Sensitivity analysis of Phast’s atmospheric dispersion model for three toxic materials (nitric oxide, ammonia, chlorine)

We present the results of a parametric sensitivity analysis of a widely used model for atmospheric dispersion of toxic gases, in order better to understand the influence of user-adjustable parameters on model outputs. We have studied 60 min continuous release scenarios for three different products (nitric oxide, ammonia and chlorine), chosen to cover a range of physical characteristics and storage conditions. For each product, we have broken down base-case scenarios into a number of sub-scenarios corresponding to different release conditions which determine physical phenomena (flow rate, release angle, release elevation and atmospheric stability class). The use of statistical tools to analyze the results of a large number of model executions allows us to rank model parameters according to their influence on the variability of a number of model outputs (distances and concentrations), on a per-scenario and per-product basis. Analysis of the results allows us to verify our understanding of the modeling of cloud dispersion.     

Empirical assessment of debris flow risk on a regional scale in Yunnan province,southwestern China

Adopting the definition suggested by the United Nations, a risk model for regional debris flow assessment is presented. Risk is defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability, both of which are necessary for evaluation. A Multiple-Factor Composite Assessment Model is developed for quantifying regional debris flow hazard by taking into account eight variables that contribute to debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occurrence. Vulnerability is a measure of the potential total losses. On a regional scale, it can be measured by the fixed asset, gross domestic product, land resources, population density, as well as the age, education, and wealth of the inhabitants. A nonlinear power-function assessment model that accounts for these indexes is developed. As a case study, the model is applied to compute the hazard, vulnerability and risk for each prefecture of the Yunnan province in southwestern China.     

The health effects and ecological significance of chlorine residuals in water

During the past several years, chlorine residuals and chlorinated organic compounds in drinking waters and aquatic environments have become a significant topic of study for scientists concerned about the quality of life in aquatic ecosystems as well as general public health. The effects of direct toxicity and/or carcinogenicity to human and aquatic life are the focal points for this concern.The effects of chloramines and chlorinated organic compounds present in the water distribution system after chlorination treatments are reviewed. Also discussed are the effects of chlorinated discharges from municipal secondary treatment plants and power plants on human health and aquatic life. The toxic significance of environmental chemicals are described.     

Recent debates and developments in British regional policy

This paper reviews the latest regional policy changes in Britain against the background of recent political and academic debates over the nature of and appropriate response to regional economic problems. It puts forward a critique of the current government's position on regional policy, as set out in the 1983 White Paper Regional Industrial Development, and examines the options for more broadly‐based approaches to regional development planning.     

Identifying Opportunities for Decision Support Systems in Support of Regional Resource Use Planning: An Approach Through Soft Systems Methodology

/ Regional resource use planning relies on key regional stakeholder groups using and having equitable access to appropriate social, economic, and environmental information and assessment tools. Decision support systems (DSS) can improve stakeholder access to such information and analysis tools. Regional resource use planning, however, is a complex process involving multiple issues, multiple assessment criteria, multiple stakeholders, and multiple values. There is a need for an approach to DSS development that can assist in understanding and modeling complex problem situations in regional resource use so that areas where DSSs could provide effective support can be identified, and the user requirements can be well established. This paper presents an approach based on the soft systems methodology for identifying DSS opportunities for regional resource use planning, taking the Central Highlands Region of Queensland, Australia, as a case study.     

Patterns of Aquatic Species Imperilment in the Southern Appalachians: An Evaluation of Regional Databases

/ For regional analyses of species imperilment patterns, data on species distributions are available from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and from the state heritage programs. We compared these two different databases as sources of best available information for regional analyses of patterns of aquatic species imperilment for 132 counties in the southern Appalachians and examined patterns produced from the databases. The heritage program database contained information about a greater number of imperiled species because species need not be federally listed as threatened or endangered to be included in this database. In the southern Appalachians, about half of imperiled molluscs and about one-fourth of imperiled fish were listed as threatened or endangered; much smaller proportions of other taxonomic groups were federally listed. Most threatened and endangered species appeared on both lists, but for about 40% of the species inconsistencies exist, notably a lack of recent records in the heritage program dataset. Numbers of species in each county were significantly different between the two datasets for Georgia, Tennessee, and Virginia, where the largest number of threatened and endangered species reside. Nevertheless, some counties always appeared as centers of imperilment, and the general spatial patterns of imperilment were similar.     

