全球二氧化碳排放权交易市场的分析与展望

京都议定书提出了发达国家削减二氧化碳排放量的具体目标及削减方案。因此二氧化碳排放权交易成为关注的热点。在对排放权交易市场的特性．作用及利害关系分析的基础上．提出排放权交易市场将带动一批相关的服务业发展。英国，日本在国内建立交易市场的动作和进展．值得重视和借鉴。     

Carbon values,reforestation, and `perverse' incentives under the Kyoto protocol: An empirical analysis

Economic incentives for sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) in forests may be an effective way to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol (KP). But concerns have been raised that the KP may create unintended incentives to excessively harvest existing forests if regenerated forests qualify for carbon (C) credits under the reforestation provision of Article 3.3. This paper combines an analytical model of the optimal forest rotation with both timber and C as priced outputs with data on timber and C growth and yield to different forest settings in the U.S. C prices of $50 per megagram (Mg) – the highest price evaluated– can considerably lengthen forest rotations (40 years or more), raise forest land values (as much as $1,900 per hectare), and sequester more C in the long run (up to 60 percent per acre), relative to the base case of no C compensation. However, if C payments are made for the regenerated stand only, in some situations, it is optimal to immediately harvest an otherwise premature stand at C prices as low as $20/Mg. The strength of perverse incentives to accelerate harvesting of existing forest varies by forest type, region, C price level, and institutional factors relevant to the compensation system. If C compensation were extended to existing stands, as may be possible under Article 3.4 of the KP, the perverse incentives for prematurely harvesting existing stands would not exist.     

Achieving the Kyoto Protocol in the U.S.: How Great are the Needed Changes?

The Kyoto Protocol requires the U.S.to reduce the rate of emissions of six greenhousegases (GHG) to 93% of their 1990 rate and to achievethis target by the 2008 to 2012 commitment period. This study assesses the magnitude of change needed inthe U.S. economy and, specifically, in the U.S. energysector, to achieve and maintain the target establishedby the Kyoto Protocol. A simple carbon (C)emissions-energy model is explained in this analysisusing four key variables. Current and future trendsin C emissions are explained by: the carbon/energy(C/E) ratio, Gross Domestic Product growth, energyprices and an energy trend variable. Potential GHGmitigation policy actions affect C emissionsindirectly by affecting at least one of these keyvariables. The analysis concludes that reducingfossil energy use in the U.S. to meet the Kyoto GHGemissions reduction target would be very costly. Technological progress that reduces C emissions wouldnot be fully sufficient without prematurely abandoningproductive capital equipment. Energy price increasesof about 14% per year, or declines in economic growthof almost 5% per year, could reduce energy demand andassociated C emissions enough to achieve the terms ofthe Kyoto Protocol.     

宁镇山脉岩基的水平分带和垂直分带

宁镇山脉岩基中四个花岗岩类杂岩体具分带性。水平分带表现在单个杂岩体从边缘向核部的结晶顺序总是为:石英闪长岩→石英二长岩(花岗闪长岩)→二长花岗岩,斑晶含量随岩石酸度增加而降低,以致由斑状结构演化为等粒状结构,岩浆定位后的对流作用是这种水平分带的主要机理。与岩浆房内部对流结合起来的边界层环流作用使富钾流体在高位富集,导致晚期分异熔体从早期结晶外壳冲破出来移向高处而具垂直分带。认为每个杂岩体代表一批同源岩浆的演化系列或一个超单元。     

Reside0ntial solar water heating as a potential Clean Development Mechanism project: A South African case study

A community-based Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project – asolar water heating project in a low-income community in South Africa –is analysed to illustrate the methodological and policy challenges that faceimplementation of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change. We evaluate four baseline options, andthree potential CDM interventions. The emissions reductions range from –670 to +5 929 Mg CO₂ per year, with all option but oneshowing positive emission reductions. Using metered solar water heatingwith liquefied petroleum gas back-up as the CDM intervention, and electricstorage geysers as the baseline, the annual emissions reductions are 5686 Mg CO₂. The cost-effectiveness from the national perspective,which is the incremental life cycle costs divided by the lifetime emissionsreductions, is –$18 per Mg CO₂ From the perspective of theCDM investor, however, the cost-effectiveness is $5.2 per mgCO₂, assuming that the investor receives all of the carbon credits forproviding the incremental capital investment. From our analysis, weconclude that using the current technology (kerosene stoves) as a baselineis probably not appropriate because it does not reflect likely future trendsand also penalises the community for their poverty and current lack ofinfrastructure. We also highlight the importance of credit sharing, and howit affects the cost-effectiveness of the project from the CDM investor'sperspective. The lessons from this analysis are important for the currentinternational policy debate on how to preferentially treat small-scale CDMprojects.     

UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism Baseline Construction for Vietnam National Electricity Grid

For projects under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a baseline has to be set to allow calculation of the greenhouse gas emissions reductions achieved. An important obstacle to CDM project development is the lack of data for baseline definition; often project developers do not have access to data and therefore incur high transaction costs to collect them. The government of Vietnam has set up all necessary institutions for CDM, wants to promote CDM projects and thus is interested to reduce transaction costs. We calculate emission factors of the Vietnam electricity grid according to the rules defined by the CDM Executive Board for small scale projects and for large renewable electricity generation projects. The emission factors lie between 365 and 899 g CO₂/kWh depending on the specification. The weighted operating and build margin reaches 600 g for 2003, while grid average reaches 399 g. Using three-year averages, a combined build and operating margin of 705 g is calculated. We hope that these data facilitate CDM project development in the electricity supply and energy efficiency improvement in Vietnam.     

Carbon trading across sources and periods constrained by the Marrakesh Accords

We examine the potential effects on permit prices and abatement costs of four compliance rules governing emissions trade across sources and periods in the Kyoto Protocol: The banking rule that allows excess permits to be used later; the restoration rate rule that penalizes borrowing; the commitment period reserve rule that limits sales; and finally, the suspension rule that restricts borrowing and sales. Our framework is a two-period model where parties may be out of compliance in the Kyoto period, but are assumed to comply at a later time. Under varying assumptions about market power and US participation, we find that the rules may have pronounced effects on individual costs, but overall efficiency is not severely affected.     

中国清洁发展机制法律制度探讨

根据《京都议定书》关于清洁发展机制(Clean Development Mechanism,CDM)的目标、设立条件、步骤和监管制度的规定,指出了中国在实施清洁发展机制中所获得的环境、社会和经济方面的巨大利益,同时,也分析了目前中国实施清洁发展机制在项目发展规模、潜在项目识别、额外行证明、CER法律权属界定、项目签发等方面存在的问题。文章结合国际社会清洁发展制度的趋势走向,预测在今后相当长的时期内清洁发展机制仍将作为全球温室气体减排的有效制度而存在,并将对CDM宗旨重新定位和完善CDM项目具体实施制度。还根据国际形势变化,对2012年后中国清洁发展机制的法律制度建设提出了具体的建议:应尽快出台一部能源基本法,使得包括清洁能源机制在内的应对气候变化的措施能够有法可依。立法中应重点确立能源可持续发展原则,具体规定CDM项目适格标准、改变传统一元所有权模式,明确CER法律权属和所有权、完善CDM项目监管制度,以限制CDM项目单纯追求经济效益的危险性、加强CDM服务行业规范,提高CER签发率。     

潜流人工湿地系统对污染物的去除与转化机理

潜流人工湿地通过硝化、反硝化、累积、降解、络合、吸附、沉淀、拦截等作用实现对去污水中TSS、有机物、N、P、金属以及病原菌的去除。这些作用发生在水体中、植物表面、湿地表面和底部的垃圾积累物中,或发生在根区系统而使污染物得以去除。     

Reaching National Kyoto Targets in Germany and Sustainable Development

Within this paper, we analyze the fulfillment of the Kyoto emissions reduction commitment particularly in Germany and its implication on the long-term paths of all macro-variables. Germany, like all other industrial or Annex-B countries, must reduce its emissions by 2010 according to what we call a Kyoto Forever scenario. We specifically investigate tradable permits as reduction measures in a national overlapping generations (OLG) model, where we change the discounting technique by using generation adjusted discounting (GAD) in comparison to conventional OLG discounting. We show that within our model framework Germany is able to develop along growing paths of, for example, gross domestic product (GDP) in sharp contrast to conventional results of OLG simulations. At the same time, current generations must share higher burdens in terms of lower GDP, per capita consumption and employment which can be initially interpreted as contemporary costs for reaching sustainable paths and, second, contributions for internalizing external effects. However, all costs in terms of lower macro-variables for current living generations are re-compensated through higher future values. This effect can be interpreted as an intergenerational application of full cost bearance, or, in other words, the polluter pays principle which is oriented towards sustainability of greenhouse gases abatement.