辽河流域水环境治理模式与“十四五”规划思考

系统梳理了“九五”以来辽河流域生态环境治理与保护历程,分析了辽河流域水环境质量、水生态修复、水环境管理体制机制建设等方面存在的主要问题。基于国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项辽河项目研究成果,总结了辽河流域“流域统筹、分类控源、协同治理、系统修复、产业支撑”(“管、控、治、修、产”)五位一体的治理模式。按照凸显绿色发展、突出科技支撑、助力经济高质量发展的战略要求,结合辽河流域大型重化工行业群的特点,从合理确定辽河流域水生态环境保护“十四五”规划的目标及考核指标,科学制定水环境、水资源、水生态(“三水”)统筹措施,完善绿色发展制度和加强科技支撑等方面,对辽河流域水污染防治“十四五”规划提出建议,以期持续改善流域生态环境质量。     

江苏沿江开发研究

随着中国加入WTO和经济全球化进程的加快,长江三角洲以其独特的滨江临海的区位和发达的制造业基础,正在成为新的投资热点地区。江苏省沿江地区是长江三角洲重要的组成部分,拥有800多km的长江岸线和8个经济发达、人才资源优势明显的经济中心城市。传统的制造业基础和相对低廉的加工成本、商务成本,使江苏沿江开发既有对外来资本的吸引力,又有自我发展的内生机制。重点研究了全球化背景下江苏沿江开发的战略问题,主要包括：①江苏沿江地区开发的环境和条件比较分析;②沿江产业带重组与实施跨江开发;③再造新战略据点;④打破行政区界限沿江联动实施区域一体化,等等。最后指出：加快江苏沿江开发,必须科学规划、统筹安排,做到空间合理、时间有序,同时考虑沿江的环境容量有限,应实施可持续发展和南北联动的开发战略,拓展沿江的开发空间,提升沿江的产业发展水平。     

Heavy metals in bark of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus massoniana</Emphasis> (Lamb.) as an indicator of atmospheric deposition near a smeltery at Qujiang,China

Goal, Scope and Background Rapid urbanization and the expansion of industrial activities in the past several decades have led to large increases in emissions of pollutants in the Pearl River Delta of south China. Recent reports have suggested that industrial emission is a major factor contributing to the damages in current natural ecosystem in the Delta area. Tree barks have been used successfully to monitor the levels of atmospheric metal deposition in many areas, but rarely in China. This study aimed at determining whether atmospheric heavy metal deposition from a Pb-Zn smeltery at Qujiang, Guangdong province, could be accurately reflected both in the inner bark and the outer bark of Masson pine (Pinus massoniana L.). The impact of the emission from smeltery on the soils beneath the trees and the relationships of the concentrations between the soils and the barks were also analyzed. Methods Barks around the bole of Pinus massoniana from a pine forest near a Pb-Zn smeltery at Qujiang and a reference forest at Dinghushan natural reserve were sampled with a stainless knife at an average height of 1.5 m above the ground. Mosses and lichens on the surface barks were cleaned prior to sampling. The samples were carefully divided into the inner bark (living part) and the outer bark (dead part) in the laboratory, and dried and ground, respectively. After being dry-ashed, the powder of the barks was dissolved in HNO₃. The solutions were analyzed for iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni) and cobalt (Co) by inductively coupled plasmas emission spectrometry (ICP, PS-1000AT, USA) and Cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GFAAS, ZEENIT 60, Germany). Surface soils (0–10 cm) beneath the sample trees were also collected and analyzed for the selected metals. Results and Discussion Concentrations of the selected metals in soils at Qujiang were far above their environmental background values in the area, except for Fe and Mn, whilst at Dinghushan, they were far below their background values, except for Cd and Co. Levels of the metals, in particular Pb and Zn, in the soils beneath the sample trees at Qujiang were higher than those at Dinghushan with statistical significance. The result suggested that the pine forest soils at Qujiang had a great input of heavy metals from wet and dry atmospheric deposition, with the Pb-Zn smeltery most probably being the source. Levels of Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn, Ni and Pb at Qujiang, both in the inner and the outer bark, were statistically higher than those at Dinghushan. Higher concentrations of Pb, Fe, Zn and Cu may come from the stem-flow of elements leached from the canopy, soil splash on the 1.5 m height and sorption of metals in the mosses and lichens growing on the bark, which were direct or indirect results from the atmospheric deposition. Levels of heavy metals in the outer barks were associated well with the metal concentrations in the soil, reflecting the close relationships between the metal atmospheric deposition and their accumulation in the outer bark of Masson pine. The significant (p<0.01) correlations of Fe-Cu, Fe-Cr, Fe-Pb, Fe-Ni, Pb-Ni, and Pb-Zn in the outer barks at Qujiang again suggested a common source for the metals. The correlation only occurred between Pb and Ni, Cd and Co in the outer barks at Dinghushan, which suggested that those metals must possibly have other uncommon sources. Conclusions Atmospheric deposition of the selected metals was great at Qujiang, based on the levels in the bark of Pinus massoniana and on the concentrations in the soils beneath the trees compared with that at Dinghushan. Bark of Pinus massoniana, especially the outer bark, was an indicator of metal loading at least at the time of sampling. Recommendations and Perspectives The results from this study and the techniques employed constituted a new contribution to the development of biogeochemical methods for environmental monitoring particularly in areas with high frequency of pollution in China. The method would be of value for follow up studies aimed at the assessment of industrial pollution in other areas similar with the Pearl River Delta.     

