技术路线图方法在安全生产科技规划战略研究中的应用

技术路线图是一种新兴和有效的可用于规划战略研究的技术方法,近年来在我国相关行业领域的重大技术发展战略研究,以及重点产业技术创新规划中得到越来越广泛的应用。本文对技术路线图的起源、发展、类型等进行了概述,介绍了技术路线图同科技规划之间的关系,并按照＂重大需求—战略任务—技术重点＂的规划战略研究分析框架,进行了＂十二五＂安全生产科技规划战略研究,通过专家问卷调查和综合分析,对梳理凝练的22项技术重点的研发重要度、紧迫性进行了评价,绘制了安全科技发展技术路线图。使用技术路线图方法对安全生产科技规划进行战略研究是＂十二五＂安全科技规划编制工作的一次探索和尝试,希望对今后开展相关领域战略研究、重大科技遴选等工作提供借鉴作用。     

Giving green to get green? Incentives and consumer adoption of hybrid vehicle technology

Federal, state, and local governments use a variety of incentives to induce consumer adoption of hybrid-electric vehicles. We study the relative efficacy of state sales tax waivers, income tax credits, and non-tax incentives and find that the type of tax incentive offered is as important as the generosity of the incentive. Conditional on value, sales tax waivers are associated with more than a ten-fold increase in hybrid sales relative to income tax credits. In addition, we examine how adoption varies with fuel prices. Rising gasoline prices are associated with greater hybrid vehicle sales, but this effect operates almost entirely through high fuel-economy vehicles. By comparing consumer response to sales tax waivers and estimated future fuel savings, we estimate an implicit discount rate of 14.6% on future fuel savings.     

Trade, technology, and the environment: Does access to technology promote environmental regulation?

Focusing specifically on regulation of coal-fired power plants, we examine how technological innovation by early adopters influences the timing of new environmental regulation in non-innovating countries. We build a general equilibrium model of an open economy to identify the political-economy determinants of regulation. With a newly created dataset of SO₂ and NO_x regulations for coal-fired power plants and a patent-based measure of the technology frontier, we estimate the determinants of environmental regulation diffusion. Our findings support the hypothesis that international economic integration eases access to environmentally friendly technologies and leads to earlier adoption, ceteris paribus, of regulation in non-innovating countries. However, we also find evidence that domestic trade protection promotes earlier adoption allowing shifts of regulatory costs to domestic consumers. Furthermore, international market power permits large countries to shift costs to foreign consumers. Other political economy factors, such as the quality of domestic coal, are also important determinants.     

Coping with accelerating socio-technical systems

In 1997 a workshop was held on the subject of how to cope with accelerating technologies. These are industries such as aviation, air traffic control and biotechnology, amongst others, where the rate of technological development is significant. A number of papers were presented from a range of viewpoints and in a variety of different industrial contexts. The papers ranged from theoretical models to help understand the process of acceleration and its impact on organisational learning, to practical analyses of future potential risks in specific accelerating industries such as air traffic control. The aim of the papers and the workshop as a whole was to provide insight into the problems associated with accelerating technologies, and thereby derive measures to control or cope with such acceleration. The problems arising from acceleration, as predicted by the theoretical models and evidenced by experiences in accelerating industries (e.g. aviation) are manifold. Two examples of particular problems are unforeseen risks in an industry (a lack of forward vision), and a failure to learn adequately (i.e. in time) from incidents occurring in an organisation (a lack of constructive hindsight). There is also an incipient danger of society being driven by technology rather than being led by social needs. Even if each technology ultimately becomes ‘ultra-safe’, it will nevertheless have its own ‘event horizon’, limiting useful further progress. Each of the papers from the workshop is summarised and integrated into a three-part synopsis of the workshop. This covers the context of accelerating technologies, modelling their impacts, and deriving coping strategies. Four of the papers are included in their entirety as separate papers in their own right in this special issue of Safety Science.     