Chemical characteristics and source apportionment of atmospheric particles during heating period in Harbin, China

Atmospheric particles（total suspended particles（TSPs）; particulate matter（PM） with particle size below 10 μm, PM10; particulate matter with particle size below 2.5 μm, PM2.5）were collected and analyzed during heating and non-heating periods in Harbin. The sources of PM10 and PM2.5were identified by the chemical mass balance（CMB） receptor model.Results indicated that PM2.5/TSP was the most prevalent and PM2.5was the main component of PM210, while the presence of PM10–100was relatively weak. SO-4and NO-3concentrations were more significant than other ions during the heating period. As compared with the non-heating period, Mn, Ni, Pb, S, Si, Ti, Zn, As, Ba, Cd, Cr, Fe and K were relatively higher during the heating period. In particular, Mn, Ni, S, Si, Ti, Zn and As in PM2.5were obviously higher during the heating period. Organic carbon（OC） in the heating period was 2–5 times higher than in the non-heating period. Elemental carbon（EC） did not change much. OC/EC ratios were 8–11 during the heating period, which was much higher than in other Chinese cities（OC/EC： 4–6）. Results from the CMB indicated that 11 pollution sources were identified, of which traffic, coal combustion, secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and secondary organic carbon made the greatest contribution. Before the heating period, dust and petrochemical industry made a larger contribution. In the heating period, coal combustion and secondary sulfate were higher. After the heating period, dust and petrochemical industry were higher. Some hazardous components in PM2.5were higher than in PM10, because PM2.5has a higher ability to absorb toxic substances. Thus PM2.5pollution is more significant regarding human health effects in the heating period.     

奉贤区大气环境污染特征及其防护对策

随着我国经济的快速发展,工业化和城市化突飞猛进,生态环境已成为举世瞩目的问题。大气环境污染是环境污染的重要组成部分,本文主要对奉贤区大气污染特征进行分析探讨,并提出污染防护对策。     

Buoyancy and turbulence-driven atmospheric circulation over urban areas

In the buoyancy and turbulence-driven atmospheric circulations (BTDAC) that occur over urban areas where the approach means wind speeds are very low (less than turbulent fluctuations and typically < 3 m/sec), the surface temperatures are significantly higher than those in the external rural areas, and the atmosphere above the mixing layer is stably stratified. In this paper, the mechanisms of BTDAC formation are studied through laboratory experiments and modelling, with additional low-level inflow from external rural areas and a divergent outflow in the opposite direction in the upper part of the mixed layer. Strong turbulent plumes in the central region mix the flow between lower and higher levels up to the inversion height. There are shear-driven turbulent eddies and weaker buoyant plumes around the periphery of the urban area. As the approach flow is very weak, the recirculating streamlines within the dome restrict the ventilation, and the dispersion of pollution emitted from sources below the inversion height leading to a rise in the mean concentration. Low-level air entrained from rural areas can, however, improve ventilation and lower this concentration. This trend can also be improved if the recirculating structure of the BTDAC flow pattern over urban areas breaks down as a result of the surface temperature distribution not being symmetrical, or as the approach wind speed increases to a level comparable with the mean velocity of circulation, or (except near the equator) the urban area is large enough that the Coriolis acceleration is significant.     

基于C4ISRE系统的核电站大气核污染扩散轨迹系统仿真研究

为了在核污染事故处理时提供精细化预警,以辽宁省某核电站周边部分重要目标（大衣屯、大周屯、红沿河镇、驼山乡、西杨乡、复大线应急撤离线路）为研究对象,将环境保护指挥自动化系统C4ISRE（Command,Control,Communications,Computer,Intelligence,Surveillance,Reconnaissance,Environmental Impact Assessment）与HYSPLIT 4.9模型相耦合,采用NCEP（美国国家环境预报中心）的FNL全球气象数据对核污染扩散轨迹进行仿真研究.结果表明:自模拟初始时间2014-04-01T00:00:00.00开始,进、出大衣屯边界时间分别为00:06:16.560、00:06:49.000,历时31.340 s;由西向东横穿过大周屯,进、出时间分别为于00:06:16.56到达大衣屯北部边界,于00:06:46.90扩散出大衣屯边界,经过大衣屯区域耗时共计29.00 s;核污染气团于00:15:30.85到达大周屯上空500 m处,由西向东横穿过大周屯,于00:15:46.05离开大周屯上空,过程耗时15.20 s;核污染气团于00:32:14.25经过重要应急撤离线路2（复大线）,全程耗时32 min 14.25 s.核污染气团与从2014-04-01T00:00:00.000进入红沿河镇上空500 m区域,于00:24:27.00扩散出,全程历时24 min 27.00 s;进、出驼山乡上空500 m区域的时间分别为00:24:28、00:51:00,历时26 min 32.00 s;进、出西杨乡上空的时间分别为00:51:01、01:05:4.70,历时14 min 37.00 s;重点区域大衣屯和大周屯行政区的预警时间分别为376.56、930.85 s,重点撤离线路2区域预警时间为1934.25 s.