Population viability of the Siberian Tiger in a changing landscape: Going, going and gone?

The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is a flagship species of the boreal forest ecosystem in northeastern China and Russia Far East. During the past century, the tiger population has declined sharply from more than 3000 to fewer than 600 individuals, and its habitat has become much smaller and greatly fragmented. Poaching, habitat degradation, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation have been widely recognized as the primary causes for the observed population decline. Using a population viability analysis tool (RAMAS/GIS), we simulated the effects of poaching, habitat degradation, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation on the population dynamics and extinction risk of the Amur tiger, and then explored the relative effectiveness of three conservation strategies involving improving habitat quality and establishing movement corridors in China and Russia. A series of controlled simulation experiments were performed based on the current spatial distribution of habitat and field-observed vital rates. Our results showed that the Amur tiger population could be viable for the next 100 years if the current habitat area and quality were well-maintained, with poaching strictly prohibited of the tigers and their main prey species. Poaching and habitat degradation (mainly prey scarcity) had the largest negative impacts on the tiger population persistence. While the effect of habitat loss was also substantial, habitat fragmentation per se had less influence on the long-term fate of the tiger population. However, to sustain the subpopulations in both Russia and China would take much greater conservation efforts. The viability of the Chinese population of tigers would rely heavily on its connectivity with the largest patch on the other side of the border. Improving the habitat quality of small patches only or increasing habitat connectivity through movement corridors alone would not be enough to guarantee the long-term population persistence of the Amur tiger in both Russia and China. The only conservation strategy that allowed for long-term persistence of tigers in both countries required both the improvement of habitat quality and the establishment of a transnational reserve network. Our study provides new insights into the metapopulation dynamics and persistence of the Amur tiger, which should be useful in landscape and conservation planning for protecting the biggest cat species in the world.     

Integrating soil carbon cycling with that of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed model SWAT: Theory and model testing

In this paper we describe and test a sub-model that integrates the cycling of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model. The core of the sub-model is a multi-layer, one-pool soil organic carbon (S_C) algorithm, in which the decomposition rate of S_C and input rate to S_C (through decomposition and humification of residues) depend on the current size of S_C. The organic N and P fluxes are coupled to that of C and depend on the available mineral N and P, and the C:N and N:P ratios of the decomposing pools. Tillage explicitly affects the soil organic matter turnover rate through tool-specific coefficients. Unlike most models, the turnover of soil organic matter does not follow first order kinetics. Each soil layer has a specific maximum capacity to accumulate C or C saturation (S_x) that depends on texture and controls the turnover rate. It is shown in an analytical solution that S_x is a parameter with major influence in the model C dynamics. Testing with a 65-yr data set from the dryland wheat growing region in Oregon shows that the model adequately simulates the S_C dynamics in the topsoil (top 0.3 m) for three different treatments. Three key model parameters, the optimal decomposition and humification rates and a factor controlling the effect of soil moisture and temperature on the decomposition rate, showed low uncertainty as determined by generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation. Nonetheless, the parameter set that provided accurate simulations in the topsoil tended to overestimate S_C in the subsoil, suggesting that a mechanism that expresses at depth might not be represented in the current sub-model structure. The explicit integration of C, N, and P fluxes allows for a more cohesive simulation of nutrient cycling in the SWAT model. The sub-model has to be tested in forestland and rangeland in addition to agricultural land, and in diverse soils with extreme properties such high or low pH, an organic horizon, or volcanic soils.     

沙田柚根围AM真菌的生境适宜性和季节变化性

以山地长寿沙田柚成年果树为对象,研究不同生境和季节对丛枝菌根(Arbuscular mycorrhiza,AM)真菌侵染以及根围土壤中AM真菌孢子密度的影响.试验结果表明,不同生境下,菌根侵染率和AM真菌孢子密度都是以梯田最高,坡地次之,洼地最低;在坡地和洼地生境下,生草区均高于清耕区.两块试验地AM真菌的菌丝侵染率均为夏季最高(16.8%±1.9%和16.0%±1.8%),秋季次之,冬季最低;丛枝和泡囊的形成也是夏/秋季较高,春/冬季较低;而根围土壤中AM真菌孢子密度则是秋季最高[(159±19)个/100 g和(167±17)个/100 g],夏季次之,冬季最低.总之,对于长寿沙田柚成年果树,AM真菌的菌根侵染率在夏季梯田最高,根围土壤中的AM真菌孢子密度在秋季梯田最高;在坡地和洼地生境中,生草处理均可显著提高菌根侵染率和AM真菌孢子密度.图4参27     

二氯喹啉酸在水稻、土壤和田水中消解动态及残留

为评价二氯喹啉酸在水稻及其土壤中的安全性,建立其在水稻上的使用规范,于2008、2009年在杭州、济南和铁力三地进行田间试验,研究了二氯喹啉酸在水稻、土壤和田水中消解动态及最终残留量。建立了二氯喹啉酸在水稻、土壤和田水中残留量的超高效液相色谱串联质谱测定方法。在添加水平5～100μg.kg-1范围内,二氯喹啉酸的平均回收率在81.6%～105.7%之间,相对标准偏差均低于17.9%。残留试验结果表明,二氯喹啉酸在植株、土壤和田水中消解均符合一级动力学方程,消解半衰期分别为16.4～18.6、16.6～21.9和15.4～16.9 d;二氯喹啉酸在植株、土壤、糙米和稻壳中最终残留量均未检出（〈5μg.kg-1）。若二氯喹啉酸在水稻中的最高残留限量推荐值为0.5 mg.kg-1,建议每年以有效成分25 g.mu-1的剂量,于水稻移栽后10 d喷施1次,用于防治水稻田中稗草。     

