An algorithm for assessing the risk of traffic accident

INTRODUCTION: This study is aimed at developing an algorithm to estimate the number of traffic accidents and assess the risk of traffic accidents in a study area. METHOD: The algorithm involves a combination of mapping technique (Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques) and statistical methods (cluster analysis and regression analysis). Geographical Information System is used to locate accidents on a digital map and realize their distribution. Cluster analysis is used to group the homogeneous data together. Regression analysis is performed to realize the relation between the number of accident events and the potential causal factors. Negative binomial regression model is found to be an appropriate mathematical form to mimic this relation. Accident risk of the area, derived from historical accident records and causal factors, is also determined in the algorithm. The risk is computed using the Empirical Bayes (EB) approach. A case study of Hong Kong is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. RESULTS: The results show that the algorithm improves accident risk estimation when comparing to the estimated risk based on only the historical accident records. The algorithm is found to be more efficient, especially in the case of fatality and pedestrian-related accident analysis. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The output of the proposed algorithm can help authorities effectively identify areas with high accident risk. In addition, it can serve as a reference for town planners considering road safety.     

Value to wildlife of urban-agricultural parks: a case study from Rome urban area

Urban-agricultural parks could have some advantages to wildlife because of less intensive agricultural procedures, absence of hunting pressure, and reduced human disturbance. In this study, the breeding and wintering bird communities and the small mammal community in an urban-agricultural park of Rome were compared to those of a close urban park and a close agricultural area just outside the city. The aim was to assess the best destination and management of wildlife in natural areas at the urban–rural interface. Richness and diversity of bird communities were higher in the urban-agricultural park. Due to habitat features and probably human disturbances, but not to urbanization, predation, and competition factors, the urban park drastically reduces the abundance of decreasing open-land bird species. Abundance of these species was not significantly different in the urban-agricultural park and in the agricultural area. In the urban-agricultural and urban park, bird and mammal pest species were more abundant than they were in the agricultural area. Regarding decreasing abundance of small mammal species, no significant difference among the study areas was observed. Urban-agricultural park is a better choice than urban park for wildlife. Thus, a higher number of preserved urban natural areas should be devoted to urban-agricultural parks. However, to increase the abundance of open-land species and in general wildlife, a less intensive management of cultivated and pasture patches is necessary.     

The Information Cycle as a Framework for Defining Information Goals for Water-Quality Monitoring

/ The necessity to tailor information becomes increasingly urgent as the information revolution continues to generate ever-increasing flows of data and so-called information. From European experiences, a new approach for monitoring system design is suggested in this paper. In this approach, careful and detailed specification of information needs is a major contributing factor to the effectiveness of information products. To develop better specifications for information products, the process of collecting and transforming data into useful information requires careful thought and guidance. A dialogue between information users on one hand and information producers on the other is essential. This dialogue can be based on the information cycle, describing the continuous process from specifying information needs for water management and a strategy to collect information through data collection and data analysis up to utilization of information by water management. By following the respective steps in the information cycle, the process of information gathering can be completed. The cyclic character provides a quantitative means of connecting monitoring system design and operations with the information expectations and/or products required by management.     

Multiresource simulation for wildland management

The model presented here is a simulation of the watershed of the Little South Fork of the Cache la Poudre River system located in the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. This simulation model, TERRA, provides information of resource interactions, ecosystem processes, and harvest ramifications for this watershed. The information is generated through sets of difference equations to represent process flows. The model has a modular design that separates the ecologic processes—weather conditions, hydrologic functions, forage and timber production, wildlife and domestic population dynamics, recreation use, and management activities—from the simulation planning overhead—updating, plotting, and printing.The model is designed such that the output is readily usable information for an allocation model and the decision-making process. This is accomplished by allowing different levels of specified management activities as input and producing responses and output on a per unit land area basis.This simulation is a useful research tool for estimating parameter and variable values and levels of management-resource interaction. Lack of a pertinent field data base inhibits the model from actually being used as a management tool in the planning process.Submitted for publication as Paper No. 1217 in the Journal Series of the Agricultural Experiment Station, University of Florida.     

Grassy balds of the Great Smoky Mountains: Their history and flora in relation to potential management

The origin of the grassy balds of the Great Smoky Mountains is examined. Some of the areas were cleared by settlers. Grazing by sheep and cattle and the cutting of trees were probably the most important factors in maintaining the grass sward; fire apparently was not used.Vegetation survey plots indicated that little of the original balds' area was still grassy and that most of the invading trees and shrubs could be expected to sprout if cut or burned. Areas presently trampled or mowed had a flora similar to a bald that was still grazed. High-elevation burn scars had many species in common with the grassy balds but had dissimilar community structures; therefore, a policy favoring natural fires would be unlikely to encourage maintanence or formation of grassy balds.The management of open grassy areas on National Forest lands was investigated. Burning was the favored technique, although hand cutting, mowing, and grazing were used. The results of testing various management practices on Gregory Bald are reviewed in terms of cost, impact, and historical authenticity. Implications for park management are discussed.     

