隔水汽对聚氨酯材料的影响,采用单温度应力便可以来考核其老化性能。结论针对具有防水覆膜的吸波结构用聚氨酯泡沫材料,采用单温度应力作用下的断裂伸长率变化可以对其耐老化性能进行有效评估。     

基于风险矩阵的旅游景区安全风险评估优化方法研究

为解决风险矩阵法在实际使用过程中常面临的因评估者认知局限性、经验不足等原因造成的风险评估结果矛盾甚至错误的问题,本文提出了一种基于风险矩阵的旅游景区风险评估结果优化方法,通过研究景区安全风险可能性和严重性的影响因素,建立相应的评估指标,从而得出景区突发事件可能性和严重度的相对排序,为风险评估结果的修正提供了依据。     

山岭隧道施工中塌方风险评估模型研究及应用

为评估隧道施工中塌方风险,以确定其可能性及严重程度作为2条主线。由文献调研并结合待评估隧道风险特征、施工现状、工程概况等建立塌方可能性评估指标体系,运用层次分析法(AHP)与多层次模糊综合决策确定塌方风险事件可能性等级,定性指标由专家评判确定对各可能性等级的隶属度,定量指标的隶属度以正态分布作为隶属函数求出;综合考虑多种事故后果类型,选用当量估计法确定塌方风险事件严重程度;最后基于风险矩阵法确定隧道塌方风险等级。将本模型应用于兴隆隧道1号斜井,经评估该斜井塌方风险等级为Ⅲ级,即较大风险,后续施工中须采取有效措施降低风险,减少风险可能导致的损失。     

基体改性抗氧化碳材料的高温氧化性能研究

目的研究ZrB_2-SiC复相组元改性碳材料在1800℃以上氧化气氛中的氧化性能。方法利用感应加热高温氧化测试装置测试抗烧蚀性能,通过SEM,XRD等手段对氧化产物的组成、氧化层的微观结构进行分析。结果ZrB_2-SiC复相组元的引入可以大大降低碳材料的氧化速率,在1800℃和2100℃高温氧化条件下,C-ZrB_2-SiC材料和纯碳材料的氧化动力学均遵循线性规律。结论基体改性抗氧化碳材料具有良好的高温抗氧化性能。     

Si(B)CN 陶瓷及其复合材料评价与应用研究现状

总结了近年来Si(B)CN陶瓷及其复合材料评价与应用研究现状。首先介绍了Si(B)CN陶瓷及其复合材料的制备,而后详细综述了Si(B)CN陶瓷及其复合材料在力学性能、氧化行为、烧蚀行为、疲劳与蠕变性能、环境性能等方面的性能评价,并对其应用现状进行了概述。     

基于博弈论的环保数据质量影响因素分析研究

污染源产排污数据是一切环保工作的基础,确保真实可信具有十分重要的意义.为此,分析了影响污染源产排污数据质量的主要因素:受经济利益驱动的自身因素;受政绩利益驱动的管理因素和受地方保护驱动的政府因素等.在新环保法未得到充分贯彻,排污单位、环保主管部门和地方政府三者违法成本均低于守法成本的条件下,以博奕论为分析工具讨论了三种影响因素产生负面作用的必然性,并根据分析结果针对性地提出了提高数据质量的应对策略.     

A numerical model for drying of spherical object in an indirect type solar dryer and estimating the drying time at different moisture level and air temperature

A numerical model for simultaneous heat and mass transfer was developed for solar drying of spherical objects and the object considered is green peas. Solar collector outlet temperature is assumed as drying chamber temperature and justified through energy balance equations. Assumptions are imposed on heat and mass transfer governing equations without losing the physics of the problem. Discretization is performed by finite difference method with implicit scheme. To generalize, the governing equation and boundary conditions are non-dimensionalized. The set of finite difference equations was solved by Tridiagonal Matrix Algorithm and a computer code in MATLAB was developed to solve them. The drying curves showed two stages of drying, initial, and secondary drying stage. At all drying temperatures and drying time, the center moisture was maximum and it was minimum at the boundary. A percentage of 85.67 surface moisture content and 25.33% center moisture was eliminated in the first 1 hr at 348 K. The product should be dried up to 7.45, 4.74, and 3.74 hr at air drying temperatures of 318, 333, and 348 K respectively, to maintain 10% of the product’s initial moisture content. The result is compared with the experimental result from literature and they are found to be in good agreement.     

Economics of Grassland Conversion to Cropland in the Prairie Pothole Region

Abstract: Much of the remaining grassland, particularly in North America, is privately owned, and its conversion to cultivated cropland is largely driven by economics. An understanding of why landowners convert grassland to cropland could facilitate more effective design of grassland‐conservation programs. We built an empirical model of land‐use change in the Prairie Pothole Region (north‐central United States) to estimate the probability of grassland conversion to alternative agricultural land uses, including cultivated crops. Conversion was largely driven by landscape characteristics and the economic returns of alternative uses. Our estimate of the probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops (1.33% on average from 1979 to 1997) was higher than past estimates (0.4%). Our model also predicted that grassland‐conversion probabilities will increase if agricultural commodity prices continue to follow the trends observed from 2001 to 2006 (0.93% probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops in 2006 to 1.5% in 2011). Thus, nearly 121 million ha (30 million acres) of grassland could be converted by 2011. Conversion probabilities, however, are spatially heterogeneous (range 0.2% to 3%), depending on characteristics of a parcel (e.g., soil quality and economic returns). Grassland parcels with relatively high‐quality land for agricultural production are more likely to be converted to cultivated crops than lower‐quality parcels and are more responsive to changes in the economic returns on alternative agricultural land uses (i.e., conversion probability increases by a larger magnitude for high‐quality parcels when economics returns to alternative uses increase). Our results suggest that grassland conservation programs could be proactively targeted toward high‐risk parcels by anticipating changes in economic returns, such as could occur if a new biofuel processing plant were to be built in an area.