路面预防性养护时机确定方法探讨

介绍了路面预防性养护时机的确定方法 :应用行驶质量指数或破坏指数、基于时间或路况、效益费用评估、生命周期费用分析、决策树或决策矩阵、评分排序方法进行路面预防性养护时机的确定 ;挖掘了目前路面预防性养护时机选取方法中存在的不足。根据路面破坏的复杂性以及目前路面预防性养护时机选取方法的不足 ,提出应对措施 ,路面预防性养护时机研究应该在一个多标准、基于路面性能的基础上进行 ;在路面结构性能良好的情况下 ,基于预防性养护的路面功能性能衰变是进行路面预防性养护时机研究的关键     

General concepts for measuring cumulative impacts on wetland ecosystems

Because environmental impacts accumulate over space and time, analysis is difficult, and we must incorporate the most recent scientifically defensible information and methods into the process. Methods designed to deal specifically with cumulative impacts include checklists of characteristics or processes, matrices of interactions (rated according to their level of importance) between disturbance activities and environmental conditions, nodal networks or pathways that depict probable effects of disturbances, and dynamic system models. These methods have been tested over the past decade and have proven generally successful.Landscape perspectives have emerged as especially helpful in analyzing cumulative effects, and have focused specific attention on questions of spatial and temporal scale, while leading to recognition of the complexity of ecosystem processes in general. An evaluation of several cases studies by the Commission on Life Sciences of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences emphasizes the importance of interactions and cumulative effects, but recognizes that current knowledge of the processes involved is insufficient to make specific recommendations for conceptual frameworks.The conceptual approach suggested by Preston and Bedford (1988) addresses many critical issues, such as the need to define dimensions of scale, and the importance of wetland size, shape, and location in the landscape. This approach and similar ones must be tested and evaluated so that a consensus may eventually emerge.A cumulative impact matrix is proposed that sets up additive, synergistic, and indirect categories, each capable of variation in space and time. Every interaction would be carefully examined to determine the likelihood of cumulative impact in any of the six categories. Because of its magnifying glass approach, such a matrix could be a very useful analytical tool, using existing methods to uncover all the information presently available about the behavior of the ecosystem of concern.     

基于历史资料的中国北方草原火灾风险评价

根据我国北方草原区各省、自治区1991—2005年的草原火灾资料，利用信息扩散理论和风险矩阵对我国北方草原区的草原火灾风险进行了计算，给出了我国北方各草原区的草原火灾年发生次数和草原火灾年受灾率在各个风险水平下的风险值，定量地评价了我国北方草原区的草原火灾风险。并给出几个重要风险水平下草原火灾风险的空间分布趋势和综合指标下的我国草原火灾风险空间分布趋势。     

Ethical Analysis of the Use of GM Fish: Emerging Issues for Aquaculture Development

Improvements in production methods over the last two decades have resulted in aquaculture becoming a significant contributor to food production in many countries. Increased efficiency and production levels are off-setting unsustainable capture fishing practices and contributing to food security, particularly in a number of developing countries. The challenge for the rapidly growing aquaculture industry is to develop and apply technologies that ensure sustainable production methods that will reduce environmental damage, increase productivity across the sector, and respect the diverse social and cultural dimensions of fish farming that are observed globally. The aquaculture industry currently faces a number of technology trajectories, which include the option to commercially produce genetically modified (GM) fish. The use of genetic modification in aquaculture has the potential to contribute to increased food security and is claimed to be the next logical step for the industry. However, the potential use of these technologies raises a number of important ethical questions. Using an ethical framework, the Ethical Matrix, this paper explores a number of the ethical issues potentially raised by the use of GM technologies in aquaculture. Several key issues have been identified. These include aspects of distributive justice for producers; use of a precautionary approach in the management of environmental risk and food safety; and impacts on the welfare and intrinsic value of the fish. There is a need to conduct a comparative analysis of the full economic cycle of the use of GM fish in aquaculture production for developing countries. There is also a need to initiate an informed dialogue between stakeholders and strenuous efforts should be made to ensure the participation of producers and their representatives from developing nations. An additional concern is that any national licensing of the first generation of GM fish, i.e., in the USA, may initiate and frame an assessment cycle, mediated by the WTO, which could dominate the conditions under which the technology will be applied and regulated globally. Therefore, an integrated analysis of the technology development trajectories, in terms of international policy, IPR, and operational implications, as well as an analysis of a broader range of ethical concerns, is needed.     

