The Kyoto Protocol and non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Sinks

Many trace constituents other than carbon dioxide affect the radiative budget of the atmosphere. The existing international agreement to limit greenhouse gases, the Kyoto Protocol, includes carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) and credit for some carbon sinks. We investigate technological options for reducing emissions of these gases and the economic implications of including other greenhouse gases and sinks in the climate change control policy. We conduct an integreated assessment of costs using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model combined with estimates of abatement costs for non-CO₂ greenhouse gases and sinks. We find that failure to take advantage of the other gas and sink flexibility would nearly double aggregate Annex B costs. Including all the GHGs and sinks is actually cheaper than if only CO₂ had been included in the Protocol and their inclusion achieves greater overall abatement. There remains considerable uncertainty in these estimates, the magnitude of the savings depends heavily on reference projections of emissions, for example, but these uncertainties do not change the overall conclusion that non-CO₂ GHGs are an important part of a climate control policy.     

An Analysis with the CERT Model of the FSU Market Power in the Carbon Emissions Trading Market

This paper aims to assess the consequences of the amendments made to the Kyoto Protocol during COP 7 in Marrakech. The major issue of hot air and CDM transaction costs is examined using the CERT model to show that primary supply regions, typically those with hot air availability, might control the emissions reduction permit supply market and maximise net export revenues of permit supply by withholding 40 to 60% of available hot air credits. The assumption that primary permit suppliers control permit price via a restriction of hot air supply to the market will inadvertently leave a portion of the market share open to non-Annex B CDM supply, despite potentially extreme variance in CDM transaction costs. A summary table of policy implications on the emissions reduction permit market is also included.     

Competing conservation goals, biodiversity or ecosystem services: element losses and species recruitment in a managed moorland-bracken model system

Conservation management in Europe is often geared towards restoring semi-natural ecosystems, where the objective is to reverse succession and re-establish early-successional communities, to comply with national and international conservation targets. At the same time, it is increasingly recognised that ecosystems provide services that contribute to other, possibly conflicting policy requirements. Few attempts have been made to define these conflicts. Here, we assess some potential conflicts using a Calluna vulgaris-dominated moorland invaded by bracken (Pteridium aquilinum) as a model system, where the current policy is to reverse this process and restore moorland. We examined impacts of bracken control treatments on services (stocks and losses of C and mineral nutrients), litter turnover and biodiversity within a designed experiment over 7 years. Bracken litter was >2000 g m(-2) in untreated plots, and treatments reduced this quantity, and its element content, to varying degrees. Cutting twice per year was the most successful treatment in reducing bracken litter and its element content, increasing litter turnover, and increasing both mass and diversity of non-bracken vegetation. Diversity was greatest where bracken litter had been reduced, but species composition was also influenced by light sheep grazing. There was a significant loss of some chemical elements from bracken that could not be accounted for in other pools, and hence potentially lost from the system. In absolute terms large amounts of C and N were lost, but when expressed as a percentage of the total amount in the system, Mg was potentially more important with losses of almost a third of the Mg in the surface soil-vegetation system. There is, therefore, a potential dilemma between controlling a mid-successional invasive species for conservation policy objectives, especially when that species has evolved to sequester nutrients, and the negative effect of increasing environmental costs in terms of carbon accounting required, the potential input of nutrients to aquatic systems, and long-term nutrient loss. There is, therefore, a need to balance conservation goals against potential damage to biogeochemical structure and function.     

Greenhouse gas emissions in Canada and Japan: sector-specific estimates and managerial and economic implications

Many firms generate large amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases when they burn fossil fuels in their production processes. In addition, production of raw materials and other inputs the firms procure for their operations also generates greenhouse gases indirectly. These direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions occur in many sectors of our economies. In this paper, we first present sector-specific estimates for such greenhouse gas emissions. We then show that estimates for such sector-specific greenhouse gas emissions are often required for various types of corporate as well as public policy analyses in both domestic and international contexts. Measuring greenhouse gas emissions resulting from firms' multi-stage production processes in a multi-sector context is relevant for policies related to the Kyoto protocol, an international agreement to limit global greenhouse gas emissions. For example, since the protocol allows firms to engage in trading and offsetting of their greenhouse gas emissions across national borders, provided that emissions are correctly measured, the firms can take advantage of such trading schemes by placing their energy-intensive production facilities globally and strategically. We present several case studies which illustrate the importance of this and other aspects of greenhouse gas emissions in firms' environmental management. We also argue that our modeling and estimation methods based on input-output analyses are suitable for the types of research goals we have in this paper. Our methods are applied to data for Canada and Japan in a variety of environmental management circumstances.     