浅谈事故查处遵循的原则及善后处理需把握的关键问题

通过安全工作实践 ,总结归纳了事故查处应遵循的若干原则和善后处理的主要内容 ,提出了事故善后处理过程中需要把握的几个关键问题 ,对于事故管理有一定的借鉴和指导意义。     

医院安全保障中的技术因素

医院安全保障体系的技术构成包括安全的诊疗救护技术、后勤供养技术和安全保卫技术。其技术特点是以人为本 ,服务健康 ,应急性强 ,发展迅速 ,互相影响。本文提出了医院安全保障体系改革的构想和建立医院安全保障体系中应考虑的技术因素。     

Analysis of motorcycle accidents using association rule mining-based framework with parameter optimization and GIS technology

IntroductionAnalyzing key factors of motorcycle accidents is an effective method to reduce fatalities and improve road safety. Association Rule Mining (ARM) is an efficient data mining method to identify critical factors associated with injury severity. However, the existing studies have some limitations in applying ARM: (a) Most studies determined parameter thresholds of ARM subjectively, which lacks objectiveness and efficiency; (b) Most studies only listed rules with high parameter thresholds, while lacking in-depth analysis of multiple-item rules. Besides, the existing studies seldom conducted a spatial analysis of motorcycle accidents, which can provide intuitive suggestions for policymakers. Method: To address these limitations, this study proposes an ARM-based framework to identify critical factors related to motorcycle injury severity. A method for parameter optimization is proposed to objectively determine parameter thresholds in ARM. A method of factor extraction is proposed to identify individual key factors from 2-item rules and boosting factors from multiple-item rules. Geographic information system (GIS) is adopted to explore the spatial relationship between key factors and motorcycle injury severity. Results and conclusions: The framework is applied to a case study of motorcycle accidents in Victoria, Australia. Fifteen attributes are selected after data preprocessing. 0.03 and 0.7 are determined as the best thresholds of support and confidence in ARM. Five individual key factors and four boosting factors are identified to be related to fatal injury. Spatial analysis is conducted by GIS to present hot spots of motorcycle accidents. The proposed framework has been validated to have better performance on parameter optimization and rule analysis in ARM. Practical applications: The hot spots of motorcycle accidents related to fatal factors are presented in GIS maps. Policymakers can refer to those maps straightforwardly when decision making. This framework can be applied to various kinds of traffic accidents to improve the performance of severity analysis.     

Development of inherent safety and health index for formulated product design

The numerous formulated products which are introduced to the market consist of chemical ingredients that may cause various safety and health hazards to the consumers. Therefore, it is extremely important to practice a systematic methodology to formulate products with acceptable safety and health performances. This work presents an index-based methodology to assess the safety and health hazards of the ingredients during the early formulation stage of product design. Hence, new inherent safety and health sub-indexes are introduced to improve the current safety and health hazards that are needed in formulated product design. The inherent safety and health sub-indexes are assigned with scores based on the degree of potential hazards. A higher score indicates a higher safety risk or severe health effect, and vice versa. The proposed methodology will greatly assist the users to identify the adverse safety and health effects caused by the ingredients. Hence, it is pivotal to eliminate or reduce the safety and health impacts from product usage. A case study on common ingredients used in the formulation of paint is presented on this study to describe the proposed method.     

资源环境约束下构建区域技术创新决策管理体系研究

当前区域经济社会发晨面临日益突出的资源环境约束阎题，区域技术创新体系建设和技术创新能力提升。是缓解资源环境压力、实现经济社会全面协调可持续发晨的根本途径。区域技术创新决策管理体系是整个技术创新体系的重要一环。本文在阐述技术创新重要作用等基础上。提出了在资源环境约束下，构建区域技术创新决策管理体系的主要措施。     

安全科学技术也是第一生产力(第二部分)

提出安全科学技术也是第一生产力的观点。简析科学、技术和科学技术的内涵及其相互关系;研究科学技术与生产力的关系;阐述安全科学技术也是第一生产力;探讨发展高科技与安全科学技术的关系;安全科学技术发展中应注意的问题。