地震灾害损失预测的动态分析模型

本文提出了一个地震灾害预测的动态分析模型。这个模型基于概率理论基础,考虑了一个城市因建设的发展,新房屋日益增多,部分旧房屋被淘汰,对城市抗震能力引起的变化;和由于经济的发展,社会财富的增加,对地震损失的影响。为解决这—问题,文中提出了动态震害矩阵和动态损失矩阵的求解方法。根据这一方法可以预测未来不同年代的地震经济损失。     

印染工业园区集中废水处理达标难点及DOM特征解析

以太湖流域某印染工业园区中集中废水处理厂为研究对象,分析有机物、氮、磷等污染物的水质变化特征,发现其出水TP、TN、NH₃-N、COD的平均浓度分别为0.20、5.39、0.60和55 mg·L⁻¹,COD应对新标准DB 32-2018要求存在达标风险。为解决COD能够稳定达标的问题,通过3D-EEM、FT-IR和GC-MS等方法分析了该印染废水在处理过程中溶解性有机物的去除及迁移转化规律。结果表明：经生化处理后的废水荧光强度显著降低,深度处理后的色氨酸类物质被显著去除,出水中荧光特征峰明显减弱,大部分蛋白质与腐殖酸类物质被去除;各单元出水中存在不饱和双键类和芳香类化合物,典型官能团以—OH、C=O和C≡N等不饱和键为主;出水中主要成分为2,4'-二氟二苯甲酮和4-羟基-4-甲基-2-戊酮,判断其为该印染园区废水中的特征有机污染物。该方法明确了印染园区集中废水处理难点及溶解性有机物特征,为类似废水处理提供数据和技术支撑。     

事故树-风险矩阵评估高校实验室火灾风险

为了使高校实验室安全管理科学化、精准化,应用事故树-风险矩阵法进行风险评估。首先采用事故树法对实验室火灾事故进行分析,得出导致事故发生的基本事件,然后依照事故致因理论,得出事故隐患三级原因,采用层次分析法对事故发生的频率和后果严重度及安全措施补偿系数的等级赋值,得到四级风险矩阵模型,对基本事件调查并由专家评估得出其风险值。评估结果表明导致实验室火灾事故的主要原因为:燃烧反应失控、加热、人员消防素质、操作不当、实验室管理水平、火灾报警系统缺陷、电气火花、灭火材料不足、消防系统缺陷、木制品、反应放热、存放不当。根据基本事件风险值高低针对性采取相应预防措施可以一定程度上提升实验室安全管理水平。     

基于风险矩阵的灾害演化网络定量分析方法

针对使用度值定性分析灾害演化网络的局限性问题,为了使灾害演化风险分析结果更准确,提出了一种将灾害演化网络与风险矩阵有机结合的分析方法.在分析灾害演化网络结构特征和风险组成的理论基础上,考虑节点自身风险水平和灾害演化系统的综合风险水平,基于可能性和后果严重程度两大因素引入风险矩阵法,对灾害节点风险水平进行量化分级,并通过...     

城市供水管网在地震时的连通可靠性分析

考虑地震作用效应和管道抗力的随机特性,建立了埋地管道单元的概率预测模型,评估其在地震时的震害状态.把供水管网系统简化为边权有向网络图,通过Monte Carlo随机模拟过程,近似再现管网中各管段的破坏状态,进而分别结合图论理论方法和模糊关系矩阵法,对管网进行连通可靠性分析.由于Monte Carlo模拟算法是以管网各节...     

房屋建筑的震害矩阵计算与设防投资比确定

本文包括两个内容：１研究了现有建筑的设防延伸率,给出了用设防延伸率计算震害矩阵的分析方法,并用框架、厂房的计算破坏比与包头西地震调查得到的破坏比进行了比较,二者基本吻合;２．通过咨询抗震设计专家,确定并给出了框架、砖结构、厂房的设防投资比。     

Some specialized risk assessment methodologies for vertebrate populations

We present three empirical methods for risk assessment in field studies of free-ranging vertebrates. First, we advocate statistical inference concerning population recruitment or mortality in response to ecological hazards. Second, if inferences about both recruitment and mortality are available, one can use a Leslie- Lefkovitch matrix to estimate the finite rate of population change () as a function of ecological hazards. Third, designed experiments can be conducted on samples of marked animals in natural environments to assess impacts and risks. These methods rely on either sophisticated capture-recapture or radio-tracking models, and on well-developed analysis theory. The use of uniquely marked animals is somewhat analogous to the use of tracers in other areas of risk assessment. We present examples of each approach and discuss some limitations.     

