从世界大河流域开发实践构想长江开发模式

通过分析世界大河流域开发的多种模式，研究可遵循的客观规律和存在问题。借鉴其经验教训，探讨充分有效开发长江流域的模式。提出“突出重点，综合利用，高效运作，协调发展”的战略思想，力争把长江流域建成我国的一级经济轴线和世界规模最大的现代化沿江产业带。     

Using many-objective trade-off analysis to help dams promote economic development,protect the poor and enhance ecological health

Allocating water to different uses implies trading off the benefits perceived by different sectors. This paper demonstrates how visualising the trade-offs implied by the best performing water management options helps balance water use benefits and find sustainable solutions. The approach consists of linking a water resources model that can simulate many management policies and track diverse measures of system performance, to a many-objective evolutionary optimisation algorithm. This generates the set of Pareto-optimal management alternatives for several simultaneous objectives. The relative performance of these efficient management alternatives is then visualised as trade-off curves or surfaces using visual analytic plots. Visually assessing trade-offs between benefits helps select policies that achieve a decision-maker-selected balance between different metrics of system performance. We apply this approach to a multi-reservoir water resource system in Brazil's semi-arid Jaguaribe basin where current water allocation procedures favour sectors with greater political power and technical knowledge. The case study identifies promising reservoir operating policies by exploring trade-offs between economic, ecological and livelihood benefits as well as traditional hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply. Results show optimised policies can increase allocations to downstream uses while increasing median land availability for the poorest farmers by 25%.     

洞庭湖区近50年土地利用/覆盖的变化研究

利用1978，1989，1998年的Landsat卫星遥感影像资料及20世纪50年代航测的地形图，研究了洞庭湖区近50年土地利用／覆盖及其景观结构的变化，土地利用／覆盖类型分为水体，湿地，农田，林地和建成区五类，各时期遥感影像的总体分类精度都在80％以上，运用ArcInfo和ArcView GIS软件，将不同时期的土地利用／覆盖格局在空间上清晰地显示出来，通过叠加4个不同时期的影像分类图，计算出各种土地利用／覆盖类型转变为其他土地利用／覆盖类型的比例，洞庭湖区50年来水体面积不断减少，减少量为1460km^2，其中1955年到1978年水面面积缩小了970。57km^2，分别为1978年到1989年和1989年到1998年缩小面积的2．23倍和1805倍，湿地面积逐渐增加，1998年湿地面积分别为1955，1978和1989年的1．46，1．41和1．09倍，农田的面积百分比从1955年的54．70％增加到1978年62．15％，又逐渐降低到1989年的51．88％和1998年的48．17％，林地的面积1978年比1955年减少了17％,，1989年比1978年增加了57％，1998年比1989年增加了11％，建成区的变化表明近50年来湖区城市化的进程，洞庭湖区土地利用／覆盖及其景观结构的变化是社会经济和自然因素综合作用的结果。     

Preimplantation genetic diagnosis using FISH for carriers of Robertsonian translocations: the Portuguese experience

Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) is an alternative to prenatal diagnosis for couples at risk of transmitting genetic disorders to their offspring. We present a fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis of embryos obtained after seven PGD cycles in six couples with Robertsonian translocations and male factor infertility: 4 der(13;14), 1 der(14;21) and 1 der(15;21). Of 74 metaphase II (MII) injected oocytes, 61 (82.4%) fertilized normally and cleaved. Of these, 37/61 (60.7%) embryos were of high morphological quality with ≥6 blastomeres. After biopsy of 44 embryos at day 3 of development, seven degenerated, seven arrested in development and 30/44 (68.2%) evolved, of which 25/30 (83.3%) reached the morula/blastocyst stage. Analysis of biopsied blastomeres showed 23/44 (52.3%) of normal/balanced embryos, of which 15 (11 at the morula/blastocyst stage) were transferred in six cycles. One term pregnancy was achieved, which ended by cesarean section at 37 weeks of gestation, giving birth to two healthy newborn. Analysis of 49 embryos (excluding 12 inconclusive cases) showed a predominance of alternate segregation (38/49, 77.6%) over adjacent segregation (7/49, 14.3%), with one (2%) being a polyploid mosaic and three (6.1%) chaotic. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sustainable Development and the Role of the Financial World

