Inverse uncertainty characteristics of pollution source identification for river chemical spill incidents by stochastic analysis

Identifying source information after river chemical spill occurrences is critical for emergency responses. However, the inverse uncertainty characteristics of this kind of pollution source inversion problem have not yet been clearly elucidated. To fill this gap, stochastic analysis approaches, including a regional sensitivity analysis method, identifiability plot and perturbation methods, were employed to conduct an empirical investigation on generic inverse uncertainty characteristics under a well-accepted uncertainty analysis framework. Case studies based on field tracer experiments and synthetic numerical tracer experiments revealed several new rules. For example, the release load can be most easily inverted, and the source location is responsible for the largest uncertainty among the source parameters. The diffusion and convection processes are more sensitive than the dilution and pollutant attenuation processes to the optimization of objective functions in terms of structural uncertainty. The differences among the different objective functions are smaller for instantaneous release than for continuous release cases. Small monitoring errors affect the inversion results only slightly, which can be ignored in practice. Interestingly, the estimated values of the release location and time negatively deviate from the real values, and the extent is positively correlated with the relative size of the mixing zone to the objective river reach. These new findings improve decision making in emergency responses to sudden water pollution and guide the monitoring network design.

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区域声环境质量污染水平预测方法评价与对比研究

为完成北京市“十二五”城市区域的主要声污染防治工作目标,全面提高北京市声环境质量水平,科学预测区域内在“十二五”期间噪声污染水平和发展趋势,本文以北京市某典型区域作为研究对象,在收集大量相关资料与实测历史噪声数据的基础上,运用指数平滑法与灰色模型GM（1,1）对所选定研究区域的噪声污染水平与发展趋势进行预测与分析。研究结果表明：运用指数平滑法与灰色模型对研究区域声环境噪声污染预测是可行的,北京市在“十二五”期间声环境质量水平符合《声环境质量标准》（GB3096—2008）中的一类区域标准。     

Progress in quantitative research on the relationship between atmospheric oxidation and air quality

Atmospheric oxidizing capacity (AOC) is an essential driving force of troposphere chemistry and self-cleaning, but the definition of AOC and its quantitative representation remain uncertain. Driven by national demand for air pollution control in recent years, Chinese scholars have carried out studies on theories of atmospheric chemistry and have made considerable progress in AOC research. This paper will give a brief review of these developments. First, AOC indexes were established that represent apparent atmospheric oxidizing ability (AOIe) and potential atmospheric oxidizing ability (AOIp) based on aspects of macrothermodynamics and microdynamics, respectively. A closed study refined the quantitative contributions of heterogeneous chemistry to AOC in Beijing, and these AOC methods were further applied in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and key areas across the country. In addition, the detection of ground or vertical profiles for atmospheric OH·, HO₂·, NO₃· radicals and reservoir molecules can now be obtained with domestic instruments in diverse environments. Moreover, laboratory smoke chamber simulations revealed heterogeneous processes involving reactions of O₃ and NO₂, which are typical oxidants in the surface/interface atmosphere, and the evolutionary and budgetary implications of atmospheric oxidants reacting under multispecies, multiphase and multi-interface conditions were obtained. Finally, based on the GRAPES-CUACE adjoint model improved by Chinese scholars, simulations of key substances affecting atmospheric oxidation and secondary organic and inorganic aerosol formation have been optimized. Normalized numerical simulations of AOIe and AOIp were performed, and regional coordination of AOC was adjusted. An optimized plan for controlling O₃ and PM_2.5 was analyzed by scenario simulation.     

A review of gas-phase chemical mechanisms commonly used in atmospheric chemistry modelling

The atmospheric chemical mechanism is an essential component of airshed models used for investigating the chemical behaviors and impacts of species. Since the first tropospheric chemical mechanism was proposed in the 1960s, various mechanisms including Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM), Carbon Bond Mechanism (CBM), Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) and Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM) have been developed for different research purposes. This work summarizes the development and applications of these mechanisms, introduces their compositions and lumping methods, and compares the ways the mechanisms treat radicals with box model simulations. CBM can reproduce urban pollution events with relatively low cost compared to SAPRC and RACM, whereas the chemical behaviors of radicals and the photochemical production of ozone are described in detail in RACM. The photolysis rates of some oxygenated compounds are low in SAPRC07, which may result in underestimation of radical levels. As an explicit chemical mechanism, MCM describes the chemical processes of primary pollutants and their oxidation products in detail. MCM can be used to investigate certain chemical processes; however, due to its large size, it is rarely used in regional model simulations. A box model case study showed that the chemical behavior of OH and HO₂ radicals and the production of ozone were well described by all mechanisms. CBM and SAPRC underestimated the radical levels for different chemical treatments, leading to low ozone production values in both cases. MCM and RACM are widely used in box model studies, while CBM and SAPRC are often selected in regional simulations.     

Comprehensive and high-resolution emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants for the northernmost cities agglomeration of Harbin-Changchun, China: Implications for local atmospheric environment management

Using a bottom-up estimation method, a comprehensive, high-resolution emission inventory of gaseous and particulate atmospheric pollutants for multiple anthropogenic sectors with typical local sources has been developed for the Harbin-Changchun city agglomeration (HCA). The annual emissions for CO, NOx, SO₂, NH₃, VOC_S, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, BC and OC during 2017 in the HCA were estimated to be 5.82 Tg, 0.70 Tg, 0.34 Tg, 0.75 Tg, 0.81Tg, 0.67 Tg, 1.59 Tg, 0.12 Tg and 0.26 Tg, respectively. For PM₁₀ and SO₂, the emissions from industry processes were the dominant contributors representing 54.7% and 49.5%, respectively, of the total emissions, while 95.3% and 44.5% of the total NH₃ and NOx emissions, respectively, were from or associated with agricultural activities and transportation. Spatiotemporal distributions showed that most emissions (except NH₃) occurred in November to March and were concentrated in the central cities of Changchun and Harbin and the surrounding cities. Open burning of straw made an important contribution to PM_2.5 in the central regions of the northeastern plain during autumn and spring, while domestic coal combustion for heating purposes was significant with respect to SO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions during autumn and winter. Furthermore, based on Principal Component Analysis and Multivariable Linear Regression model, air temperature, relative humidity, electricity and energy consumption, and the urban and rural population were optimized to be representative indicators for rapidly assessing the magnitude of regional atmospheric pollutants in the HCA. Such indicators and equations were demonstrated to be useful for local atmospheric environment management.     