COMPARISON OF REGRESSION AND TIME-SERIES METHODS FOR SYNTHESIZING MISSING STREAMFLOW RECORDS1

ABSTRACT: Regression and time-series techniques have been used to synthesize and predict the stream flow at the Foresta Bridge gage from information at the upstream Pohono Bridge gage on the Merced River near Yosemite National Park. Using the available data from two time periods (calendar year 1979 and water year 1986), we evaluated the two techniques in their ability to model the variation in the observed flows and in their ability to predict stream flow at the Foresta Bridge gage for the 1979 time period with data from the 1986 time period. Both techniques produced reasonably good estimates and forecasts of the flow at the downstream gage. However, the regression model was found to have a significant amount of autocorrelation in the residuals, which the time-series model was able to eliminate. The time-series technique presented can be of great assistance in arriving at reasonable estimates of flow in data sets that have large missing portions of data.     

长江中下游湖泊保护和管理的若干建议

长江中下游地区是我国面向21世纪的经济重地,长江是我国唯一具有全国意义的战略水源地,是我国水资源供需平衡的最后防线。然而在自然演化宏观背景下,流域经济的高速发展,大规模开发利用等人类活动的强烈影响,引发了一系列负面环境效应。湖泊湿地生态环境被破坏问题严重,突出表现在生态调节和自我恢复功能大幅度降低,并已造成了严重的生态后果,危及长江水系的生态平衡,影响了区域经济的可持续发展。在大量野外考察和调查基础上,针对长江中下游湖泊湿地当前的生态环境状况及存在的问题,提出了若干对策和建议。     

基于面板数据的研发投入对区域经济增长影响分析

利用长江经济带110个地市1990~2013年RD投入与经济增长水平的相关面板数据,通过单位根检验、协整性检验和面板数据模型,对RD经费投入和人员投入与区域经济增长的影响进行了分析。结果表明:1长江经济带各市的经济增长与RD投入存在长期稳定的关系,RD短期投入对区域经济增长的影响则存在着一定的滞后效应;2RD人员投入产出弹性高于RD经费投入,说明区域经济增长对RD人员的依赖性更大;3RD投入表现出东部地区高于中部地区,中部地区高于西部地区,但RD投入对区域经济增长的影响则表现出中西部大于东部的现象,造成这一现象的原因在于所处发展阶段的不同和东中西区域经济特征不同。最后,从加大RD经费投入强度、制定RD投入中长期计划等方面提出了促进区域经济增长的建议。     

