Actual and Potential Use of Population Viability Analyses in Recovery of Plant Species Listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Use of population viability analyses (PVAs) in endangered species recovery planning has been met with both support and criticism. Previous reviews promote use of PVA for setting scientifically based, measurable, and objective recovery criteria and recommend improvements to increase the framework's utility. However, others have questioned the value of PVA models for setting recovery criteria and assert that PVAs are more appropriate for understanding relative trade‐offs between alternative management actions. We reviewed 258 final recovery plans for 642 plants listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act to determine the number of plans that used or recommended PVA in recovery planning. We also reviewed 223 publications that describe plant PVAs to assess how these models were designed and whether those designs reflected previous recommendations for improvement of PVAs. Twenty‐four percent of listed species had recovery plans that used or recommended PVA. In publications, the typical model was a matrix population model parameterized with ≤5 years of demographic data that did not consider stochasticity, genetics, density dependence, seed banks, vegetative reproduction, dormancy, threats, or management strategies. Population growth rates for different populations of the same species or for the same population at different points in time were often statistically different or varied by >10%. Therefore, PVAs parameterized with underlying vital rates that vary to this degree may not accurately predict recovery objectives across a species’ entire distribution or over longer time scales. We assert that PVA, although an important tool as part of an adaptive‐management program, can help to determine quantitative recovery criteria only if more long‐term data sets that capture spatiotemporal variability in vital rates become available. Lacking this, there is a strong need for viable and comprehensive methods for determining quantitative, science‐based recovery criteria for endangered species with minimal data availability. Uso Actual y Potencial del Análisis de Viabilidad Poblacional para la Recuperación de Especies de Plantas Enlistadas en el Acta de Especies En Peligro de E.U.A     

Accuracy of Short‐Term Demographic Data in Projecting Long‐Term Fate of Populations

Short‐term surveys are useful in conservation of species if they can be used to reliably predict the long‐term fate of populations. However, statistical evaluations of reliability are rare. We studied how well short‐term demographic data (1999–2002) of tartar catchfly (Silene tatarica), a perennial riparian plant, projected the fate and growth of 23 populations of this species up to the year 2010. Surveyed populations occurred along a river with natural flood dynamics and along a regulated river. Riparian plant populations are affected by flooding, which maintains unvegetated shores, while forest succession proceeds in areas with little flooding. Flooding is less severe along the regulated river, and vegetation overgrowth reduces abundance of tartar catchfly on unvegetated shores. We built matrix models to calculate population growth rates and estimated times to population extinction in natural and in regulated rivers, 13 and 10 populations, respectively. Models predicted population survival well (model predictions matched observed survival in 91% of populations) and accurately predicted abundance increases and decreases in 65% of populations. The observed and projected population growth rates differed significantly in all but 3 populations. In most cases, the model overestimated population growth. Model predictions did not improve when data from more years were used (1999–2006). In the regulated river, the poorest model predictions occurred in areas where cover of other plant species changed the fastest. Although vegetation cover increased in most populations, it decreased in 4 populations along the natural river. Our results highlight the need to combine disturbance and succession dynamics in demographic models and the importance of habitat management for species survival along regulated rivers. Precisión de Datos Demográficos de Corto Plazo en la Proyección del Destino de Poblaciones a Largo Plazo     

Laboratory analog and numerical study of groundwater flow and solute transport in a karst aquifer with conduit and matrix domains

New mathematical and laboratory methods have been developed for simulating groundwater flow and solute transport in karst aquifers having conduits imbedded in a porous medium, such as limestone. The Stokes equations are used to model the flow in the conduits and the Darcy equation is used for the flow in the matrix. The Beavers–Joseph interface boundary conditions are adopted to describe the flow exchange at the interface boundary between the two domains. A laboratory analog is used to simulate the conduit and matrix domains of a karst aquifer. The conduit domain is located at the bottom of the transparent plexiglas laboratory analog and glass beads occupy the remaining space to represent the matrix domain. Water flows into and out of the two domains separately and each has its own supply and outflow reservoirs. Water and solute are exchanged through an interface between the two domains. Pressure transducers located within the matrix and conduit domains of the analog provide data that is processed and stored in digital format. Dye tracing experiments are recorded using time-lapse imaging. The data and images produced are analyzed by a spatial analysis program. The experiments provide not only hydraulic head distribution but also capture solute front images and mass exchange measurements between the conduit and matrix domains. In the experiment, we measure and record pressures, and quantify flow rates and solute transport. The results present a plausible argument that laboratory analogs can characterize groundwater water flow, solute transport, and mass exchange between the conduit and matrix domains in a karst aquifer. The analog validates the predictions of a numerical model and demonstrates the need of laboratory analogs to provide verification of proposed theories and the calibration of mathematical models.     

应用层次分析-模糊综合评判法对煤与瓦斯突出危险性的预测

现场测定某矿掘进工作面煤与瓦斯突出的预测指标值,该指标包括:电磁辐射强度、电磁辐射脉冲、软分层厚度、钻屑量、瓦斯涌出初速度和综合指标R;运用层次分析法确定各预测指标的重要程度;利用模糊数学综合评价方法对煤与瓦斯突出的危险性进行综合预测。结果表明,该方法对煤与瓦斯突出的预测结果与综合指标R预测情况符合性较好,具有较强的实用性和可靠性,对煤矿的安全生产工作具有一定的指导作用和借鉴价值。     

Characterization of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and Their Sources in the Air of Izmir, Turkey