The incapacity to finance sustainable development through philanthropic official assistance turned the Johannesburg Summit to business world and the financial industry. Pioneering financial institutions – including development banks and private banks – have developed a wide range of innovations that can support sustainable development. This article highlights a few innovative products and markets and focuses on the progress made by financial players on the level of standards, metrics and guidelines to improve sustainability management systems, reporting and accounting practices and the multi-stakeholder dynamic. The role of the socially responsible investing (SRI) community has been underexposed by the Summit. Through its voice and market success, SRI has moved from a green market niche to the mainstream, however not becoming mainstream. The invaluable levering effect of SRI has just been discovered by authorities and market regulators and is becoming instrumental. In order to show the business case of Corporate Social Responsibility and to prove the financial viability of the People, Planet, Prosperity investing approach, the SRI community should critically reflect on its own quality assurance systems, sound disclosure and verification practices.     

滇池水华蓝藻干粉制剂的生物脱毒实验

滇池属长江流域的一个内陆湖泊，近年来水体富营养化日益严重，每年夏季都出现大面积的水华。由品种单一，主要为蓝藻门，其中微囊藻是优势种，产生的微囊藻毒素具有很强的毒性。本实验以富营养化湖湖滇池中的水华蓝藻作为主要原料，将其制成干粉后，利用双协菌株在28－32℃条件下对其进行固态发酵，培养基质初始水份为65％。发酵培养2d后，培养基质中微囊藻毒素含量明显降低，6d后，基质中微囊藻毒素含量未检出（最低浓度检测限1μg/mg）。同时对实验所获得时间序列进行动力学研究，结果表明利用双协菌降解微囊藻毒毒的反应为准一级动力学反应。     

乌江流域（四川部分）水土流失及其防治对策

根据径流场观测材料、调查资料及历史事实,论述了乌江流域(四川部分)的水土流失现状、特点、危害及导致水土流失的自然因素和人为因素。针对该流域水土流失特点和原因提出了防治对策。     

1993-2003年特大火灾发生规律、特征及原因分析

火灾作为一种灾害现象,其发生与发展具有随机性和确定性的双重特性.火灾统计分析是研究火灾随机性规律的一种有效方法,它通过总结、整理和分析大量的原始火灾资料,归纳出火灾发生的统计性规律.本文从1993-2003年我国火灾形势着手,联系火灾形势发展过程中的火灾起数、火灾中人员伤亡和直接财产损失等大量数据,重点分析了特大火灾的原因及类别特征,总结了特大火灾发生发展的规律和趋势,为正确认识和预测我国火灾形势、做好特大火灾的预防工作提供了参考.     

Copper complexation by tannic acid in aqueous solution

The speciation of titrated copper in a dissolved tannic acid (TA) solution with an initial concentration of 4 mmol organic carbon (OC)/l was investigated in a nine-step titration experiment (Cu/OC molar ratio = 0.0030–0.0567). We differentiated between soluble and insoluble Cu species by 0.45 μm filtration. Measurements with a copper ion selective electrode (ISE) and diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT) were conducted to quantify unbound Cu(II) cations (‘free’ Cu) and labile soluble Cu complexes. For the DGT measurements, we used an APA hydrogel and a Chelex 100 chelating resin (Na form). Insoluble organic Cu complexes (>0.45 μm) was the dominant Cu species for Cu/OC = 0.0030–0.0567 with a maximum fraction of 0.96 of total Cu. At Cu/OC > 0.0100, Cu-catalysed degradation of aggregate structures resulted in a strong increase of free Cu and (labile) soluble Cu complexes with a maximum fraction of 0.28 and 0.32 of total Cu, respectively. Labile (i.e. DGT-detectable) soluble Cu complexes had a relatively high averaged diffusion coefficient (D) in the APA hydrogel (3.50 × 10⁻⁶– 5.58 × 10⁻⁶ cm² s⁻¹).     

基于SPA模型的煤矿瓦斯危险源风险评价

根据危险源理论和三类危险源的观点,采用集对分析(SPA)方法,进行了安全一事故集对的同异反分析,指出应采取措施控制不确定项,尤其要控制其中的第二类、第三类危险源才能使系统趋于安全状态;同时建立了煤矿瓦斯危险源风险评价模型,通过联系度的计算得出煤矿瓦斯的安全等级.研究表明,将集对分析方法应用于某煤矿瓦斯危险源风险评价,计算简单,结果较为精确、可靠,为不确定系统的评价提供了一条新思路.