Identification of close relationship between atmospheric oxidation and ozone formation regimes in a photochemically active region

Understanding ozone (O₃) formation regime is a prerequisite in formulating an effective O₃ pollution control strategy. Photochemical indicator is a simple and direct method in identifying O₃ formation regimes. Most used indicators are derived from observations, whereas the role of atmospheric oxidation is not in consideration, which is the core driver of O₃ formation. Thus, it may impact accuracy in signaling O₃ formation regimes. In this study, an advanced three-dimensional numerical modeling system was used to investigate the relationship between atmospheric oxidation and O₃ formation regimes during a long-lasting O₃ exceedance event in September 2017 over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China. We discovered a clear relationship between atmospheric oxidative capacity and O₃ formation regime. Over eastern PRD, O₃ formation was mainly in a NO_x-limited regime when HO₂/OH ratio was higher than 11, while in a VOC-limited regime when the ratio was lower than 9.5. Over central and western PRD, an HO₂/OH ratio higher than 5 and lower than 2 was indicative of NO_x-limited and VOC-limited regime, respectively. Physical contribution, including horizontal transport and vertical transport, may pose uncertainties on the indication of O₃ formation regime by HO₂/OH ratio. In comparison with other commonly used photochemical indicators, HO₂/OH ratio had the best performance in differentiating O₃ formation regimes. This study highlighted the necessities in using an atmospheric oxidative capacity-based indicator to infer O₃ formation regime, and underscored the importance of characterizing behaviors of radicals to gain insight in atmospheric processes leading to O₃ pollution over a photochemically active region.     

新沂地震台监测环境保护区的建立与管理

新沂地震台依据《中华人民共和国防震减灾法》和中国地震局《地震及前兆数字化技术规范》,向新沂市政府提出"建立地震监测保护区"的建议,经过积极努力,征得地方政府的批准,最终成功地划定了台站监测保护区范围,并制定了保护区管理方案。     

Validation of modeling approach to evaluate congener-specific concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in air and soil near a solid waste incinerator.

A concise modeling approach using long-term averaged meteorological data was developed to estimate site-specific concentrations of congeners of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) near a solid waste incinerator. This approach consists of calculation of atmospheric dispersion, dry and wet deposition of gaseous and particle-bound congeners, and non-steady-state concentrations in soil. The predictability of this approach was evaluated by comparison of calculated concentrations of congeners in soil with those measured at eight locations near a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI). The variation of these concentrations due to variability of meteorological parameters is small. A considerable number of mean values show good agreement with measured concentrations within a factor of three. The reasonable agreement between calculated and measured concentrations indicates that algorithms for the calculation of vapor-phase deposition and non-steady-state concentrations in soil must be included in the modeling approach for an accurate estimation of the concentrations of congeners of PCDD/Fs emitted from MSWIs to the atmosphere. For a detailed estimation of site-specific concentrations, it is important to specify the bulk density of soil in the evaluated area, together with meteorological parameters.     

青山水库底泥磷释放与库区水体磷浓度的关系

通过对青山水库底泥磷释放特性的实验结果分析,对照库区水体浓度监测的数据,确定了库区各测点底磷释放量与水体浓度之间的关系,进而为库区环境总量控制与各支流的分配计算提供了依据。同时也为防止水库的进一步富营养化,进而改善水质提供了新的思路。     

Analysis of the relationship between ambient levels of O3, NO2 and NO as a function of NOx in the UK

Monitoring data from the UK Automatic Urban and Rural Network are used to investigate the relationships between ambient levels of ozone (O₃), nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) as a function of NO_x, for levels ranging from those typical of UK rural sites to those observed at polluted urban kerbside sites. Particular emphasis is placed on establishing how the level of ‘oxidant’, OX (taken to be the sum of O₃ and NO₂) varies with the level of NO_x, and therefore to gain some insight into the atmospheric sources of OX, particularly at polluted urban locations. The analyses indicate that the level of OX at a given location is made up of NO_x-independent and NO_x-dependent contributions. The former is effectively a regional contribution which equates to the regional background O₃ level, whereas the latter is effectively a local contribution which correlates with the level of primary pollution. The local oxidant source has probable contributions from (i) direct NO₂ emissions, (ii) the thermal reaction of NO with O₂ at high NO_x, and (iii) common-source emission of species which promote NO to NO₂ conversion. The final category may include nitrous acid (HONO), which appears to be emitted directly in vehicle exhaust, and is potentially photolysed to generate HO_x radicals on a short timescale throughout the year at southern UK latitudes. The analyses also show that the local oxidant source has significant site-to-site variations, and possible reasons for these variations are discussed. Relationships between OX and NO_x, based on annual mean data, and fitted functions describing the relative contributions to OX made by NO₂ and O₃, are used to define expressions which describe the likely variation of annual mean NO₂ as a function of NO_x at 14 urban and suburban sites, and which can take account of possible changes in the regional background of O₃.