Modelling soil carbon development in Swedish coniferous forest soils—An uncertainty analysis of parameters and model estimates using the GLUE method

Boreal forest soils such as those in Sweden contain a large active carbon stock. Hence, a relatively small change in this stock can have a major impact on the Swedish national CO₂ balance. Understanding of the uncertainties in the estimations of soil carbon pools is critical for accurately assessing changes in carbon stocks in the national reports to UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. Our objective was to analyse the parameter uncertainties of simulated estimates of the soil organic carbon (SOC) development between 1994 and 2002 in Swedish coniferous forests with the Q model. Both the sensitivity of model parameters and the uncertainties in simulations were assessed. Data of forests with Norway spruce, Scots pine and Lodgepole pine, from the Swedish Forest Soil Inventory (SFSI) were used. Data of 12 Swedish counties were used to calibrate parameter settings; and data from another 11 counties to validate. The “limits of acceptability” within GLUE were set at the 95% confidence interval for the annual, mean measured SOC at county scale. The calibration procedure reduced the parameter uncertainties and reshaped the distributions of the parameters county-specific. The average measured and simulated SOC amounts varied from 60 t C ha⁻¹ in northern to 140 t C ha⁻¹ in the southern Sweden. The calibrated model simulated the soil carbon pool within the limits of acceptability for all calibration counties except for one county during one year. The efficiency of the calibrated model varied strongly; for five out of 12 counties the model estimates agreed well with measurements, for two counties agreement was moderate and for five counties the agreement was poor. The lack of agreement can be explained with the high inter-annual variability of the down-scaled measured SOC estimates and changes in forest areas over time. We conclude that, although we succeed in reducing the uncertainty in the model estimates, calibrating of a regional scale process-oriented model using a national scale dataset is a sensitive balance between introducing and reducing uncertainties. Parameter distributions showed to be scale sensitive and county specific. Further analysis of uncertainties in the methods used for reporting SOC changes to the UNFCCC and Kyoto protocol is recommended.     

Economic Growth and Biodiversity Loss in an Age of Tradable Permits

Abstract:  Tradable permits are increasingly becoming part of environmental policy and conservation programs. The efficacy of tradable permit schemes in addressing the root cause of environmental decline—economic growth—will not be achieved unless the schemes cap economic activity based on ecological thresholds. Lessons can be learned from the largest tradable permit scheme to date, emissions trading now being implemented with the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol caps neither greenhouse gas emissions at a level that will achieve climate stability nor economic growth. If patterned after the Kyoto Protocol, cap-and-trade schemes for conservation will not ameliorate biodiversity loss either because they will not address economic growth. In response to these failures to cap economic growth, professional organizations concerned about biodiversity conservation should release position statements on economic growth and ecological thresholds. The statements can then be used by policy makers to infuse these positions into the local, national, and international environmental science-policy process when these schemes are being developed. Infusing language into the science-policy process that calls for capping economic activity based on ecological thresholds represents sound conservation science. Most importantly, position statements have a greater potential to ameliorate biodiversity loss if they are created and released than if this information remains within professional organizations because there is the potential for these ideas to be enacted into law and policy.     

