低层大气中固体粒子运动及其物理模拟

对于大气边界层中的固体粒子的风致运动－较大粒子的蠕动跃动和较小粒子悬浮－的主要特征作了介绍，着重介绍了在悬浮粒子运动的物理模拟研究方面的一些成果；复杂地形物低层大气湍流会显地提高起尘速率并改变降尘量的分布；有一定我向厚度的风障除了屏蔽效应－－即背风侧平均风速的减小－－外，还滕了终进入空气的灰尘数量的“宏观吸附效应”；总结了模拟悬浮粒子运动的风洞实验所应遵循的相似性准则，并提出了模拟防尘风障的中的     

Assessment of carbon leakage in multiple carbon-sink projects: a case study in Jambi Province,Indonesia

Rehabilitation of degraded forest land through implementation of carbon-sink projects can increase terrestrial carbon (C) stock. However, carbon emissions outside the project boundary, which is commonly referred to as leakage, may reduce or negate the sequestration benefits. This study assessed leakage from carbon-sink projects that could potentially be implemented in the study area comprised of 11 sub-districts in the Batanghari District, Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. The study estimates the probability of a given land use/cover being converted into other uses/cover, by applying a logit model. The predictor variables were: proximity to the center of the land use area, distance to transportation channel (road or river), area of agricultural land, unemployment (number of job seekers), job opportunities, population density and income. Leakage was estimated by analyzing with and without carbon-sink projects scenarios. Most of the predictors were estimated as being significant in their contribution to land use cover change. The results of the analysis show that leakage in the study area can be large enough to more than offset the project’s carbon sequestration benefits during the period 2002–2012. However, leakage results are very sensitive to changes of carbon density of the land uses in the study area. By reducing C-density of lowland and hill forest by about 10% for the baseline scenario, the leakage becomes positive. Further data collection and refinement is therefore required. Nevertheless, this study has demonstrated that regional analysis is a useful approach to assess leakage.     

Late Variscan exhumation histories of the southern Rhenohercynian Zone and western Mid-German Crystalline Rise: results from thermal modeling

Thermal modeling techniques constrained by published petrological and thermo-chronometric data were applied to examine late orogenic burial and exhumation at a Variscan suture zone in Central Europe. The suture separates the southern Rhenohercynian zone from the Mid-German Crystalline Rise and traces the former site of a small oceanic basin. Closure of this basin during Variscan subduction and subsequent collision of continental units were responsible for different tectono-metamorphic evolutions in the suture's footwall and hanging wall. Relative convergence rates between the southern Rhenohercynian zone and western Mid-German Crystalline Rise can be inferred from the pressure-temperature-time evolution of the Northern Phyllite Zone. During Late Viséan-Early Namurian times, horizontal thrusting velocities were at least 20 mm/a. Thermal modeling suggests that exhumation of the Mid-German Crystalline Rise occurred temporarily at rates of more than 3 mm/a. Such rapid exhumation cannot be produced by erosion only, but requires a substantial contribution of extensional strain. Exhumation by upper crustal extension occurred contemporaneously with convergence and is explained by continuous underplating of crustal slices and thrusting along faults with ramp-flat geometry. Finally, implications for the tectono-metamorphic history of the study area and the thermal state of the crust during late Variscan exhumation are discussed.     

An estimate of the conversion rates of SO2 to SO2-4 and NO2 to HNO3+ NO3- for the evaluation air pollution in Beijing

The conversion rates of SO₂ to SO^2-₄ and NO₂ to HNO₃₊NO₃- are estimated from the field-data obtained in Beijing in summer, 1988. The results show that the conversion rate of NO₂ is about four times as much as that of SO₂; The conversion rates have a diurnal variation in a day. On the average, the rate of SO₂ is estimated to be 4.7% h^-1 during the daytime and 3.4% h^-1 during the nighttime. Similarly, the rate of NO₂ is estimated to be 17.2% h^-1 and 12% h^-1 respectively.     

核电厂址事故大气弥散因子计算的实验与理论研究

在目前常用的计算核电厂事故概率大气扩散因子的模式基础上提出了考虑内边界层影响的计算模式，根据某待建滨海核电厂址大气弥散实验的实测参数，分别采用本模式和常用模式估算了厂址边界０．５ｋｍ外的最终评价用事故概率扩散因子和各途径的剂量及有效剂量。计算结果表明，无论是事故概率扩散因子还是个人有效剂量，本模式给出的值都是常用模式的５．９倍。因此，在不能忽略内边界层出现频率的滨海厂址，必须考虑内边界层对事故扩散     

An approach and preliminary model of integrating ecological and economic constraints of environmental quality in the Guayas River estuary, Ecuador