Air samples were collected in Izmir, Turkey at two (suburban and urban) sites during three sampling programs in 2002 and 2004 to determine the ambient concentrations of several monoaromatic, chlorinated and oxygenated volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Samples were analyzed for 60 VOCs using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry and 28 compounds were detected in most samples. On the average, urban air VOC concentrations were about four times higher than those measured at the suburban site. Toluene (40.6%) was the most abundant compound in suburban site and was followed by benzene (7.4%), o,m-xylene (6.5%), and 1,2-dichloroethane (5.1%). In urban site, toluene (30.5%), p-xylene (14.9%), o,m-xylene (11.4%), and ethyl benzene (7.2%) were the dominating compounds in summer. In winter, toluene (31.1%), benzene (23.9%), 1,2-dichloroethane (9.5%), and o,m-xylene (8.2%) were the most abundant compounds. Receptor modeling (positive matrix factorization) has been performed to estimate the contribution of specific source types to ambient concentrations. Six source factors (gasoline vehicle exhaust, diesel vehicle exhaust+residential heating, paint production/application, degreasing, dry cleaning, and an undefined source) were extracted from the samples collected in the urban site. Three source factors (gasoline vehicle exhaust, diesel vehicle exhaust, and paint production/application) were identified for the suburban site.     

模糊聚类分析法在分析数据评估上的应用

模糊数学是应用数学重要分支之一,其应用范围日益扩大.本文运用模糊聚类法对用六种分析设备所测定的某污染水源Cr、Fe和Al数据进行了分类对比,从而为分析设备筛选提供参考.结果表明:模糊聚类及相关方法是一种有效的评估手段.可简化计算、提高评估准确度.     

Identification and Classification of Key Variables and their Role in Environmental Impact Assessment: Methodology and Software Package Intra

There is, as yet, no proven methodology to enable, objectively,the identification of key parameters out of a large number one normally encounters during any EIA. As EIA is a costly and time-consuming exercise, it is necessary to separate the man from the boys – so to speak – in order to optimize costs andefforts.In this paper a methodology for distinguishing the moreimportant parameters from the less important ones, developed byus, is described. The methodology aims at identifying andshortlisting the key parameters which ought to be studied in agiven EIA situation, thereby helping in reducing time, effort,and cost of EIA. With this methodology a system structure is developed whichgives hierarchical pattern of inter-parameter interaction, andreveals several distinguishing features of each parameter. Asoftware package INTRA (INTer-parameter Relationship Analysis)based on this methodology, has been developed. The paper alsodescribes a case study in which INTRA has been used to study theenvironmental impacts of urbanization of a typical third worldtown (Roorkee).     

Atmospheric Aerosol over a Southeastern Region of Texas: Chemical Composition and Possible Sources

Speciated samples of PM_2.5 were collected at a site in Jefferson County, Texas by US EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) from July of 2003 to August of 2005. A total of 269 samples with 52 species were measured; however, 22 species were excluded in this study because of too many below-detection-limit data. The data set was analyzed by positive matrix factorization (PMF) to infer the sources of PM observed at the site. The analysis identified ten sources: sulfate-rich secondary aerosol I (35.9%), sulfate-rich secondary aerosol II (21.0%), cement/carbon-rich (11.7%), wood smoke (8.8%), metal processing (6.3%), motor vehicle/road dust (5.7%), nitrate-rich secondary aerosol (3.3%), soil (3.2%), sea salt (2.6%), and chloride depleted marine aerosol (1.6%). Sulfate and nitrate mainly exist as salts. The two sulfate-rich secondary aerosols account for almost 57% of the PM_2.5 mass concentration. The factor containing highest concentrations of Cl and Na was attributed to sea salt due to the proximity of the monitoring site to the Gulf of Mexico. The chloride depleted marine aerosol was related to the sea salt aerosol. Cement/carbon-rich, wood smoke, metal processing, and motor vehicle/road dust factor were likely to be the local sources.     

Integration of Land-Sharing and Land-Sparing Conservation Strategies Through Regional Networking: The Mesoamerican Biological Corridor as a Lifeline for Carnivores in El Salvador

Nations with little remaining natural habitat and small extent are challenged when trying to achieve biodiversity targets. We show that the Central American nation of El Salvador cannot viably sustain populations of 87 % of its extant carnivores, especially in the case of large-bodied species with low population densities. Current land-sparing strategies will not suffice; therefore we propose that land-sharing strategies be implemented in tandem with protected areas to expand current conservation efforts via new regional networks. In Central America such a network can be established by linking international protected area systems in a way that implements the existing vision for the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor. Specifically, we propose a re-envisioning of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor in which land-sharing practices are adopted throughout the agricultural matrix while ensuring formal protection of the remaining natural habitat. Such an integration of land-sparing and land-sharing could result in the creation of an effective network of protected areas, thereby increasing the probability of safeguarding species with populations that overlap national borders.     

区域地震应急能力优先建设矩阵构建方法的初步研究——以四川省为例

借鉴新一代的时间管理理论——"时间管理优先矩阵",提出并分析了区域地震应急能力优先建设矩阵的概念。分别以区域绝对和相对地震应急能力作为优先建设矩阵中"紧迫与否"和"重要与否"的定量化评价指标,构建了区域地震应急能力优先建设矩阵,划分了能力建设的四种类型,即需重点建设且紧迫性较强的区域类型(第Ⅰ类)、需重点建设但紧迫性较弱的区域类型(第Ⅱ类)、次重要建设但具一定紧迫性的区域类型(第Ⅲ类)和次重要建设且紧迫性较弱的区域类型(第Ⅳ类),在区域能力建设过程中应当遵循从第Ⅰ类到第Ⅳ类建设力度由重到轻、时间由急到缓,逐步开展的原则。最后,以四川省为例,以县(市)为基本评价单元,给出了四川省未来地震应急能力建设的优先等级类型。