环境学习曲线与我国碳减排目标的地区分解

2009年我国政府提出:2020年碳排放强度在2005年的基础上降低40%～45%,这是我国应对全球气候变化的重要举措. 依据环境技术经济学的有关理论,运用1995—2007年的有关统计数据,建立了我国大陆30个省区(省、市、自治区)碳排放环境学习曲线(ELC),并依据ELC模型预测了碳排放强度和碳减排潜力. 结果发现,按照过去12 a的自然趋势,2020年各省区的碳减排潜力为15%～58%,全国碳减排总潜力为30.6%. 从“需求”与“可能”出发,将9.4%的缺口按比例分配到9个高碳省区,并依此重新计算各省区碳减排目标和分担率.      

基于RepastS平台的太湖水环境系统承载力研究

运用计算实验方法,以计算机为工具,构造太湖水环境系统承载力模型,通过研究水和人类的各主体行为得出太湖水环境系统的整体特征,并通过人口、TP、TN、CODMn承载度来反映。研究结果表明太湖目前点源污染得到了有效控制,但面源污染和城镇生活用水污染尚需要重点治理。实验显示:通过系统参数的调整,将大大改善太湖现有水环境系统。     

浙江西苕溪水环境容量模型与参数灵敏度分析

针对浙江西苕溪河月流量丰枯悬殊较大、流速小、存在倒流的特点,建立了零维反复流水环境容量模型.以水功能区为基础划分计算单元,选取频率P=50%、75%、90%和近10年最枯月流量为设计水文条件,分别计算了西苕溪CODCr、氨氮、总氮、总磷的水环境容量值;对模型参数进行了蒙特卡罗模拟分析,95%置信水平下,CODcr环境容量置信区间为[17982 t/a,45489 t/a],氨氮为[493t/a,1624t/a],总氮为[435 t/a,1332t/a],总磷为[20t/a,147t/a];模拟结果给了流量、降解系数不确定条件下水环境容量的所有可能值,为决策者提供了更全面的信息.参数灵敏度分析结果表明,各站流量对各污染物环境容量均最敏感,方差贡献占73.3%~99.1%,而降解系数中除k2对CODCr具有一定影响外,其余影响最小,说明计算水环境容量时,选择合适的设计流量极为重要.     

基于生态承载力的成都产业空间布局研究

以成都市的20个行政区县为基本评价单元进行生态承载力评价,在此基础上进行产业空间布局研究. 结果表明:成都市的生态承载力空间分布存在明显差异,呈从山区—丘陵—平原依次递增、从流域源头—末端依次递增的规律. 根据不同单元生态承载力的空间和阈值差异,将成都产业空间布局划分为4个类型区,即重点发展区、引导发展区、限制发展区和保护发展区;针对不同类型区的特征,制订产业准入门槛、产业规模和产业发展方向等产业发展调控策略.      

辽宁省污水综合排放标准刍议

针对《辽宁省污水综合排放标准》（DB21/1627—2008）实施以来暴露出的一些值得商榷的问题,对比分析了发达国家的污水排放标准,指出了在《辽宁省污水综合排放标准》（DB21/1627—2008）执行过程中应以建设时间为节点区别对待污水处理厂,应适当放宽总氮指标,分流域制定标准,建立标准的技术支撑体系等4个方面对《辽宁省污水综合排放标准》进行改进,以使《辽宁省污水综合排放标准》更适应社会、经济、技术的发展。     

论全球生态经济系统的不可持续性——基于农业生态系统承载力视角

运用3种方法预测的作物产量潜力分别为：（1）利用作物历年单产回归拟合后进行趋势外推,得出多数作物的未来产量潜力极限大约将是现在单产的2～3倍;（2）运用＂国际应用系统研究所＂（IIASA）与＂联合国粮农组织＂（FAO）共同开发的＂农业生态区划＂（AEZ）模型计算我国主要粮油作物的区域单产最高潜力,得出水稻、小麦、玉米、马铃薯、油菜和大豆的单产潜力分别是它们2005年全国平均单产的1.2、2.2、2.2、2.9、2.0、1.9倍;（3）运用自然界中植物的最大光能利用率计算世界主要粮油作物单产的光合潜力,得出水稻、小麦、玉米、马铃薯、油菜、大豆产量的最大光合生产潜力大约分别是目前高产地区单产的1.4、2.5、1.2、1.8、1.9、2.2倍。据此：从作物产量潜力极限出发,阐述了农业生态系统的承载力;再从＂封闭＂系统特性出发,论述了全球生态经济系统的不可持续性。人类所能做的是尽力延缓＂终点＂的出现：行动越早,效果越好。     

