The value of energy efficiency programs for US residential and commercial buildings in a warmer world

US residential and commercial buildings were responsible for about 41 exajoules (EJ) of primary energy use per year in 2002, accounting for approximately 9% of the world fossil-fuel related anthropogenic carbon (C) emissions of 6.7 Gt that contribute to climate change. US Government-sponsored building energy efficiency research and implementation programs are focused on reducing energy consumption in US residential and commercial buildings and reducing these carbon (C) emissions. Although not specifically intended for adaptation to a warmer climate and less effective than under today’s cooler climate, these programs also could help reduce energy demand in a future warmer world. Warming scenarios projected by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 imply net overall decreases in both site energy and primary energy consumption in US residential and commercial buildings, largely because of the reduced need for heating. However, there would be as much as a 25% increase in building space cooling demand and a significant part of the increase could be offset by energy-efficiency improvements in buildings. Overall, in the US, buildings-related energy efficiency programs would reduce site energy consumption in buildings in the US by more than 2 EJ in 2020 and primary energy by more than 3.5 EJ, more than enough to offset the projected growth in cooling energy consumption due to climate change and growth in the US building stock. The savings would have an estimated annual net value at 2005 energy prices of between $45.0 and $47.3 billion to consumers.

Temporal variations and source apportionment of volatile organic compounds at an urban site in Shijiazhuang, China

Shijiazhuang, the city with the worst air quality in China, is suffering from severe ozone pollution in summer. As the key precursors of ozone generation, it is necessary to control the Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) pollution. To have a better understanding of the pollution status and source contribution, the concentrations of 117 ambient VOCs were analyzed from April to August 2018 in an urban site in Shijiazhuang. Results showed that the monthly average concentration of total VOCs was 66.27 ppbv, in which, the oxygenated VOCs (37.89%), alkanes (33.89%), and halogenated hydrocarbons (13.31%) were the main composite on. Eight major sources were identified using Positive Matrix Factorization modeling with an accurate VOCs emission inventory as inter-complementary methods revealed that the petrochemical industry (26.24%), other industrial sources (15.19%), and traffic source (12.24%) were the major sources for ambient VOCs in Shijiazhuang. The spatial distributions of major industrial activities emissions were identified by using geographic information statistics system, which illustrated the VOCs was mainly from the north and southeast of Shijiazhuang. The inverse trajectory analysis using Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) and Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) clearly demonstrated the features of pollutant transport to Shijiazhuang. These findings can provide references for local governments regarding control strategies to reduce VOCs emissions.     

气囊回收系统的着陆适应性仿真分析

目的提出一种气囊着陆缓冲等效分析方法,将有限元仿真和理论分析相结合,借助理论分析的优点实现对气囊回收系统着陆缓冲冲击性能快速评估的目的。方法首先建立气囊有限元模型,通过有限元分析获得载荷-压缩量曲线,根据曲线拟合出接触载荷与气囊压缩量的关系式。同时,利用高斯函数模拟斜坡,考虑一质量块和气囊以一定初速度竖直向下撞击到该坡面上,只考虑坡度大小和表面粗糙度对气囊冲击载荷的影响。最后,利用中心差分法计算出质量块的位移、速度以及加速度。结果在撞击点的坡度为0°,20.27°和31.24°时,得到理论的水平方向和竖直方向上的最大过载,与仿真输出的结果进行对照,在误差允许的范围内,理论与仿真结果一致。分析比较不同撞击点的坡度下水平和竖直方向最大过载以及气囊离开地面时的角速度。当撞击点坡度为0°时,水平方向最大过载为0,随着撞击点坡度增大,水平方向的最大过载逐渐增大;竖直方向最大过载的值最大,为224.5 m/s2,随着撞击点坡度增大,竖直方向的最大过载逐渐减小。当撞击点坡度为0°时,角速度为0,气囊离开地面时的角速度逐渐增大,其增幅在0°到20°之间较大。结论气囊着陆缓冲等效分析方法计算得到的结果与仿真得到的结果相一致,验证了该理论计算方法的有效性,因此可以利用该方法对缓冲气囊的冲击性能进行快速评估。     

FOREST HYDROLOGY ISSUES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: A CONSULTANT'S VIEWPOINT1

ABSTRACT: Forest hydrology should be a mature science with routine use of hydrological procedures to evaluate the effect of past, current and proposed harvesting practices on water resources. It is not. However, water users are pressuring forest managers to exercise their role in managing forested watersheds for water supply. Most forest managers are poorly equipped to carry out this role. Forestry schools need to ensure that their graduates, whether employed in forest management positions or as specialists in watershed management, understand that all forestry operations may affect instream or downstream water users. Specialists in forest hydrology should be fully aware of the following: (1) climate and watershed characteristics influence streamflow in separate ways; (2) forestry practices produce changes in water yield and quality, and that only these changes need to be evaluated to estimate their effects; (3) watershed storage is a critical factor in evaluating the effects of harvesting on streamflow; and (4) the effect of harvest on one watershed cannot be extrapolated to another without consideration of the processes affected. Research is needed to assist watershed managers in applying models to watersheds for which climate and streamflow data are insufficient. Research is also needed to incorporate climate, streamflow and other data for hydrological models into geographic information systems. Joint research projects are needed to develop physical relationships between stream channel characteristics of importance to fisheries biologists and streamflow characteristics affected by forest harvest.     