Land Use,Land-Use Change,Forestry, and Agricultural Activities in the Clean Development Mechanism: Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Offset Potential

Activities involving land use, land-use change,forestry, and agriculture (LUCF) can help reducegreenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphereby increasing biotic carbon storage, by decreasing GHGemissions, and by producing biomass as a substitutefor fossil fuels. Potential activities includereducing rates of deforestation, increasing landdevoted to forest plantations, regenerating secondaryforest, agroforestry, improving the management offorests and agricultural areas; and producing energycrops.Policymakers debating the inclusion of a variety ofLUCF activities in the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol need to consider themagnitude of the carbon contribution these activitiescould make. Existing estimates of the cumulative GHGoffset potential of LUCF activities often take aglobal or regional approach. In contrast, land-usedecisions are usually made at the local level anddepend on many factors including productive capacityof the land, financial considerations of thelandowner, and environmental concerns. Estimates ofGHG offset potential made at a local, or at mostcountry, level that incorporate these factors may belower, as well as more useful for policy analyses,than global or large regional estimates. Whilecountry-level estimates exist for forestry activities,similar estimates utilizing local information need tobe generated for agricultural activities and biofuels,as well as for the cumulative potential of all LUCFactivities in a particular location.     

Humic substances. Part III. sorptive interactions with environmental chemicals†

The formation of covalent binding to DNA of a carcinogen is now widely accepted to represent a classical mechanism of tumour induction in mammals. This mechanism does not operate with metals since no covalent binding of these agents to DNA does occur. Nevertheless, somatic mutations as typical consequences of DNA‐damage have been reported to be induced by metals in various model systems. Beside DNA‐alkylation such damages can be caused by changes in the conformation of DNA or in the fidelity of DNA‐repair. The activity of the repair enzymes DNA‐polymerases is indeed impaired by many metal ions at least in vitro. It is not yet established whether these mechanisms are also important in the intact mammalian organism. Much evidence has accumulated during the last years that a disturbance of the balance of cations and especially metal ions represents another possible mechanism of tumour induction. The tumours found with high doses of chelating agents such as nitrilo‐triacetic acid (NTA) have to be discussed in this context. Since most—if not—all of the speculative mechanisms of metal carcinogenesis resemble classical pharmacological reactions the existence of a threshold level is likely. So metal carcinogenesis will not be a problem of the environmental contamination at trace levels but a problem of occupational medicine.     

Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Finland: Methods for Estimating Forcing of a Country or an Activity

The objective of this study was to assess the radiative forcing due to Finnish anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in three scenarios. All the Kyoto Protocol gases, i.e., CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, and fluorinated gases, were included. The calculations showed that forcing due to Finnish emissions will increase in the case of all gases except methane by the year 2100. In 1990, radiative forcing due to Finland's emission history of all Kyoto Protocol gases was 3.2 mW/m², of which 71% was due to carbon dioxide, 17% to methane, and the rest to nitrous oxide. In 1990 the share of fluorinated gases was negligible. The share of methane in radiative forcing is decreasing, whereas the shares of carbon dioxide and of fluorinated gases are increasing and that of nitrous oxide remains nearly constant. The nonlinear features concerning additional concentrations in the atmosphere and radiative forcing due to emissions caused by a single country or activity are also considered. Radiative forcing due to Finnish emissions was assessed with two different approaches, the marginal forcing approach and the averaged forcing approach. The impact of the so-called background scenario, i.e., the scenario for concentration caused by global emissions, was also estimated. The difference between different forcing models at its highest was 40%, and the averaged forcing approach appeared to be the more recommendable. The effect of background concentrations in the studied cases was up to 11%. Hence, the choice of forcing model and background scenario should be given particular attention.     

中国工业废水处理过程CDM项目机会研究

文章通过对联合国环境署制订的用于工业废水处理项目中实施清洁发展机制（CDM）合格性识别的方法学进行分析,以及根据项目建议书和官方网站信息统计归纳的国外工业废水处理项目CDM开发的成功案例,并结合中国工业废水氧化塘处理法的现状情况,对中国工业废水尤其是高浓度有机废水处理中CDM项目开发机会进行了探索性的研究,提出在食品工业尤其是酒精废水、淀粉废水、酿酒废水的处理过程中开展CDM项目的可行性。以此对中国工业废水中CDM项目的未来开发情况进行了设想与建议。