状态空间法在省域主体功能区划中的应用——以湖南省为例

从资源环境承载力、开发密度和发展潜力等系统因素出发,确定了区域主体功能区划的指标体系,提出了基于状态空间理论的省域主体功能区划分的综合方法。以湖南省14个地级市(州)为基本空间单元,运用该方法进行了主体功能区类型划分。结果表明:除依法设立的各类自然保护区散布在各地级市外,属于省级重点开发或优化开发的区域主要分布在东部和中部地区,限制开发区则集中在西部地区。应用状况空间分析方法进行主体功能区划,能较好地反映区域的整体承载状况,为优化区域空间结构与布局,统筹区域可持续发展提供战略决策依据,并为我国主体功能区划提供理论方法参考。     

Estimation of Aerobic Capacity and Determination of Its Associated Factors Among Male Workers of Industrial Sector of Iran

Introduction. The aim of this study was to estimate maximal aerobic capacity (V_O2max), to determine its associated factors among workers of industrial sector of Iran and to develop a regression equation for subjects’ V_O2max. Methods. In this study, 500 healthy male workers employed in Shiraz industries participated voluntarily. The subjects’ V_O2max was assessed with the ergocycle test according to the Åstrand protocol. Required data was collected with a questionnaire covering demographic details (i.e., age, job tenure, marital status, education, nature of work, shift work, smoking and weekly exercises). Results. The subject’s mean V_O2max was 2.69 ± 0.263 L/min. The results showed that there was an association between V_O2max and age, BMI, hours of exercise and smoking, but there was no association between V_O2max and height, weight, nature of work and working schedule. On the basis of the results, regression equations were developed to estimate V_O2max. Conclusion. Final regression equation developed in this study may be used to estimate V_O2max reliably without the need to use other laboratory instruments for aerobic measurement.     

Local knowledge and climate change adaptation on Erub Island,Torres Strait

Local knowledge is a valuable asset in observing and managing environmental change, and importantly, is an unheralded source of adaptive capacity. Torres Strait Islanders are no exception, having used such knowledge to adapt to biophysical changes in their environment for centuries. This article explores the ways in which Islanders have coped in the past with environmental changes to plan for their future. This article focuses on Erub Island in the eastern group of islands in the Torres Strait and charts the adaptation actions or activities employed by respected locals (Elders and Aunties). Drawing on their local knowledge, these actions or activities have included the building of rock walls and wind breaks, using native species to re-vegetate sand cays and the coastal foreshore, applying self-sufficient practices such as fish traps and gardening, reading and respecting country, and transferring this knowledge to the younger generation. In this way, it is the Islanders themselves who detail, based on their local knowledge, what is most appropriate for their community.     

Climate change in mountain regions: how local communities adapt to extreme events

This paper examines how local communities adapt to climate change and how governance structures can foster or undermine adaptive capacity. Climate change policies, in general, and disaster risk management in mountain regions, in particular, are characterised by their multi-level and multi-sectoral nature during formulation and implementation. The involvement of numerous state and non-state actors at local to national levels produces a variety of networks of interaction and communication. The paper argues that the structure of these relational patterns is critical for understanding adaptive capacity. It thus proposes an expanded concept of adaptive capacity that incorporates (horizontal and vertical) actor integration and communication flow between these actors. The paper further advocates the use of formal social network analysis to assess these relational patterns. Preliminary results from research on adaptation to climate change in a Swiss mountain region vulnerable to floods and other natural hazards illustrate the conceptual and empirical significance of the main arguments.