Assessment of GC–MS response of selected pesticides in apple matrices related to matrix concentration

A uniform analyte response is required for GC–MS analysis in order to obtain acceptable quantitative results. The response of pesticides in complex matrices is susceptible to variation due to the interactions of co-extractives, both with pesticides or with GC–MS system. This study was conducted to determine the magnitude of the interactions, called matrix effect, and their behavior with the matrix dilution. The response of pyrimethanil (4,6-dimethyl-N-phenylpyrimidin-2-amine), cyprodinil (4-cyclopropyl-6-methyl-N-phenylpyrimidin-2-amine), trifloxystrobin (methyl-(2Z)-2-methoxyimino-2-[2-[[(E)-1-[3(trifluoromethyl)phenyl]ethylidene amino]oxymethyl]phenyl]acetate) and bifenthrin(2-methyl-3-phenylphenyl)methyl-3-[(Z)-2-chloro-3,3,3-trifluoroprop-1-enyl]-2,2-dimethylcyclopropane-1-carboxylate), used in apple crops protection, was evaluated in different concentrations of peel and flesh extracts of Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Demi Rouge, selected as representatives of different matrix types. The matrix effect ranged from ?0.05 to 146.14%, depending on matrix type and pesticide. The highest response variation was observed in extracts of Granny Smith—an enhancement in flesh and suppression in peel extract. With the dilution, the matrix effect decreased with different magnitudes, but for Granny Smith peel extract an inverted effect was observed. The presence of the matrix effect in GC–MS pesticides analysis was obvious, requiring the application of matrix-matched calibration in quantification procedures for each variety, with calibration standards matched by the matrix concentration.     

A COMPLEMENTARY TOOL TO WATER QUALITY INDEX: FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: A general methodology for fuzzy clustering analysis is developed and illustrated with a case study of water quality evaluation for Dianshan Lake, Shanghai, China. Fuzzy clustering analysis may be used whenever a composite classification of water quality incorporates multiple parameters. In such cases, the technique may be used as a complement or an alternative to comprehensive assessment. In fuzzy clustering analysis, the classification is determined by a fuzzy relation. After a fuzzy similarity matrix has been established and the fuzzy relation stabilized, a dynamic clustering chart can be developed. Given a suitable threshold, the appropriate classification is worked out. The methodology is relatively simple, and the results can be interpreted to provide valuable information to support decision making and to aid water quality management.     

Facile fabrication of dolomite-doped biochar/bentonite for effective removal of phosphate from complex wastewaters

● Dolomite-doped biochar/bentonite was synthesized for phosphate removal. ● DO/BB exhibited a high phosphate adsorption capacity in complex water environments. ● PVC membrane incorporated with DO/BB can capture low concentration phosphate. ● Electrostatic interaction, complexation and precipitation are main mechanisms. The removal of phosphate from wastewater using traditional biological or precipitation methods is a huge challenge. The use of high-performance adsorbents has been shown to address this problem. In this study, a novel composite adsorbent, composed of dolomite-doped biochar and bentonite (DO/BB), was first synthesized via co-pyrolysis. The combination of initial phosphate concentration of 100 mg/L and 1.6 g/L of DO/BB exhibited a high phosphate-adsorption capacity of 62 mg/g with a removal efficiency of 99.8%. It was also stable in complex water environments with various levels of solution pH, coexisting anions, high salinity, and humic acid. With this new composite, the phosphate concentration of the actual domestic sewage decreased from 9 mg/L to less than 1 mg/L, and the total nitrogen and chemical oxygen demand also decreased effectively. Further, the cross-flow treatment using a PVC membrane loaded with DO/BB (PVC-DO/BB), decreased the phosphate concentration from 1 to 0.08 mg/L, suggesting outstanding separation of phosphate pollutants via a combination of adsorption and separation. In addition, the removal of phosphate by the PVC-DO/BB membrane using NaOH solution as an eluent was almost 90% after 5 cycles. The kinetic, isotherm and XPS analysis before and after adsorption suggested that adsorption via a combination of electrostatic interaction, complexation and precipitation contributed to the excellent separation by the as-obtained membranes.