A conceptual model for response to Arctic oil spills

The potential for oil spills in Arctic regions has increased significantly because of the development of petroleum resources. Response to an oil spill in the Arctic is likely to be much slower than that in the temperate region because of the remoteness of the area and its severe climate. In the face of these unique problems, accurate prediction of the extent and subsequent movement of an oil spill is vital to any cleanup effort. Presented is the framework of a program to study the movement of oil spills in the Arctic. Existing models of oil spreading and polar ice dynamics are reviewed and areas where new model development is required are defined. A system design is developed that may be used for developing a plan to act in the event of a major spill.     

The role of fish and fisheries in recovering from natural hazards: Lessons learned from Vanuatu

Coastal fisheries provide staple food and sources of livelihood in Pacific Island countries, and securing a sustainable supply is recognised as a critical priority for nutrition security. This study sought to better understand the role of fish for Pacific Island communities during disasters and in disaster recovery. To evaluate community impacts and responses after natural disasters, focus group discussions were held with men and women groups at ten sites across Shefa, Tafea, Malampa and Sanma provinces in Vanuatu. The combined impacts of category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam (TC-Pam) in March 2015 and prolonged El-Niño induced drought have had a profound impact across much of Vanuatu. Terrestrial systems had been disproportionately impacted with substantial shortages in drinking water, garden crops, cash crops and damage to infrastructure. Localized impacts were noted on marine environments from TC-Pam and the drought, along with an earthquake that uplifted reef and destroyed fishing grounds in Malampa province. Communities in Malampa and Shefa provinces also noted a crown-of-thorns outbreak that caused coral mortality. The significant reduction in terrestrial-based food and income generation capacity generally led to increased reliance on marine resources to cope and a shift in diets from local garden food to rice. However, limited market access, lack of fishing skills and technology in many sectors of the community reduced the capacity for marine resources to support recovery. A flexible management approach allowed protected areas and species to be utilized as reservoirs of food and income when temporarily opened to assist recovery. These findings illustrate that fish and fisheries management is at the center of disaster preparedness and relief strategies in remote Pacific Island communities. High physical capital (e.g. infrastructure, water tanks and strong dwellings) is key for disaster preparedness, but supporting community social capital for the purpose of natural resource management and human capital for diverse adaptation skills can also improve community resilience. Recognizing the humanitarian value that well managed fisheries resources and skilled fishers can play to disaster relief adds another dimension to the imperative of improving management of coastal fisheries and aligning policies across sectors.     

职业安全卫生标准体系建设初探

职业安全卫生标准体系是企业安全科研生产工作的基础 ,是推广试行职业安全卫生管理体系 (OHSMS)的有效技术支撑条件。笔者通过分析职业安全卫生标准应用的实际 ,探索性地提出建立适应企业职业安全卫生管理、研究以及 OHSMS需要的标准化管理体系 ;论述并研讨该体系建立的思路、原则和查询方法以及应用过程的管理 ;以此为职业安全卫生管理、研究和试行OHSMS奠定基础并提供有益的帮助。     

Using participatory geographic approaches for urban flood risk in Santiago de Chile: Insights from a governance analysis

Studies based on information acquired by participative geographic approaches have sought to cope with emergency situations and disasters such as floods. However, the impact of these approaches to flood risk governance systems in order to understand these types of events as a complete risk cycle is still not clear. This paper focuses on analysing the governance possibilities of using participative geographic information like volunteered and public participatory geographic information for flood risk reduction in the case of Santiago de Chile, a city which regularly experiences urban floods during rainy seasons. Based on in-depth interviews and document analysis, our study indicates that a relevant part of the current information used for flood risk reduction efforts is provided to local and regional authorities by the affected population. Though, local actors are not recognized by central agencies as valid agents for the production of official information. Moreover, there are neither instances of communication or deliberation with the community, which reduces the capacity of local actors to discuss possible solutions. Participative geographic instruments are seen as potential mechanisms to strengthen work relations among local actors and authorities, by enhancing new logics for producing and sharing information. The impacts for the current risk governance system though can be diverse depending on the participants' level of commitment of participants and the political relations between actors and agencies. Considered as merely data acquisition and analysis mechanisms, participative instruments reproduce the existing hierarchical top-down structures. Furthermore, local-based approaches can enhance local work, support local diagnostics and increase the decision capacity of citizens.     

Policy integration for adaptive water governance: Learning from Scotland's experience

This paper contributes to on-going attempts at bringing together two influential ideas in water governance: Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) and adaptive governance. In particular, a tension remains between the call in IWRM for the use of formal institutions, such as river basin organisations, to secure public policy integration, and the assumptions in adaptive governance in favour of informal collaboration between essentially independent policy actors. To clarify this relationship, this article draws on theoretical research on public policy integration, and uses these insights in an empirical setting to identify mechanisms that can facilitate effective policy integration for adaptive water governance. The research is based on recent attempts in Scotland to implement IWRM ideas to improve flood management. Several governance mechanisms were adopted to facilitate the integration of flood, water and rural land use policies. Six Scottish policy regimes are analysed using documentary sources and interviews. Results challenge the idea that collaboration should primarily be built on either river basin organisations or informal mechanisms. We identify a mix of informal and statutory-based mechanisms which may secure political and technocratic commitment to policy integration.