从拒绝《京都议定书》看美国政府环境外交意图

作为国际社会最具影响力的环境协约,《京都议定书》却被美国政府拒之门外,通过对美国近年来针对该协约的态度及对全球变暖问题的外交举措分析,可以看出,美国政府环境外交行为的意图主要体现在三个方面,即规避不利条款的束缚;设计和实施替代性方案;积极争取国际环境领域的领导地位。     

国际碳交易市场发展对中国的启示

中国是世界第二大温室气体排放国,是全世界核证减排量(CERs)一级市场上最大供应国,但在碳交易过程中却处在整个碳交易产业链的最低端,只是碳交易市场的参加者,碳交易市场规则的执行者.中国为全球碳交易市场创造的巨大减排量被发达国家以低价购买后,包装、开发成价格更高的金融产品在国外进行交易.作为世界上最大的排放权供应国之一,中国没有一个像欧美那样的国际碳交易市场,不利于争夺碳交易的定价权.本文具体阐述了国际主要的碳交易市场的交易主体、交易类型、交易数量、交易额等发展状况,通过分析归纳出现阶段国际碳交易市场的特点,并以此为基础将国内碳交易市场和国际碳交易市场进行比较得出中国碳交易市场现阶段存在的缺陷,相应的提出了完善中国碳交易市场的启示,即完善碳交易市场的制度建设,完善碳交易体系,加强对CDM项目开发的研究,调动金融机构参与碳交易的主动性,统一国内碳排放标准.     

The EU effect: does trade with the EU reduce CO2 emissions in the developing world?

The European Union (EU) is an important destination for developing country exports. Has the EU’s commitment to the Kyoto Protocol induced developing countries to reduce their carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions? Our analyses of 136 developing countries from 1981 through 2007 suggests that: developing countries’ export dependence on the EU is associated with CO₂ emission reductions post-Kyoto in relation to the pre-Kyoto time period; this also holds for SO_2, which, while not covered under Kyoto, is linked with CO₂ emission levels; this does not hold for PM₁₀, a pollutant which is not covered under Kyoto and is not directly associated with CO₂ emissions related to industrial activities; developing countries’ export dependence on non-EU developed countries and on the rest of the world is not associated with significant reductions in emissions between pre- and post-Kyoto for these pollutants . In sum, even in the absence of binding regulatory mandates, the EU appears to exert market leverage to project its regulatory preferences abroad.     

清洁发展机制(CDM)实践及理论研究进展

清洁发展机制(CDM)是《京都议定书》(KP)中规定的发达国家与发展中国家之间的温室气体减排合作方式。随着2005年2月26日KP的生效,CDM实施活动在全球范围内开始全面展开。中国被公认为是温室气体减排潜力最大的国家,具有广阔的开展CDM合作的前景。为了能配合国内CDM的实践活动,本文在大量文献及重要文件研究基础上,总结了CDM诞生10年来的实践及理论发展情况,并分析了CDM今后的发展趋势。     

从海牙气候会议的失败看全球环境合作的障碍

文章在介绍海牙气候会议背景的基础上,分析了会议上产生的分歧,全球环境合作的障碍。同时,阐述了会议的尖锐矛盾和激烈斗争预示的中国今后在环境与发展问题上将面临的严峻挑战,并对此提出需要采取的有效对策。     

Measuring and explaining the EU’s effect on national climate performance

ABSTRACT

To what extent has the European Union (EU) had a benign or retarding effect on what its member states would have undertaken in the absence of EU climate policies during 2008–2012? A measurement tool for the EU policy’s effect is developed and shows a benign average EU effect with considerable variation across countries. The EU’s policy effectiveness vis-à-vis its member states is explained by the EU’s non-compliance mechanism, the degree of usage of the Kyoto flexible mechanisms, and national pre-Kyoto emission reduction goals. Time-series cross-sectional analyses show that the EU’s non-compliance mechanism has no effect, while the ex-ante plans for using Kyoto flexible mechanisms and/or the ambitious pre-Kyoto emission reduction targets allow member states to escape constraints imposed by EU climate policy.     

