芜湖市土地资源人口承载力与可持续发展研究

作为人类赖以生存和发展物质基础的土地资源有限性与人口的增长加剧了人地间的矛盾 ,土地资源人口承载力问题日益引起社会关注。在总结芜湖市土地资源利用现状、特点和当前人口食物消费水平的基础上分析了土地现实生产能力 ,同时为预测芜湖市 2 0 0 0、2 0 0 5、2 0 10年人口数量、复种指数、耕地面积及粮食单产发展趋势而分别建立了一元线性回归模型与灰色系统 GM(1,1)模型 ,通过取其平均值以提高其精度 ;并结合温饱型、宽裕型、小康型与富裕型四种消费水平分别探讨了预测期内芜湖市土地资源人口承载力状况 ,最后从耕地总量动态平衡、提高粮食单产与质量及控制人口增长等方面提出了可持续发展对策 ,为芜湖市建立稳定、协调、持续发展的人地关系提供科学的理论依据     

Determination of complexation capacity of trace metal-organic in natural water

The complexation capacity for heavy metals (Cu, Cd, Pb) were determined by anodic stripping voltammetry in South China Sea, Hulun Lake and Wuliang Suhai. The conditional stability constants and complexation capacity index were calculated. The data showed that the complexation capacity of the Hulun Lake was greater than that of seawater and Wuliang Suhai. The sequence of complexation capacity is C (CuL) > C (CdL) > C (PbL), the values are in concord with results of analysis on dissolved organic carbon. The conditional stability constants were in an opposite sequence: K (CuL) < K(CdL) < K (PbL). When logK are similar, the greater the complexation capacity, the greater the complexation capacity index.     

三峡库区移民环境容量指标的研究

移民环境容量的研究使移民安置规划建立在稳妥的科学基础上,扩大了移民安置范围的视野和任务范围。本文从经济、社会、生态与环境三重效益向良性循环发展的角度提出了三峡库区移民环境容量指标体系。     

中国可持续发展能力建设中人力资源开发研究

人力资源的开发是可持续发展能力建设的重要组成部分 ,也是国家财富存量的决定性因素。它涉及教育、培训、科技、扶贫、就业与劳动力转移、体制改革和国际合作等众多领域 ,直接影响到一个国家的可持续性。本文从实现国家可持续发展的目标出发 ,阐述了人力资源理论研究的进展 ,分析了中国人力资源能力建设的现状 ,并提出了相应的对策。     

The institutions-adaptive capacity nexus: Insights from coastal resources co-management in Cambodia and Vietnam

Responding to the unprecedented social-environmental change facing humankind will require responsive and flexible governance institutions (i.e., systems of rules and social norms) that facilitate adaptive capacity of individuals, groups and organisations. This may explain the sustained interest in the institutional dimensions of adaptive capacity. However, a better understanding of how institutions may enable adaptive capacity is still evolving. The literature is yet to clearly articulate how institutions relate to attributes of adaptive capacity. This study contributes to address this knowledge gap; it employs an evaluative approach that underscores the relationship between types of institutions and attributes of adaptive capacity (i.e., variety, learning capacity, autonomy, leadership, resources and fair governance). Such approach is used to examine how institutions enable adaptive capacity in the context of coastal resources co-managemen in the Peam Krasaop Wildlife Sanctuary (Cambodia) and Tam Giang Lagoon (Vietnam). In this study, complexity emerges as a defining feature of adaptive capacity. It results from the relationship between institutions and adaptive capacity and the contextual factors in which such relationship takes place. Exercises aiming to assess adaptive capacity should consider the institutions-adaptive capacity nexus together with the embedding social, cultural and political context.     

Confronting a Surfeit of People: Reducing Global Human Numbers to Sustainable Levels An Essay on Population Two Centuries after Malthus

It has become increasingly evident over the past several decades that there is a growing tension between two seemingly irreconcilable trends: (1) moderate to conservative demographic projections that world population size could easily reach 9 billion (or more) by the mid-to-late twenty-first century; and (2) prudent and increasingly reliable scientific estimates suggesting that the Earth's long-term sustainable carrying capacity (at an 'adequate to comfortable' standard of living) may not be much greater than 2–3 billion. I therefore argue that it is now time – indeed, past time – to develop and implement a set of well-conceived, clearly articulated, broadly equitable and internationally coordinated sociopolitical initiatives that go beyond merely slowing the growth – or even the stabilization – of global human numbers. After summarizing a number of 'inescapable realities' that the human species must soon confront, and notwithstanding the considerable difficulties involved in establishing rational and defensible global population optimums, I conclude with several suggestions relevant to the next logical step: how best to bring about a very significant reduction in global population size over the next two to three centuries. To the extent that there is still time to choose whether this dramatic decrease will be under conscious control or essentially chaotic, these proposals are cautiously optimistic.     