蚯蚓和堆肥固定化添加模式对漆酶降解土壤五氯酚的影响

利用土壤五氯酚（PCP）污染模拟实验,研究两种不同生态型蚯蚓（赤子爱胜蚓Eisenia foetida和壮尾环毛蚓Amynthas robustus E.Perrie）和堆肥固定化添加模式对漆酶降解土壤PCP的影响。在42 d培养期内,测试了不同处理下PCP质量分数、漆酶活性,以及土壤呼吸和微生物碳氮等微生物指标。结果表明：堆肥固定化漆酶降解土壤PCP的效果优于壳聚糖固定化漆酶和自由漆酶,主要原因是堆肥固定化漆酶能够有效地提高漆酶稳定性,减缓其活性下降速度。此外,堆肥还能提高土壤微生物的数量与活性,显著提升土壤漆酶的活性。添加两种生态型蚯蚓对漆酶活性影响不显著,但均可以显著提高土壤微生物的数量与活性,加速土壤中PCP的降解。壮尾环毛蚓对土壤微生物数量与活性的提升效果优于赤子爱胜蚓。     

UV-B辐射增强对不同大麦品种生理特性的影响

通过大田试验,研究了UV-B辐射增强对不同生育期3个大麦(Hordeum vulgare)品种光合和蒸腾生理特性的影响。试验设对照(自然光)和辐射增强(辐照强度14.4 kJ.m-2.d-1)2个UV-B辐射水平。结果表明,UV-B辐射增强明显抑制大麦光合作用和蒸腾作用。与对照相比,UV-B辐射增强可降低叶片叶绿素含量、气孔导度、净光合速率和蒸腾速率,但对胞间CO2摩尔分数基本没有影响。不同大麦品种对UV-B辐射增强响应的敏感性存在差异,单2号对UV-B辐射增强较为敏感,而苏啤4号较不敏感。     

腐殖酸吸附Cr(Ⅵ)的对比实验研究

研究了未处理的腐殖酸(HA)和不溶性腐殖酸(IHA)对Cr(Ⅵ)的吸附作用.进行了反应时间、pH值、IHA投加量、温度等对去除效率的影响研究,确定了两种吸附剂最佳反应条件,并通过对比实验,分析了两种吸附剂吸附Cr(Ⅵ)的特点.实验表明,HA达到最大吸附量时所需要的反应时间(180 min左右)远远高于IHiA的反应时间...     

基于信息熵的垫片密封模糊可靠度

在充分考虑垫片密封的随机性和模糊性的基础上,提出了垫片密封模糊可靠性的概念.基于信息熵理论,按模糊泄漏率导出垫片密封的模糊可靠度计算公式,并用算例说明了公式的应用.     

基于模糊均生函数和最优子集回归的飞行事故率预测

为有效预防飞行事故的发生,针对飞行事故率具有随机波动性和趋势性的特点,采用模糊均生函数(FMGF)和最优子集回归(OSR)建立飞行事故率预测模型。该方法把FMGF延拓序列作为预测因子加入OSR方程,将FMGF分析和因子筛选相结合作OSR,进而对飞行事故率进行预测。通过对美国空军1988—2004年的飞行事故率进行拟合预测,结果表明:将FMGF模型和OSR模型有机结合,能够有效刻画飞行事故率的随机波动特性,并且其预测结果的相对误差也较小。     

A Bayesian assessment of the effect of highway bypasses in Iowa on crashes and crash rate

Introduction

A common contention is that the construction of highway bypasses negatively impacts the economy of local communities by reducing pass-by traffic for businesses. However, as access to specific business' account records is limited, this impact is difficult to quantify. Another common contention is that bypasses contribute to a reduction in overall crashes in the community and in the surrounding areas. Even though a large number of bypasses have been constructed in the State of Iowa over the past several years, their actual impact in terms of traffic safety has not been quantified.

Objectives

This study seeks answers to the following questions: (a) Are bypasses in Iowa associated with a reduction in crash frequencies and crash rates on the bypassed highway? (b) Do bypasses in Iowa introduce a reduction of overall crash frequencies and rates or do they merely shift crashes from the highways through the communities to the bypasses with no significant overall reduction?

Method

We obtained crash information from the Iowa DOT at 19 sites on which a bypass was constructed sometime during the past 23 years. We also obtained the same information at six sites used as comparison sites on which no bypasses were constructed at least until 2005. We them employed a Bayesian approach to estimating the association between the construction of the bypass and crash rates, while also accounting for other factors.

Results

The construction of bypasses in Iowa is associated with a significant increase in traffic safety both on the main road through town and on the combined main road and bypass roadway.