长江经济带新型城镇化协调性的空间差异与时空演化

从城乡、产城、区域和城镇化与资源环境协调发展4个方面建立指标体系,衡量长江经济带105个地级及以上市新型城镇化的协调性,并运用泰尔系数和探索性空间分析考察协调性的空间差异和时空演化,结果发现:长江经济带新型城镇化协调性存在明显的反地势分布和"城市圈俱乐部"特征;东、中、西部城镇化协调性差异随时间越来越明显,东部城市主要体现在非省会城市之间的差异,中部主要体现在省会城市与非省会城市的组间差异,西部主要体现在省会城市之间以及省会城市和非省会城市之间的组间差异;长江经济带新型城镇化协调性表现出正的全局空间自相关,协调性高的区域开始集聚在一起,这种趋势随时间不断增强并且空间溢出效应明显。     

基于地面监测数据的2013~2015年长三角地区PM2.5时空特征

近年来,长三角地区灰霾天气持续增多,空气细颗粒物污染问题日益突出。基于2013年1月至2015年5月长三角地区及周边缓冲区内共214个空气质量监测站点PM_2.5逐时监测数据,运用普通克里金插值方法,从年、季、月尺度上分析了PM_2.5的空间分布格局和时间动态变化。结果表明:(1)2 a来,长三角地区PM_2.5浓度空间分布明显呈现整体北部高南部低,局部地区略有突出的分布特征;长三角地区PM_2.5浓度年均值为57.08μg/m³;其中,江苏省PM_2.5的年均值为三省市最高,为65.84μg/m³;其次为上海市,年均值为53.87μg/m³;浙江省PM_2.5的年均值较小,为51.53μg/m³。(2)从季节尺度分析,长三角地区PM_2.5浓度变化表现出冬春季高,夏秋季低的变化趋势;这与区域内冬季风向来源、降水稀少、气象扩散条件差有着密切的关系; (3)长三角地区月浓度变化大致呈U形分布; 12月份PM_2.5浓度最高; 3月份以后, PM_2.5浓度开始呈逐步下降趋势;在5~9月份,区域PM_2.5处于"U"字的谷底,其中6月份夏收时期秸秆焚烧、气象等因素导致PM_2.5浓度有略微升高;进入10月份后迅速攀升,且11、12月份呈现持续升高态势。     

贵州省三岔河流域水化学特征及其控制因素

对乌江源区三岔河流域枯水期和丰水期河水样品离子浓度及组成特征分析表明,河水主要的阴阳离子分别是HCO_3~–和Ca~(2+),分别占到总阴离子量的55%和总阳离子量的70%,与喀斯特地区流域相似。主要离子的时空分布的对比分析表明,Ca~(2+)、Mg~(2+)、Na~+、HCO_3~–、Cl~–枯水期浓度略高于丰水期,而K+、SO_4~(2–)、NO_3~–两期浓度变化相对较小;空间分布的多样化,反映了不同小流域在地质背景、生态环境、人为活动等方面的差异对河水离子的影响。通过Gibbs图分析表明,研究区河水水化学主要受到岩石风化的影响,通过阴阳离子三角图分析表明,研究区河水水化学主要受到碳酸岩盐的影响,并且硫酸广泛参与到岩石风化中,人为活动对流域水化学组成也有一定影响。     

长江经济带城市对外服务能力时空演变分析

基于城市流强度模型测算2000年以来长江经济带126个地级以上城市在全国范围内的对外服务能力,进而采用改良锡尔系数、马尔可夫链和ESDA方法对城市对外服务能力的时空演变特征进行探讨。结果表明:研究时段内长江经济带各市城市流强度都有显著提升,但区域间的非均衡现象明显,城市对外服务能力呈现出由东部向西部的梯度递减;省内差异对城市对外服务能力的差异贡献率最高,是空间尺度差异的主要来源;对外服务能力存在明显的俱乐部趋同现象和空间自相关性,对外服务能力相似的区域聚集分布,东、中、西部分别形成长三角、武汉-长沙、成渝等对外服务区域中心;时空演变表现出阶段性特征,经历由极化向均衡的转变。最后指出多中心发展和寻找新增长点应成为长江经济带城市对外服务能力提升的方向。