We describe conceptual and simulation models of land use within the intertidal zone of the Guayas River estuary to quantify the contribution of mangrove wetlands to maintaining environmental quality of a tropical estuary. The goal of this exercise is to demonstrate the important consideration of ecological constraints in determining economic and management decisions; and how modeling can be used to quantify impacts of land use such as loss of mangrove wetlands on environmental quality. Our conceptual model treats solar energy, river flow, and tides as forcing functions that control the properties of estuarine ecosystems, but also describes market forces and cultural policies as constraints on properties of socioeconomic systems. The controversy of coastal resource management in Ecuador centers around the relative impacts of shrimp pond construction and management as negative feedbacks to the environmental quality of the Guayas River estuary. Unique oceanographic processes and land use changes contribute to complex issues of water and habitat quality in this tropical estuary, the largest estuarine complex on the Pacific coast of South America. A dynamic box model was developed for the estuary and calibrated with data collected from a 14 month survey of water quality parameters throughout the estuary. Scenarios included conversion of mangroves to shrimp ponds in three regions of the estuary, and the construction of a dam by varying three different rates of river discharge at 100, 50 and 10% of 1989 base flow. Good water quality is maintained by the low residence time of water in the estuary (11 d) because of seasonally high river flow and tidal exchange. With a 90% reduction of mangrove forests in the estuary caused by shrimp pond construction, total nitrogen concentrations increased 5 fold. However, as river discharge decreased to 10%, the same construction caused a 60 fold increase in nitrogen concentrations to 250 μM. Increases in nitrogen concentrations were higher in the upper estuary region, with much less change in the lower estuary. Thus the sensitivity of environmental quality to changes in land use in the intertidal and upland zone are linked to the hydrography of the estuary and is site specific. In the future, the combinations of these ecological models together with economic analyses of the goods and services of mangroves may provide better techniques to evaluate the economic impacts of specific coastal zone management decisions.     

Use of Integrated Modeling to Enhance Estimates of Population Dynamics Obtained from Limited Data

Abstract:  Demographic data of rare and endangered species are often too sparse to estimate vital rates and population size with sufficient precision for understanding population growth and decline. Yet, the combination of different sources of demographic data into one statistical model holds promise. We applied Bayesian integrated population modeling to demographic data from a colony of the endangered greater horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) . Available data were the number of subadults and adults emerging from the colony roost at dusk, the number of newborns from 1991 to 2005, and recapture data of subadults and adults from 2004 and 2005. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, and demographic rates remained constant across time. The greater horseshoe bat is a long-lived species with high survival rates (first year: 0.49 [SD 0.06]; adults: 0.91 [SD 0.02]) and low fecundity (0.74 [SD 0.12]). The yearly average population growth was 4.4% (SD 0.1%) and there were 92 (SD 10) adults in the colony in year 2005. Had we analyzed each data set separately, we would not have been able to estimate fecundity, the estimates of survival would have been less precise, and the estimate of population growth biased. Our results demonstrate that integrated models are suitable for obtaining crucial demographic information from limited data.     

Fungicidal activity and molecular modeling of fusarubin analogues from Fusarium oxysporum

Abstract

Fusarubin analogues of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. ciceris were investigated for antifungal activity in vitro against five soil borne phytopathogenic fungi. 3-O-Methyl-8-O-methyl-fusarubin was inhibitory towards S. sclerotiorum (EC₅₀ 0.33?mmol L^?1) and Sclerotium rolfsii (EC₅₀ 0.38?mmol L^?1). A structure–antifungal activity relationship of fusarubin analogues was established from their activity performance. Possible mechanism of action of these compounds was studied using molecular docking and simulations against three target enzymes which revealed receptor ligand binding affinity. Docking of 3-O-methyl-8-O-methyl-fusarubin into the succinate dehydrogenase site revealed formation of salt bridge, hydrogen bond, π–anion, π–alkyl, and Van der Waals interactions.     

Risk Assessment of Riparian Plant Invasions into Protected Areas

Abstract:  Protected areas are becoming increasingly isolated. River corridors represent crucial links to the surrounding landscape but are also major conduits for invasion of alien species. We developed a framework to assess the risk that alien plants in watersheds adjacent to a protected area will invade the protected area along rivers. The framework combines species- and landscape-level approaches and has five key components: (1) definition of the geographical area of interest, (2) delineation of the domain into ecologically meaningful zones, (3) identification of the appropriate landscape units, (4) categorization of alien species and mapping of their distribution and abundance, and (5) definition of management options. The framework guides the determination of species distribution and abundance through successive, easily followed steps, providing the means for the assessment of areas of concern. We applied the framework to Kruger National Park (KNP) in South Africa. We recorded 231 invasive alien plant species (of which 79 were major invaders) in the domain. The KNP is facing increasing pressure from alien species in the upper regions of the drainage areas of neighboring watersheds. On the basis of the climatic modeling, we showed that most major riparian invaders have the ability to spread across the KNP should they be transported down the rivers. With this information, KNP managers can identify areas for proactive intervention, monitoring, and resource allocation. Even for a very large protected area such as the KNP, sustainable management of biodiversity will depend heavily on the response of land managers upstream managing alien plants. We suggest that this framework is applicable to plants and other passively dispersed species that invade protected areas situated at the end of a drainage basin.     

基于神经网络的活性污泥系统建模及其控制

针对松江污水厂污水处理活性污泥系统,采用神经网络技术进行建模试验研究,在对实际运行数据剔除异常数据后,将样本数据随机分成训练样本、检验样本和测试样本.用试凑法确定合理的神经网络隐层节点数,用检验样本实时监控训练过程从而避免"过训练"现象,用多次改变网络初始连接权值求得全局极小点,从而建立了泛化能力较好的基于神经网络的活性污泥系统数学模型.利用建立的神经网络模型,对活性污泥系统运行情况的仿真与控制进行了分析研究.示例研究表明:神经网络技术能较好地应用于活性污泥系统的建模与控制,有很好的理论与实践意义.