A SIMULATION OF RIVER-BASIN RESPONSE TO MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL FORCING: THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN EXPERIMENT (SRBEX)1

ABSTRACT: A mesoscale meteorological model, a surface hydrology model, and a ground-water hydrology model are linked to simulate the hydrographic response of a large river basin to a single storm. Synoptic climatology is employed to choose a representative hydro-climatic event. The mesoscale meteorological model uses three nested domains to simulate relatively high-resolution precipitation over a sub-basin of the Susquehanna River Basin. The hydrology models simulate surface runoff and ground-water baseflow using both analyzed and simulated precipitation. The hydrologic abstractions are handled using both Curve Number and Green-Ampt routines. To support the linkage of the numerical models, special attention is given to data resampling and reprojection. The mesoscale meteorological model simulation captures the spatial and temporal structure of the storm event, while the hydrology models represent the timing of the event well. The Curve Number method generates a realistic hydrograph with both analyzed and simulated precipitation. In contrast, the hydrographic response generated by the Green-Ampt routine is inferior. Several interrelated factors contribute to these results, including: the nature of the precipitation event chosen for the experiment; the tendency of the mesoscale meteorological model to underpredict low intensity, widespread precipitation in this case; and the influence of the surface soil-texture characteristics on infiltration rates.     

A RATING-CURVE METHOD FOR HYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS IN CONTAMINANT TRANSPORT MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Accurate prediction of hydrodynamics is of great importance to modeling contaminant transport and water quality in a river. Flow conditions are needed in estimating potential exposure contamination levels and the recovery time for a no-action alternative in contaminated sediments remediation. Considering highly meandering characteristics of the Buffalo River, New York, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was selected to route upstream flows through the 8-km river section with limited existing information based on the model's fully predictive capability and process-oriented feature. The model was employed to simulate changes in water depth and flow velocity with space and time in response to variation in flow rate and/or water surface elevation at boundaries for given bottom morphometry and initial conditions. Flow conditions of the river reach where historical flow data are not available were computed. A rating-curve approach was developed to meet continuous and event contaminant modeling needs. Rating curves (depth-discharge and velocity-discharge relationships) were constructed at selected stations from the 3-D hydrodynamic simulations of individual flow events. The curves were obtained as steady solutions to an unsteady problem. The rating-curve approach serves to link flow information provided by the hydrodynamic model to a contaminant transport model. With the approach, the linking problem resulting from incompatible model dimensions and grid sizes can be solved. The curves will be used to simulate sediment movement and to predict contaminant fate and transport in the river.     

MODELING TIDAL HYDRODYNAMICS OF SAN DIEGO BAY,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: In 1983, current data were collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration using mechanical current meters. During 1992 through 1996, acoustic Doppler current profilers as well as mechanical current meters and tide gauges were used. These measurements not only document tides and tidal currents in San Diego Bay, but also provide independent data sets for model calibration and verification. A high resolution (100-m grid), depth-averaged, numerical hydrodynamic model has been implemented for San Diego Bay to describe essential tidal hydrodynamic processes in the bay. The model is calibrated using the 1983 data set and verified using the more recent 1992–1996 data. Discrepancies between model predictions and field data in both model calibration and verification are on the order of the magnitude of uncertainties in the field data. The calibrated and verified numerical model has been used to quantify residence time and dilution and flushing of contaminant effluent into San Diego Bay. Furthermore, the numerical model has become an important research tool in ongoing hydrodynamic and water quality studies and in guiding future field data collection programs.     

NORMALIZED UNIT HYDROGRAPH AGGREGATION1

ABSTRACT: The unit hydrograph is a common tool in hydraulic design. Used correctly, it allows a design engineer to estimate a runoff hydrograph from a drainage basin given a rainfall event. The typical method for estimating a unit hydrograph for a gaged watershed is by deconvolution. However, distinct storms produce different unit hydrographs for a single watershed. Consequently, a design engineer usually develops a composite, or average, unit hydrograph based on several recorded storm events. Common methods for estimating this composite unit hydrograph include curve fitting, simple aggregation, and multistorm optimization techniques. This paper introduces a new method to perform aggregation of unit hydrographs. The method is an extension to the simple averaging technique, in which prior to averaging, the individual unit hydrograph time ordinates are normalized with respect to the average time to peak. The normalization method is compared to a simple averaging technique and two multistorm aggregation techniques at six rural watersheds in Alabama. The results indicate that on average the normalization method predicts runoff nearly as accurately as the multistorm techniques, and displays improvement for 60 percent of the storms tested when compared with the simple averaging technique.     

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF LINEAR AND NONLINEAR TIME SERIES MODELS FOR WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Surface water quality data are routinely collected in river basins by state or federal agencies. The observed quality of river water generally reflects the overall quality of the ecosystem of the river basin. Advanced statistical methods are often needed to extract valuable information from the vast amount of data for developing management strategies. Among the measured water quality constituents, total phosphorus is most often the limiting nutrient in freshwater aquatic systems. Relatively low concentrations of phosphorus in surface waters may create eutrophication problems. Phosphorus is a non-conservative constituent. Its time series generally exhibits nonlinear behavior. Linear models are shown to be inadequate. This paper presents a nonlinear state-dependent model for the phosphorous data collected at DeSoto, Kansas. The nonlinear model gives significant reductions in error variance and forecasting error as compared to the best linear autoregressive model identified.     

MODELING THE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS OF FOREST HARVESTING ON FLORIDA FLATWOODS1

ABSTRACT: The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flat-woods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The FLATWOODS model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites in north central Florida. Three harvesting treatments (Wetland Harvesting, Wetland + Upland Harvesting, and Control) under three typical climatic conditions (dry, wet, and normal precipitation years) were simulated to study the potential first-year effects of common forest harvesting activities on flatwoods. Long-term (15 years) simulation was conducted to evaluate the hydrologic impacts at different stages of stand rotation. This simulation study concludes that forest harvesting has substantial effects on hydrology during dry periods and clear cutting of both wetlands and uplands has greater influence on the water regimes than partial harvesting. Compared to hilly regions, forest harvesting in the Florida coastal plains has less impact on water yield.