木屑生物炭对填料土的氮磷吸附及雨水持留改良影响

现阶段生物滞留系统的填料土存在氮磷营养盐净化效果不稳定、雨水持留能力下降等问题.为评估木屑生物炭作为生物滞留系统填料土添加剂的改良效果,选用对照填料土和施用了木屑生物炭的改良填料土进行对比研究,通过理化性质测试、等温吸附实验、土柱实验和土水特征曲线测定,研究木屑生物炭对填料土的改良影响与优化机制.结果表明,木屑生物炭孔隙率大、比表面积大、饱和含水率高和CEC高,可优化填料土的结构,提升填料土的离子交换能力;木屑生物炭对填料土的氮磷吸附改良效果突出,对NH4+-N的最大吸附量提高了 2.80倍,去除率由31.30％提高至64.10％,对PO43--P的最大吸附量提高了 1.28倍,去除率由61.90％提高至90.00％;经木屑生物炭改良后,填料土的饱和含水率提高1.63倍,渗透系数提高2.43倍,在各含水率下的基质吸力明显增加.木屑生物炭的添加可优化生物滞留系统填料土的性能,加强对雨水径流中氮磷营养盐的吸附,提高系统的渗透性和雨水持留能力.     

动态工况下锂电池组多物理场仿真与退化分析

目的 提高锂电池组SOH评估的准确性,提出面向实际复杂动态工况的锂电池组退化仿真分析方法。方法 通过耦合多个电池单体P2D电化学–热模型和电池组串并联等效电路–热–流体模型,建立锂电池组多物理场耦合仿真模型,分析电池系统实际使用过程中电流、温度等工况的动态特性,构建锂电池组广义动态工作载荷谱。开展模型验证和典型3并5串锂电池组多物理场仿真分析,并耦合基于SEI膜生成机理的容量退化模型,分析在动态工况下内部各电池单体的容量及SOH退化情况,并给出该型电池组寿命的薄弱环节。结果 动态工况下,锂电池退化轨迹呈高度非线性,环境温度为25~60 ℃时,随着温度的升高,电池组退化较快,但电池组内部最大温差反而减小。结论 提出的方法能够很好地量化实际复杂动态工况对锂电池组退化的影响,为其可靠性设计和运行管理提供了技术支撑。     

一种城市综合承载力双向复合动态评价方法及实证研究

随着城市的发展,其对资源、生态环境、基础设施、社会经济等各种承载的需求同步增长,单一承载力逐渐无法满足对城市发展可持续状态的综合全面评估.城市综合承载力是社会、经济、环境、资源协调作用和协调程度的具体表征.综合承载力与人口规模、社会经济活动发展带来的压力之间存在动态互动关系,只有承载力和压力维持动态平衡,才能实现城市系统的可持续发展.本文通过构建城市双向复合动态可持续评估方法,量化负向城市压力(UP)和正向城市综合承载力(UCCC)及其二者之间的复合动态关系,结合层次分析法和蒙特卡洛模拟,从经济、资源、社会三方面构建评价指标,综合考虑各影响因素的不确定性和相互作用,实现逐个单点时间城市综合承载力的概率分布模拟,进而通过复合动态关系判断模型实现单个区域单点时间的可持续发展状态的判断.最后,以广州市为例,对所提出方法进行应用.结果表明,2004—2016年,广州市的综合承载力和城市压力相互协调、相互适应,城市发展整体呈可持续状态.但2012年以来资源环境承载力有一定的下降,尤其是水资源承载力和大气环境承载力下降,需要引起重视.     

基于信息熵的乡村生产空间系统演化及其可持续发展能力

乡村生产空间系统演化是乡村生产空间系统内部及其与外部系统间进行物质、能量和信息交换的表征或结果,这一结果的优劣是实现系统可持续发展的内生物质基础与保障。以重庆市为研究区,以2001-2015年为研究时段,基于信息熵,从支持型输入熵、压力型输出熵、氧化型代谢熵、还原型代谢熵四个方面构建乡村生产空间系统演化指标体系,揭示乡村生产空间系统的演变规律和可持续发展能力,探析乡村生产空间系统熵变与可持续发展能力之间协同演化过程中的相关关系,设计乡村生产空间系统优化路径。结果表明：（1）2001-2015年重庆市乡村生产空间系统熵流为0.017~-0.049,熵产生为0.204~0.059,均呈下降趋势,乡村生产空间系统的协调性和活力得以增强;总熵变为0.221~0.010,呈相同趋势,乡村生产空间系统有序度不断提高,总体上向健康水平发展。（2）2001-2015年重庆市乡村生产空间系统可持续发展能力得分为1.285~2.803,呈上升趋势,系统可持续发展态势良好,并不断向可持续方向演进。（3）可持续发展能力得分与支持型输入熵、还原型代谢熵正相关,与压力型输出熵、氧化型代谢熵负相关,与熵流、熵产生和总熵变负相关。