Achieving the Kyoto Protocol in the U.S.: How Great are the Needed Changes?

The Kyoto Protocol requires the U.S.to reduce the rate of emissions of six greenhousegases (GHG) to 93% of their 1990 rate and to achievethis target by the 2008 to 2012 commitment period. This study assesses the magnitude of change needed inthe U.S. economy and, specifically, in the U.S. energysector, to achieve and maintain the target establishedby the Kyoto Protocol. A simple carbon (C)emissions-energy model is explained in this analysisusing four key variables. Current and future trendsin C emissions are explained by: the carbon/energy(C/E) ratio, Gross Domestic Product growth, energyprices and an energy trend variable. Potential GHGmitigation policy actions affect C emissionsindirectly by affecting at least one of these keyvariables. The analysis concludes that reducingfossil energy use in the U.S. to meet the Kyoto GHGemissions reduction target would be very costly. Technological progress that reduces C emissions wouldnot be fully sufficient without prematurely abandoningproductive capital equipment. Energy price increasesof about 14% per year, or declines in economic growthof almost 5% per year, could reduce energy demand andassociated C emissions enough to achieve the terms ofthe Kyoto Protocol.     

Carbon values,reforestation, and `perverse' incentives under the Kyoto protocol: An empirical analysis

Economic incentives for sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) in forests may be an effective way to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol (KP). But concerns have been raised that the KP may create unintended incentives to excessively harvest existing forests if regenerated forests qualify for carbon (C) credits under the reforestation provision of Article 3.3. This paper combines an analytical model of the optimal forest rotation with both timber and C as priced outputs with data on timber and C growth and yield to different forest settings in the U.S. C prices of $50 per megagram (Mg) – the highest price evaluated– can considerably lengthen forest rotations (40 years or more), raise forest land values (as much as $1,900 per hectare), and sequester more C in the long run (up to 60 percent per acre), relative to the base case of no C compensation. However, if C payments are made for the regenerated stand only, in some situations, it is optimal to immediately harvest an otherwise premature stand at C prices as low as $20/Mg. The strength of perverse incentives to accelerate harvesting of existing forest varies by forest type, region, C price level, and institutional factors relevant to the compensation system. If C compensation were extended to existing stands, as may be possible under Article 3.4 of the KP, the perverse incentives for prematurely harvesting existing stands would not exist.     

UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism Baseline Construction for Vietnam National Electricity Grid

For projects under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a baseline has to be set to allow calculation of the greenhouse gas emissions reductions achieved. An important obstacle to CDM project development is the lack of data for baseline definition; often project developers do not have access to data and therefore incur high transaction costs to collect them. The government of Vietnam has set up all necessary institutions for CDM, wants to promote CDM projects and thus is interested to reduce transaction costs. We calculate emission factors of the Vietnam electricity grid according to the rules defined by the CDM Executive Board for small scale projects and for large renewable electricity generation projects. The emission factors lie between 365 and 899 g CO₂/kWh depending on the specification. The weighted operating and build margin reaches 600 g for 2003, while grid average reaches 399 g. Using three-year averages, a combined build and operating margin of 705 g is calculated. We hope that these data facilitate CDM project development in the electricity supply and energy efficiency improvement in Vietnam.     

宁镇山脉岩基的水平分带和垂直分带

宁镇山脉岩基中四个花岗岩类杂岩体具分带性。水平分带表现在单个杂岩体从边缘向核部的结晶顺序总是为:石英闪长岩→石英二长岩(花岗闪长岩)→二长花岗岩,斑晶含量随岩石酸度增加而降低,以致由斑状结构演化为等粒状结构,岩浆定位后的对流作用是这种水平分带的主要机理。与岩浆房内部对流结合起来的边界层环流作用使富钾流体在高位富集,导致晚期分异熔体从早期结晶外壳冲破出来移向高处而具垂直分带。认为每个杂岩体代表一批同源岩浆的演化系列或一个超单元。