基于MATLAB的灰色预测系统及其对抽采瓦斯钻孔流量的数值模拟

研究钻孔瓦斯流量的变化及其变化趋势对抽采煤层瓦斯涌出量及钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度等参量的判定具有较大的实用价值。笔者将煤层抽采瓦斯钻孔看作一个灰色系统,利用灰色系统理论,以原始时间序列数据为基础,建立抽采瓦斯钻孔流量的模拟和预测GM(1,1)模型。针对数值模拟中大量的矩阵计算,利用MATLAB软件编制高效的计算机程序,实现了对抽采瓦斯钻孔流量的模拟和预测。为了检验模型模拟和预测结果的精度,选择了合理的误差检验模型。通过工程实例证明了GM(1,1)模型可信度较高,关联度较好,均方差比值为一级,拟合优度高。对瓦斯抽采设计和矿井安全生产具有一定的指导意义。     

Seasonal variability in CDOM absorption and fluorescence properties in the Barataria Basin, Louisiana, USA

Absorption and fluorescence properties of chromophoric dissolved organic matter(CDOM) along a 124 km transect in the Barataria Basin,a large estuary located in Louisiana,USA,were investigated during high and low flow periods of the Mississippi River in the spring and winter of 2008-2009. Mean CDOM absorption at 355 nm from the marine to the freshwater end member stations ranged from(3.25 ± 0.56) to(20.76 ± 2.43) m-1 for the three month high flow period whereas it varied from(1.48 ± 1.08) to(25.45 ± 7.03) m-1 for the same stations during low flow period. Corresponding salinity values at these stations indicated the influence of river and shelf exchanges in the lower basin and precipitation and runofl in the upper basin. An inverse relationship of CDOM absorbance and fluorescence with salinity observed in the basin could be a useful indicator of salinity. CDOM fluorescence also varied over a large range showing an approximately 8 to 12-fold increase between the marine and freshwater end members for the two flow seasons. Excitation-emission matrix spectral plots indicated the presence of various fluorescence components with highest being the A-peak,lowest the T-peak,and the C and M-peaks showing similar trends along the transect. During low flow season the A/C ratio were well correlated with station locations indicating increased terrestrial influence towards the upper basin. CDOM absorption and fluorescence at 355 nm were highly correlated and independent of CDOM sources suggesting that fluorescence could be used to characterize CDOM in the basin.     

豆秸杆作生态厕所基质的可行性研究

采用S-15型生态厕所为试验装置,以粉碎的豆秸杆颗粒作为反应基质,对人粪便进行了好氧堆肥的减量化和营养元素含量变化的实验研究,以确定豆秸杆是否具有良好的处理效果。试验中检测了pH值、有机质和氮、磷、钾、等指标变化。结果表明,以豆秸杆作为生态厕所基质具有较好的处理效果,每周混合物干重降解率平均为37.49%,混合物干重累积降解率达95.23%,终产物pH值为7.2,有机物总量71.02%,氮、磷、钾含量分别为3.72%、1.53%和4.71%,反应终产物可作有机肥料回收利用。     

粪便堆肥反应器载体性质变化及其对微生物影响

使用锯末作为堆肥反应器的微生物载体,研究了锯末载体性质的变化特性及其对微生物的影响。在历时90d的反应试验中,每日定时定量投加粪便,均匀混合,控制含水率和反应温度,对载体的总固体(TS)、灰分(Ash)、容重、孔隙度、木质素、纤维素以及好氧细菌和兼性细菌的数量进行了分析。实验结果表明,在每日定量投加1kg粪便(4~5人/d排泄量)的条件下,TS和Ash分别由最初的0.393g/g和0.024g/g增加到0.586g/g和0.138g/g。TS和Ash的增加导致载体容重的增加,容重由最初的0.052g/cm3增加到0.137g/cm3。相反,孔隙度由92.24%降低到89.42%。反应前后,载体的主要成分纤维素、半纤维素和木质素的含量分别下降了9.5%、3.2%和0.86%。好氧细菌总数由109cfu/g下降至107cfu/g,而兼性菌数量由105cfu/g增加到108cfu/g。由此可知,孔隙度是保障载体通气性和微生物良好生长环境的重要条件,由于载体通气性能下降,好氧微生物生长条件不断恶化,这是反应器工作周期受到限制的主要原因。     

Quantificational analysis on progress of river water quality in China

In order to understand the dynamic change of water quality in a specific period of time,a type of possibility transition matrix based on the theory of Markov process was established.The transition possibility with a weight to calculate the degree of absolute advancement was given based on the result of water quality evaluation,the concept of relative advancement was presented.It was used to evaluate the extent of water quality changed in a period of time.The method was used to calculate the degrees of relative advancement for 4 rivers in China,and the results were analyzed.     

水位变动对库区边坡稳定性的影响机理研究

利用数值模拟手段,对选定的库区边坡进行稳定性分析,得到了不同水位变动情况下的边坡稳定情况。认为水位的变动类型和变动率会对边坡的稳定造成影响,但影响效果不一样。从数学解析角度出发,推导出了库区水位上升与下降时,水力梯度与水流渗透方向、边坡倾斜角度三者之间较为理想化的关系形式。在此基础上,对边坡体内不同部位的水流情况以及所带来的影响进行了分析。进一步的,还从有效应力的角度,对水位变动影响边坡稳定性的机理进行了研究,且由不同方法所得的结论能够较好的相互印证。